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ATFX Update Market - 2019.08.06


Personal opinions today:

The escalating trade war between the United States and China, raising concerns. European currencies the euro and the Swiss franc followed the yen and gold as safe havens in a trade battle between the United States and China. Last night, before the US market closed, the Dow and the US dollar were further after the US government declared China a currency manipulator. The yen and gold first broke through recent highs, while the Euro and Swiss franc rebounded. If there is no good news in the short term, the U.S. government continues to threaten China with unreasonable, global stock markets continue to fall, and the prices of the above-mentioned safe-haven assets will probably rise further. The dollar index is now at 97 and could fall further if Washington fails to resolve the situation. As the dollar continues to fall, crypto currencies could also be pushed higher.

The reserve bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to cut interest rates this afternoon as worried trade war between China and the United States could weigh on growth prospects. The Australian and New Zealand dollars have fallen recently, and if the RBA cuts rates, the RBNZ could follow tomorrow, with the Australian and New Zealand dollars likely to fall further. Conversely, if the RBA holds rates unchanged today and the RBNZ does the same tomorrow, it is likely to boost the respective currencies. In addition, it is noteworthy that the information office of the state council of China held a press conference today. If it involves the recent heated up trade war between China and the United States, it is worth paying attention to how the country should respond or fight back. It also looks at how it affects Asian stock futures and U.S. Dow futures, currency and gold prices.

[Important financial data and events]

12:30 The Reserve bank of Australia interest rates decision
16:00 China the state council Press conference
24:00 EIA releases its monthly short-term energy outlook
24:00 Fed bullard speaks
Next day at 04:30 US API crude oil stock change

Today suggestion :

1.1265/1.1285 resistance
1.1195/1.1175 support
Europe has yet to see a significant recovery, but the Euro and Swiss franc have strengthened. The biggest reason is that the recent US President threats against China have forced the trade war to heat up, with European currencies becoming another safe haven. This recent analysis suggests that china-us trade talks cannot continue and are seriously damaging to the us economy. The downside risk to the euro has been mitigated by key U.S. data, with resistance levels expected to rise to 1.1145 and 1.1165. Believe the trend of the euro indirectly affected the Swiss franc trend. If China's state council information office holds a press conference today, it will escalate the trade war between China and the United States. European currencies are expected to move higher, with the euro target at 1.1285 or higher.

1.2195/1.2225 resistance
1.2125/1.2105 support
Britain faces the risk of a hard Brexit at the end of October, despite the negative impact on the pound. However, as the trade war between China and the us heats up, the US government has taken the initiative to damage the strength of the dollar, and the British pound may take the opportunity to rebound. Technically, the adjustment to 1.2065 after the end of the trend reversal, the rebound wave can refer to the resistance level 1.2170. If the trade war between China and US risk aversion again, pound could continue to test around 1.22, with key resistance levels at 1.2245.

0.6805/0.6825 resistance
0.6745/0.6725 support
Risk aversion on trade between China and the United States, the Australian and New Zealand dollars falling respectively. The Australian dollar still has a chance to fall as the RBA meeting today and markets worry about another rate cut. Tomorrow, RBNZ interest rate decision. Keep an eye on RBA decision for reference. If the RBA says it may cut interest rates, it could also hurt the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

106.50/106.70 resistance
105.65/105.45 support
Yesterday, the U.S. government announced that China is a currency manipulator, and it is expected that the September trade talks between China and the United States may not be held, damaging the investment market and sentiment. The Dow and Nikkei fell and risk aversion, while the dollar fell against the yen. Technically, the dollar has dipped to 105.50 yen. For now, look for 106.50 and 106.70 resistance. The market watched as China's state council information office held a news conference, and if the Chinese counterattacked and the Dow and Nikkei suffered, the dollar could dip 105 levels against the yen.

1.3225/1.3245 resistance
1.3175/1.3155 support
As the trade war between China and the US risk aversion, US President Donald Trump has announced that he will impose 10% tariffs on the remaining 300 billion us dollars of Chinese imports starting from September 1, and may impose 25% or more. If the short-term trade war between China and the United States is not resolved, it will be difficult to lift the price of U.S. crude oil. The drop in crude oil prices indirectly affected the Canadian dollar decline. Technically, the U.S. dollar will continue to test 1.32 against the Canadian dollar. It is estimated that the USDCAD is adjusted, and the first targets 1.3175 and 1.3155 are supported. If crude oil prices fall, the USDCAD could see resistance of 1.3245.

US crude oil futures
55.50/56.00 resistance
53.85/53.35 support
Trade between China and the US has risk aversions, with the US imposing 10 % tariffs on the remaining $300bn of Chinese imports from September 1. A slowdown in oil demand could begin at any time, with crude oil futures trading at or below $55, a technical dip of $53.65. It is recommended to pay close attention to the amount of API crude oil inventories change tomorrow.

1472/1476 resistance
1456/1453 support
US President Donald Trump has announced in the media that he will impose 10 % tariffs on the remaining 300 billion dollars of Chinese imports on September 1. Last night the US government added China to its list of currency manipulators. The Dow, the Nikkei fell and gold price was bullish as markets predicted to stop in U.S. - China trade talks. Technically, gold could hit another $1,472 and $1,476 resistance conservatively if the lack of positive news boosts equities and risk off. Investors can look to the Dow and the Nikkei fall and the gold price rise.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
25515/25670 resistance
25035/24730 support
As the trade war between China and the United States heats up, the US President has announced the imposition of 10% tariffs on the remaining $300 billion of Chinese imports from September 1, with the possibility of 25% or more as the case may be. The Dow fell again as panic mounted after the U.S. government declared China a currency manipulator. The Dow could dip further to 25,035 or 24,730 if there is no significant growth data to back it up or good news to ease the mood. It could fall further if the US President does not resolve the impasse.

11850 / 12300 resistance
10850 / 10600 support
As the trade war between China and US heats up, US President Trump announced that impose 10% tariffs on the remaining 300 billion US dollars of Chinese imports, and may impose 25% or more tariffs. The main reason that Dow and other major stocks fell, bearish US dollar, bullish bitcoin. If the sentiment continues, bullish bitcoin and other crypto currencies may following.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

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Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

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