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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 September 3
Personal opinions today:
China and the United States begin to impose tariffs on each other, affecting China and the global economy. Australia, which relies on resource commodities to export to China, also has a lot of influence. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced its decision at noon and was widely expected to hold rates at a historic low of 1%. Investors did not consider the RBA cut-rate, but it is worth watching the monetary policy forecast, affecting the Australian dollar.
Eurozone producer prices index for July are released today, and the U.S. has big data and critical report coming. The US Markit manufacturing purchasing managers index and the official US ISM manufacturing purchasing managers index for August, announced today. If the official U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI just below market expectations of 51. It would believe that the market will be acceptable, which will have little impact on the dollar. If it falls below the 50, the effect is enormous. The impact on the U.S. Dow futures market and the US dollar. The more significant impact has been volatility in global equity and bond markets, which has spread to emerging markets and currencies. So it's worth noting. The data could reflect the federal reserve's "beige book" regional economic report on Thursday and the U.S. jobs report for August on Thursday and Friday. Have to watch out for today.
[Important financial data and events]
12:30 The RBA interest rates decision
14:30 Swiss monthly CPI for August
17:00 Eurozone monthly PPI rate for July
21:45 US Markit manufacturing PMI final for August
22:00 US Construction expenditure in July
22:00 U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for August
The next day at 05:00 federal reserve spoke
The nominated to be the next President of the European central bank, and she said the ECB still has room to cut interest rates, which is the reason bearish for the Euro. The Euro lacks the momentum to bounce back the resistance, believe that there is still a chance to continue to fall, low test support. Yesterday, all France, Germany and the Eurozone manufacturing PMI final showed no significant improvement. Germany and the Eurozone manufacturing PMI readings remained below 50 in August, indicating a continued recession. For European markets today, the market focus on Eurozone PPI report, which is unlikely to boost the chances. The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for August was the significant focus of the market today. The US data indirectly affected the Euro. Technically, the downward trend of the Euro has fallen to a correction of 138.2%. In the absence of any Eurozone news, lower support levels of 1.0925 and 1.0895 are available for reference. Only if the Euro recovers its resistance of 1.1005 can it expect a repeat of the rally.
The British prime minister efforts to prevent a no-deal Brexit at the end of October, try to stabilise pound. But opposition MPS and those who support a hard Brexit are strongly opposed. If the UK does not accept the final Brexit plan, believe that bearish the pound. It is recommended to take advantage of the falling in the pound. The current subordinate support level is 1.1942. But a sharp fall in the US. ISM manufacturing PMI in August in today, such as below the 50, it could give the pound a temporary boost if the dollar falls.
The Australian dollar was weak ahead of the RBA policy meeting at noon. The Australian dollar has been trending lower, falling nearly to its lowest level in two weeks. The short-term resistance is subject to 0.6730, and downward support is 0.6705. If the RBA does not present any policy stance today, we hope the AUDUSD will try 0.6730 resistance. If the RBA monetary stance boosts the AUDUSD, resistance can be seen at 0.6745 and 0.6785. Conversely, the Australian dollar could dip to its low of 0.6670 in early 2019 if it considers any negative news. A fall in the dollar today could give a chance , boost to the Australian dollar if the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI falls sharply in August, for example, below the 50.
U.S. markets were closed for the holidays yesterday and the stock market investor sentiment on hold. The Dow back today and the U.S. manufacturing PMI for August is coming. If the data falls below the 50-point mark and global stocks and bonds fall, capital flow to yen, USDJPY fell. Keep watching the Dow futures and Nikkei futures trend, continue to dominate the dollar against the yen. Note today's US market news, drive global stock market changes, indirect impact on the USDJPY.
The Bank of Canada is expected to leave its benchmark rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent when monetary policy decision release tomorrow night. If an unexpected interest rate cut, which will finally trigger fluctuations in the Canadian dollar. Before the bank of Canada rate hike, markets focused on Canada's July trade report. In the past two months, Canada recorded a trade surplus, its first since 2017, boosting the Canadian dollar, which fell to 1.30 from 1.36. If the trade balance is in deficit again, the U.S. dollar could hit $1.34 to $1.35. Also, investors are advised to watch the performance of crude oil prices. A fall in the amount of crude oil would be bearish the Canadian dollar. Technically, the current USDCAD significant resistance at 1.3350. If any negative news bearish Canadian dollar, this resistance has the opportunity to break.
US crude oil futures
As upgrading trade tensions between China and the United States, crude oil demand is falling. Earlier, the U.S. government's offer to negotiate with Iran to ease U.S. sanctions has raised the prospect of an increase in oil supplies. Also, the U.S. consumer confidence index fell, and the US ISM manufacturing PMI is expected to fall, release today, which is harmful to crude oil prices. Markets are watching the results of US data this week, while also looking at oil inventories and cautious investments, adding to downward on oil prices. Technically, crude oil prices yesterday downward hit the first test of 54.50 preliminary support. If the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI unexpectedly falls sharply today in August, it could end up breaking 53.95 support. Short-term resistance references are 55.50 and 56.00
U.S. real GDP in the second quarter was only in line with expectations that the Dow future remained strong and gold prices fell a bit. The US ISM manufacturing PMI is expected to fall following a sharp drop in the US Michigan consumer confidence index final for August. Believe there are opportunities to influence the Dow drop, indirectly to bullish the gold prices. Technically, US$1520 and 1517 are reference supports, and overhead resistance 1530 and 1533. A weak reading in the U.S. manufacturing PMI for August today could influence the results of the beige book regional economic report and U.S. employment data for August. Noting that stocks and expectations of a Fed rate cut are rising, which could affect bullish gold prices.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
The trade tensions again. The US President has once again stressed the coming US and China consultation, which has gradually strained the investment sentiment. Since the US Michigan consumer confidence index fell sharply, and the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI is expected to be weak. If the data terrible, the U.S. beige book and jobs data are coming out this week. Believe that bearish the Dow. Technically, Dow futures are focused on the high of 26535. If the U.S. data is weak and investment sentiment is low, Dow futures may significantly fall, keeps watching the downside risk of the Dow future.
10650 /11150 resistance
10150 / 9850 support
If trade tensions again, bullish the gold price and cryptocurrencies demand. The bitcoin price followed the gold price rose. Yesterday here we mentioned, the US Michigan consumer sentiment index very bad. That could affect the FOMC monetary policy decision; it could cut the interest rate and could let the bitcoin price rise. Focus today, U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI is expected to be weak; the bitcoin price went upward. If the data online, it could reduce the cryptocurrencies demand, the bitcoin would be bearish. Please keep on eyes today.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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