ATFX Update Market - 2019.08.05

Personal opinions today:

Earlier, US President Donald Trump announced that an additional 10% tariff is to be paid on the remaining $300 billion worth of Chinese imports from September 1, and it is even likely to be raised to 25%. US Non-farm payrolls were only in line with expectations but lower than last month. This time, the US President is extending the requisitioned tariffs to cover most consumer goods and electronics goods that the United States imports from China. It is difficult for the US to maintain low inflation and high growth in the future. After the trade war escalated again, the market looked forward to global economic recovery expectations. U.S. jobs are being lost and the trade war is escalating. Another slowdown in the U.S. economy could weaken the dollar and U.S. corporate earnings, triggering a new financial crisis that could shake the greenback.

After China July Caixin service sector PMI announce today, the focus of the afternoon will be on the European and U.S. service sector PMI and the U.S. non-manufacturing PMI for July. The U.S. July ISM non-manufacturing PMI can influence the dollar, while gold and crude oil prices could be affected. Watch the RBA meeting tomorrow and the RBNZ meeting the day after.

[important financial data and events]

09:45 China Caixin service sector PMI, July
13:45 Swiss Consumer confidence index, July
14:30 Swiss Retail sales in June
15:50 French Service sector PMI, July
15:55 German Service PMI, July
16:00 Eurozone services PMI, July
16:30 Eurozone Sentix sentiment index for August
16:30 UK Services PMI, July
21:45 U.S. Markit Service PMI, July
22:00 U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI July

Today suggestion:

EURUSD
1.1145/1.1165 resistance
1.1105/1.1085 support
European markets today focused on the final July PMI readings for France, Germany and the Eurozone, as well as Swiss consumer confidence for July and actual retail sales for June. While these data are not the market's primary concern, they can still affect the euro. Technically, after the big U.S. data, the downside risk for the euro was tempered by reference to support at 1.1105 and 1.1085, with resistance at 1.1145 and 1.1165. Believe that the trend of the euro indirectly affect the Swiss franc trend, is worth paying attention to.

GBPUSD
1.2195/1.2225 resistance
1.2125/1.2105 support
Britain faces the risk of a hard Brexit at the end of October, less than three months away, despite the negative impact on the pound. Us non-farm payrolls data for July were only in line with expectations. As this analysis showed last week, the dollar ended strong, the pound has the opportunity to rise. In addition, the trade war between China and the United States is heating up. The United States is taking the initiative to requisitioning imported goods. It is estimated that the dollar is going weakening, and the pound may rebound under the circumstance. Technically, after the adjustment of the pound to 1.2065, the trend reverses, the rebound wave can refer to the resistance level 1.2170, if continue to test the 1.22 level, the key resistance level can refer to 1.2245.

AUDUSD
0.6805/0.6820 resistance
0.6745/0.6725 support
Since US President Donald Trump announced impose 10% tariffs on the remaining 300 billion US dollars of Chinese imports, China and US trade wars has been heating up, hurting China and affecting the economies and exports of Australia and New Zealand. The Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar have fallen respectively. The Australian dollar fell on fears of another rate cut after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut interest rates tomorrow. On Wednesday, Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meets to watch the trade war between the United States and China heat up and the central bank may cut interest rates, which could continue to hurt the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

USDJPY
106.50/106.70 resistance
105.65/105.45 support
US President Donald Trump has announced a 10% tariff on the remaining 300 billion US dollars of Chinese imports. U.S. job data for July was lower than the previous month, suggesting the economy may have contracted. The Nikkei and Dow fell and risk aversion rose, while the dollar fell against the yen. Technically, support for the original first target of 106.75 or 106.55 has been breached, possibly looking down at 105 level. If good news eases or the Dow rebounds, look first for 106.50 and 106.70 resistance.

USDCAD
1.3245/1.3265 resistance
1.3195/1.3175 support
As the trade war between China and the us escalates, US President Donald trump has announced that he will impose 10% tariffs on the remaining 300 billion us dollars of Chinese imports starting from September 1, and may impose 25% or more tariffs as the case may be. If the trade war between China and the United States is not resolved, it will be difficult to lift the price of U.S. crude oil. The drop in crude oil prices indirectly affected the Canada dollar decline. Technically, the U.S. dollar will continue to test 1.32 against the Canadian dollar. It is estimated that the USDCAD is adjusted after the results of the US job data, and the first targets 1.3195 and 1.3175 are supported. If crude oil prices fall, the U.S. dollar could see resistance of 1.3265 against the Canadian dollar.

US crude oil futures
55.70/56.30 resistance
53.65/52.85 support
US imposing 10 % tariffs on the remaining US$300bn of Chinese imports from September 1. A slowdown in oil demand could begin at any time, with crude oil futures trading at $55 or below a further $53.65. Crude oil prices are now stable after key U.S. data and are expected to test resistance of 55.70 or 56.30. But expectations of slower demand for crude oil could limit the price rise.

XAUUSD
1452/1456 resistance
1436/1433 support
US President Donald trump has announced that impose 10% tariffs on the remaining 300 billion US dollars of Chinese imports on September 1. The Dow fell, the Nikkei fell and gold rallied. Technically, gold could see resistance at $1,452 and $1,456 if the lack of positive news boosts stocks and eases risk aversion. Investors can look to the Dow and the Nikkei to gauge sentiment and the price of gold.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26515/26770 resistance
26335/26230 support
As the trade war between China and the United States heats up, the US President has announced the imposition of 10% tariffs on the remaining $300 billion of Chinese imports from September 1, with the possibility of 25% or more as the case may be. If there is no significant growth data or good news to support, the Dow is likely to dip 26230, the next level may be 26030. The Dow could fall further if the President doesn't resolve the impasse.

BTCUSD:
11850 / 12300 resistance
10850 / 10600 support
As the trade war between China and US heats up, US President Trump announced that impose 10% tariffs on the remaining 300 billion US dollars of Chinese imports, and may impose 25% or more tariffs. Dow is keeping fall and bearish US dollar, bullish bitcoin.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

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Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

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