ATFX Update Market - 2019.08.02

Personal opinions today:

Before the market waits for the US official non-farm payrolls data, US President Trump announced in the media at about that he will impose 10% tariffs on the remaining 300 billion us dollars of Chinese imports, which will take effect on September 1. , 25% or more depending on progress. Dow down 600 points, gold at $1,449 and the dollar at 107 against the yen. The China renminbi fell, hitting 6.97 against the dollar, near its high of a year ago. Australia and New Zealand, which have close trading partners of China, Australian and New Zealand dollars also fell. European currencies benefited from the escalating trade war between China and the United States, with the Euro and pound supported. But U.K. faced with the risk of a hard brexit by the end of October, the euro is stronger. We believe that the global stock market is facing downside risks as the trade war between China and the United States escalates. At the same time, European market investors are likely to put their money into the gold, probably bullish gold.

The important today are the official U.S. nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for July. With ADP payrolls rising to 150, 000 in July, the market is looking conservatively for 160,000 to 180, 000 for the non-farm payrolls. If it can break through this figure, believe bullish dollar. But the more important figure, the July average earnings, is worth watching. If average wages rise or fall only slightly, the dollar is immediately bearish.

On the whole, if the US job data is strong, it will not remove the pressure to escalate the trade war between China and the US. Investors are also likely to focus on U.S. factory orders for June and the final reading of the Michigan consumer confidence index for July after U.S. jobs data are released tonight. Current estimates of the dollar trend is not optimistic, may favor European currencies. If the Dow falls further, gold price and the yen will rise.

[Important financial data and events]

14:30 Swiss monthly CPI for July
17:00 Eurozone PPI and retail sales rates for June
20:30 U.S. non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate for July
20:30 U.S. trade account for June
22:00 US factory orders monthly rate in June
22:00 US Michigan consumer confidence index for July

Today suggestion:

EURUSD
1.1125/1.1150 resistance
1.1060/1.1035 support
In Europe, June PPI and retail sales and July CPI in Switzerland were among the markets to watch. The eurozone manufacturing PMI edged up yesterday, suppose June PPI and retail sales improved, bullish the euro. The euro is likely to be volatile ahead of U.S. nonfarm payrolls for July. If U.S. nonfarm payrolls are only in line with expectations and average wages not rise, that could be bullish for the euro. Technically, the euro is influenced by important U.S. data, with reference to support levels 1.1060 and 1.1035, while resistance levels are expected to rise to 1.1125 and 1.1150. Believe that the trend of the euro indirectly affect the Swiss franc trend, is worth paying attention to.

GBPUSD
1.2145/1.2170 resistance
1.2085/1.2065 support
The British prime minister has decided to renegotiate with the European Union. Markets expect the talks to last only three months. In the short term, however, it is worth watching for U.S. nonfarm payrolls and average wage growth in July. If the results are only as expected, the pound will have a chance to rise. In addition, the trade war between China and the United States is heating up, and the dollar is also expected to be fall, which may give the British pound a chance to rebound. Technically, pound adjusts the wave support level to reference 1.2065 and the reference resistance level to reference 1.2170, with the possibility of testing the 1.22 level.

AUDUSD
0.6830/0.6850 resistance
0.6785/0.6765 support
The Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar fell yesterday as worries mounted over the lack of progress in China and US trade talks. US President Trump announced in the media that he will impose 10% tariffs on the remaining 300 billion USD of Chinese imports, hurting the Australian and New Zealand economies and exports. The Australian and New Zealand dollars fell again. The market, though, is watching US non-farm payrolls data, the unemployment rate and average wages. Without a big jump in the US data, the dollar is expected to fall. After all the data in the United States today, it is worth watching the RBA interest rate meeting next Tuesday and the RBNZ rate meeting next Wednesday, watching the trade war between China and the United States heat up, the central bank may cut interest rates, limit the Australian and New Zealand dollars, and may continue to fall.

USDJPY
107.50/107.70 resistance
106.75/106.55 support
Before the market waits for the US non-farm payrolls data, US President Trump announced in the media that he will impose 10% tariffs on the remaining 300 billion dollars of Chinese imports. The Nikkei stock index and the Dow plunged and risk aversion on, while the dollar fell against the yen. If the China-US trade war heats up and keep going on, USDJPY may test supported by 106.75 or 106.55, and is more likely to be supported by 106.05. If good news issues or the Dow rebounds, look first for 107.50 and 107.70 resistance.

USDCAD
1.3245/1.3265 resistance
1.3195/1.3175 support
After the 12th China and US trade negotiations, US President Trump announced in the media that he would impose 10% tariffs on the remaining 300 billion us dollars of Chinese imports on September 1, and may impose 25% or more tariffs as the case may be. If the trade war between China and the United States is not resolved, it will be difficult to lift the price of U.S. crude oil. The drop in crude oil prices indirectly affected the Canadian dollar decline. Technically, the USDCAD is trading at 1.32. Current for the USDCAD are adjusted ahead of the U.S. employment results, with first targets 1.3195 and 1.3175 supported. If crude oil prices fall, the U.S. dollar could see resistance of 1.3265 against the Canadian dollar.

US crude oil futures
55.70/56.30 resistance
53.30/52.20 support
The 12th trade talks has ended with no progress. The fed's chairman said there were no plans to cut interest rates in the long run, which indirectly the oil prices losses. Suddenly, US President Trump announced in the media that on September 1, he would impose 10% tariffs on the remaining $300 billion of Chinese imports, and may impose 25% or more tariffs as the case may be. Crude oil futures tumbled, dipping to $55 support after falling as low as $53.63. Crude oil futures could fall further after the Michigan consumer confidence index if fell unexpectedly in July. On the other hand, crude oil prices are stable, expected to test 55.70 or 56.30 resistance.

XAUUSD
1437/1445 resistance
1428/1420 support
US President Trump has announced in the media that he will impose tariffs of 10% on the remaining 300 billion US dollars of Chinese imports on September 1, and may impose tariffs of 25% or more as the case may be. The Dow fell as much as 600 points as panic. Gold rallied as gold gained. Gold is currently holding at $1,437 to support at $1,428, pending U.S. job data today, U.S. factory orders for June and U.S. Michigan consumer sentiment for July. If U.S. economic data falls a lot, gold could hit $1,445 and $1,449. On the contrary, the price of gold is expected to drop to $1,420 or below. It's about economic data and the sentiment, where investors can look to the Dow sentiment and catch up the gold prices moving in the opposite direction.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26755/26860 resistance
26335/26230 support
As the trade war between China and the us heats up, US President Trump, ignoring the market panic, announced in the media on September 1 that he would impose 10% tariffs on the remaining 300 billion US dollars of Chinese imports, and may impose 25% or more tariffs as the case may be. The fear grew, and the Dow fell again. Currently, if there is no significant growth data support or good news to ease the atmosphere, the Dow is likely to dip 26335, the overall adjustment wave calculation, the next level may be 26030.

BTCUSD:
10850 / 11200 resistance
10200 / 10000 support
As the trade war between China and the us heats up, US President Trump, ignoring the market panic, announced in the media on September 1 that he would impose 10% tariffs on the remaining 300 billion US dollars of Chinese imports, and may impose 25% or more tariffs as the case may be. The fear grew, and the Dow fell again. Currently, if there is no significant growth data support or good news to ease the atmosphere, the Dow is likely to deeply fall. Bearish US dollar, bullish bitcoin. Keep watching non-farm payroll and US President Trump’s messages, aware these situations affected the crypto market.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

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Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

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