ATFX Market Update - 2019.06.14

Personal opinions today:
Today's focus was on U.S. retail sales and U.S. industrial output, following the reading of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index. The performance of the US data affects the dollar and indirectly affects the price of the dollar against other currencies and gold. French CPI monthly and bank of England governor, Carney attended a activity just to watch.
The market expects the US retail sales and the industrial output increased significantly from the previous month. The dollar index rose last night to try 97.05. It is expected to bullish the dollar ahead. However, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index for June is expected to fall continuously, falling below 100 to just expect as 98. Assuming the data could lead the dollar lower, bullish other currencies and gold price.

[Important financial data and events]
14:45 France CPI monthly rate in May
16:00 IEA releases monthly oil market report
20:30 US retail sales monthly rate in May
20:55 BOE Carney attends activity
21:15 U.S. industrial output monthly rate in May
22:00 US business inventory monthly rate for April
22:00 US Michigan consumer confidence index for June

Today suggestion:
EURUSD
1.1290/1.1305 resistance
1.1255/1.1240 support
Eurozone economic data continue to be weak, Germany CPI in May flat, no growth, the overall euro against the dollar trend weak. In addition, the European group meeting, the market focused on how the European group to solve Italy's fiscal deficit and future monetary policy stance, attention to downside risks. Technically, the EURUSD did not break resistance level at 1.1345, while the EURUSD hourly chart still maintains a downward trend. If the EURUSD continues below the 20-hour average without a break, the first target support level is 1.1255 or 1.1240. Investors are watching the European group meeting for any good news and a boost to the euro.

GBPUSD
1.2695/1.2705 resistance
1.2650/1.2635 support
Britain's first round of prime minister-designate elections to select a successor to the next prime minister. Earlier, it was noted that one of the nominees, Johnson, is now the front-runner. He advocates a hard brexit without a deal, which would be bearish for the pound. Yesterday, the trend of GBPUSD fell, technically, GBPUSD initially reached the first support level of 1.2685, looping the next support level of 1.2650. If the euro/sterling short-term adjustment, wait and see key support levels 0.8875 and 0.8840, then testing the 0.90 level.

AUDUSD
0.6920/0.6935 resistance
0.6900/0.6880 support
Australia's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stood at 5.2 percent in May, above market expectations. Bearish the Australian dollar fell against the U.S. dollar. Market sentiment expected, the reserve bank of Australia may cut interest rates further. AUDUSD would testing 0.6900 and 0.6880 support. Reference resistance levels 0.6920 and 0.6935.

USDJPY
108.40/108.55 resistance
108.00/107.85 support
The fed fund rate cut is expected to increase, investment sentiment increasing, bullish Dow future. But the trade war between China and the United States limited Asian stocks. The Nikkei index was weak, USDJPY could be tested at 108.00 or 107.85 support levels respectively. Short-term resistance at 108.40 and 108.55. To collect USDJPY trend, please keeping an eye on how the U.S. Dow and Nikkei momentum and how affected the USDJPY trend.

USDCAD
1.3320/1.3305 support
1.3360/1.3400 resistance
U.S. crude oil prices fell bearish the Canadian dollar. The U.S. dollar broke through 1.3305 against the Canadian dollar, which the trend stalled at 1.3340. If crude oil prices continue to fall, it will further bearish Canadian dollar. Currently reference support levels 1.3315 and 1.3295, resistance 1.3360 and 1.3400.

Us crude oil futures USOIL
52.35/52.95 resistance
51.65/51.25 support
U.S. API crude oil stocks increased, and the trade war between China and the United States and seasonal demand reduces, leading to the decline of crude oil futures prices. Although, the Middle East oil supply affected, seems bullish short - term crude prices. But lower crude oil demand is limiting price increases. Technically, refer to the resistance of 52.35 and 52.95, looking further down at 51.65 and 51.25.

XAUUSD
1346/1348 resistance
1340/1338 support
Fed officials have pushed up gold prices with interest rate cuts and worries about slowing global growth. By the middle of next week, the fed is expected to announce a timetable for rate cuts. Gold's gains are limited if the fed considers cutting interest rates. If the decision to cut interest rates, gold prices have room to rise. We are looking for resistance levels 1346 and 1348 again. Short-term support at $1340 and $1338. Significant support at $1,334.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26250/26320 resistance
25960/25885 support
The Fed fund rate-cutting comments come amid a wait-and-see investment climate ahead of next week's fed meeting, which is expected to limit resistance to the U.S. dow at 26250 and 26320. Positive comments from the fed, though, could lift U.S. stocks. But the continuing trade war between China and the United States is hurting the economic outlook and has opportunities to weigh against stocks. Current reference support bits 25960 and 25885. Key support bit 25620.

BTCUSD:
8350 / 8500 resistance
8020 / 7980 support
Trade tension, US economic data showed slow down. Expected Fed fund rate will cut, bullish the bitcoin. The bitcoin uptrend recently, hit 8270. Now, keeps watching the China and U.S. trade tension. If a positive outlook, bearish the price of Bitcoin. On the contrary, the Bitcoin will continue the uptrend.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

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