ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Aug 23
Personal opinions today:
FOMC minutes showed monetary policy meeting revealed that fed officials had no plans to start a rate cut cycle. The US President said the US economy is growing, the economy is in good shape and has not been affected by the trade war between China and the US. The Dow remained high, and the dollar index was at 98. Markets watched over the weekend with the annual meeting of Jackson Hole and the G7 summit.
Finance ministers from around the world are holding talks at the annual central bank meeting in Jackson hole today. More critical today in U.S. trading, federal reserve chairman Powell spoke. Markets watched as central bankers around the world expressed concern about the economic impact of the trade war, paying more attention to the Fed's monetary policy implications. Meanwhile, the governors of the European central bank and the bank of England gave speeches to gauge further whether they were dovish or hawkish on monetary policy related Fed, the Eurozone and UK in September. During the global central bank annual meeting, we focused on the Chinese representatives' desire for a trade war with China, with the hope of countering the trade pressure through global central bank governors. The comments could be a clue to the progress of next month's trade talks. The news, positive or negative, had an impact on global stock markets, gold prices and crude oil prices.
[Important financial data and events]
07:30 Japan Core CPI in July
09:00 Jackson hole annual central bank meeting
20:30 Canada Retail Sales in June
22:00 US New Home Sales for July
22:00 Federal reserve chairman Powell speaks
G7 meeting during this weekend through Tuesday
Today suggestion :
The United States July new home sales total and federal reserve chairman Powell speech can affect the dollar, indirectly affect the euro today. From a European central bank, Minutes showed clues to next month's ECB rate meeting. The upcoming annual meeting of global central Banks may have implications for further monetary policy action. The ECB is widely expected to start easing monetary policy in September, keeping the euro below 1.1105 resistance to the dollar. Further confirmation that the ECB is starting policy would be bearish for the euro. Technically, EURUSD preliminary suggested support at 1.1065 and 1.1030, resistance at 1.1105 and 1.1120. In any case, the Jackson Hole and the G7 summit may affect the market opening next Monday, so please keep trading risks under strict control.
Ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting, the British prime minister visited Germany and France to meet with their prime ministers and key members of the European Union group. Curiously, the British prime minister has relented on EU demands and is willing to accept proposed changes to the Irish border backup agreement. As the British prime minister softened his stance, it lifted the pound above the critical 1.2200 level, which was as high as 1.2270. Or, over the weekend, at the Jackson Hole meeting and the G7 summit, the British prime minister could send a positive message, boosting the pound. It is estimated that the preliminary adjustment of the pound today, watching any news at the weekend. It is suggested to pay attention to the support of 1.2210 and 1.2190. If there is good news, it is expected to break 1.2275.
Looking ahead to the annual meetings of Jackson Hole and the G7 summit, there is tension in the markets ahead of next month's US and China trade talks. After all, on the 1st of next month, the US will impose additional tariffs on some of its 300 billion worth of imports from China. Technically, the Australian dollar concerned with 0.6785 resistance can not break through, adjusting, the New Zealand dollar also took advantage of the trend of the Australian dollar. Expect positive news from the two summits, with the Australian and New Zealand dollars getting a boost after the weekend. On the other hand, if the summit is quiet and no improved economic conclusions reached, the Australian and New Zealand dollars may continue to fall.
The Dow kept rising as the Fed released minutes of its July monetary policy meeting, releasing dovish comments, while the dollar traded near 106.65 against the yen, following the Dow and Nikkei. Looking ahead to the annual meetings of Jackson Hole and G7 meetings, the dollar could get a boost against the yen for more good news. And vice versa. Technically, look for dollar resistance to 106.65 yen and 106.80 yen. Whether the dollar can breakthrough against the yen is still the key to the Dow and Nikkei.
Canada reported a monthly increase in wholesale sales in June, adding to the Canadian dollar gain. But crude oil prices fell, offsetting the positive news and the Canadian dollar dropped. Technically, we are keeping a wait-and-see resistance of 1.3330 and 1.3345, and pay attention to 1.3275 and 1.3260 below. Over the weekend, two major summits were held to recommend keeping an eye on crude oil prices, which could affect the Canadian dollar.
US crude oil futures
U.S. API and EIA inventories fell, and crude prices rose. Crude oil prices continued to fall after the FOMC minutes
, no indication that the rate cut cycle had begun and suggested the Fed might not need to cut rates in September. The trade war between China and the United States escalated in early September, with falling crude oil demand also a negative factor. The fundamentals are likely to limit the rise in crude oil prices, with resistance at 56.60 and significant resistance at 57.10. Coupled with weak US economic data yesterday, crude oil prices fell. Fed chairman Powell speech today that it would be hard to see crude oil prices rising without dovish rhetoric.
The FOMC minutes no indication of a September rate cut and the Dow continued its rally, which indirectly weighed on gold prices. Last night, the number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits improved previous week, but weakness in the Markit manufacturing and services PMI readings for August offset each other. Gold could boost if major Finance ministers hint at easing monetary policy, expanding money flows and stimulating their economies. Technically, the gold price in recent months has repeatedly appeared US1492 support, is worth paying attention to. If gold prices rise, the first resistance to $1502 and $1505, or may breakthrough.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
FOMC minutes, the fed said there was little chance of a rate cut next month, failed to lift the Dow, which is adjusting and has not seen a break in its highs. The Jason hole meeting holds through the end of the week from today if major countries hint at easing monetary policy, expanding money flows and stimulating their economies. Or the trade war between China and the United States could cool down, which could boost stocks. If the news is positive, the Dow could move up, hope to 26325 and 26420. But failed, it seems bottom support bit 26060.
10300 /10850 resistance
9850 / 9550 support
FOMC minutes showed there was little chance to do a rate cut in the next FOMC meeting. It perhaps an excuse to bearish cryptocurrencies, bitcoin price fell sharply the day before. The latest U.S. jobless claims and the US Markit manufacturing and services PMI for August seems to fail. Looking trade talks between the US and China during the Jackson hole meeting curt his weekend. If most of Finance minister suggested any easing monetary policy, bullish the bitcoin price and followed the gold price.
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Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Aug 23