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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Aug 7
Personal opinions today:
China and the United States are deadlocked, worries are rising and global stock markets are in a perilous situation. The European currency, the euro, and the Swiss franc are another safe haven after the Japanese yen and gold. European currencies did well and the pound held steady against the dollar. At the moment, the main concern is that trade talks between China and the United States will not be scheduled for September, as investors assess further economic slowdown in Asia and the United States, and safe-haven fund flows to European markets, euro bonds and other safe-haven assets. If there is no good news in the short term, the U.S. President and administration continue to use unjustified threats against China, which is expected to depress global stock markets and boost safe-haven asset prices. If China reports today that its foreign exchange reserves fell in July, especially in the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds, the dollar index could break 97. A fall in the dollar could push up the price of gold, a safe-haven asset. In contrast, industrial precious metals and crude oil prices will fall.
Today in Europe and the US, there are no markets to look forward to. All eyes are on the Dow and the US government's comments. It is believed that no good news announcement will only affect the sentiment of stock market investment, the dollar index and dollar assets fell, safe haven flows into gold, the yen and European currencies. Industrial precious metals and crude oil prices fell.
[Important financial data and events]
10:00 RBNZ interest rate decision
14:00 German industrial output in June
14:45 French trade account for June
15:30 U.K. Halifax house price index in July
16:00 China foreign exchange reserves in July
21:30 Fed Evans moderates the press breakfast
22:30 U.S. EIA crude oil inventories
Europe's economy has yet to see a significant recovery, and recently the U.S. President and administration have often used to threaten China, forcing the trade war between China and the United States to heat up, capital inflows to European currencies. While there is no economic reason for European currencies to rise, safe-haven inflows can keep them from falling. Believe the trend of the euro indirectly affected the Swiss franc trend. At present, the trade war between China and the United States has not improved, Euro is expected to rise to 1.1285 or higher.
Although Britain faces the risk of a hard Brexit at the end of October, it is bearish for the pound. But as the trade war between China and the United States heats up, undermining the strength of the dollar, pound could rebound. Yesterday, British pound was once attracted by safe-haven money inflows, and the pound was quoted at 1.22 against the U.S. dollar, in line with the expectation of this analysis yesterday. Technically, currently, the trade war between China and the United States has not improved, and it is not supported by good data from the United States. The Dow has fallen, European currencies are likely to see a high line, British pound may again test around the 1.22 level, and key resistance levels can be seen at 1.2245. Of course, when investing in the pound, you also need to take into account the news of Brexit negotiations between the EU and the British government, and judge the trend of good news and bad news, bullish or bearish the pound.
Rising trade between China and the United States hurt China's economy and hurt the economies and exports of Australia and New Zealand, with the Australian and New Zealand dollars falling respectively. But the New Zealand dollar fell today as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates by 50 basis points in response to a weak global economy. In addition, the trade war between China and the United States is heating up further, and the decline of the RMB may affect the decline of the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar. Attention please!
The Dow, the Nikkei and the USDJPY were roughly in line, as risk aversion increased and stocks fell, while the dollar fell against the yen. Technically, pay attention to 106.50 and 106.70 resistance. The market is waiting to see if the trade war between China and the United States can cool down. If relations between the two sides improve, the Dow and Nikkei could rebound and the dollar could test resistance of 106.50 and 106.70 against the yen. If not, go down to 105.
The trade war between China and the United States has escalated, and crude oil inventories have surged. If the short-term trade war between China and the United States is not resolved, it will be difficult to lift the price of U.S. crude oil. The drop in crude oil prices indirectly affected the Canadian dollar's decline. Technically, the USDCAD will probably test 1.33 and likely approach 1.34.
US oil crude futures
China and the United States trade upgrade, crude oil inventories rose sharply. The slowdown in crude oil demand began as early as last week when the U.S. and China failed to negotiate. If crude futures break $53.20, it could technically hit $52.65 and $51.85. Pay close attention to the trade war between China and the United States, and judge the trend based on good and bad news, bullish or bearish the crude oil price .
US President Donald Trump has announced in the media that he will impose 10 percent tariffs on the remaining 300 billion dollars of Chinese imports. The U.S. government lists China as a currency manipulator. U.S. - China trade talks stalled, Dow, Nikkei fell, gold bullish. Technically, gold could hit another $1,500 barrier if the lack of positive news to boosts market sentiment and eases risk aversion. Investors can look to the Dow and the Nikkei to gauge sentiment and the price of gold.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
As the trade war between China and the United States heats up and the U.S. government declares China a currency manipulator, the investment panic is growing. Yesterday, the Dow fell to a low of 25,035. Spurred by the news, China has no intention of enforcing a strike, boosting the dow by 26, 000. The Dow could fall further if the US President does not resolve the impasse and continue to spoil the talks. Target expected 25370 and 25035 support.
11850 / 12300 resistance
10850 / 10600 support
As the trade war between China and US heats up, Dow and other major stocks fell, hedge fund inflows to other capital market, bearish US dollar and bullish bitcoin. If the sentiment continues, bullish bitcoin and other crypto currencies may following. Recommend check out the trends of gold price and compares the bitcoin price.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
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Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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