Personal opinions today:
The FOMC meeting held next week, followed earlier by US retail sales and Michigan consumer confidence rose, the market expected that the fed would cut rates less than 0.5% at the end of the month, US dollar strength. Meanwhile, the election of a British prime minister tomorrow and the European central bank's interest rate meeting on Thursday. It’s seems Europe fund flows into the dollar.
Today's market attention, Canada wholesale sales and the U.S. Chicago Fed national activity index. More importantly, the conservative government will announce the British prime minister tomorrow and make a speech. At that point, the new prime minister is likely to announce his policy on Brexit, and if the prime minister shows that extending the Brexit deadline could bearish the pound.
[Important financial data and events]
20:30 Canada wholesale sales in May
20:30 US Chicago Fed national activity index for June
U.S. economic and inflation data came in higher than market expectations, with the dollar rebounding after the fed cut interest rates by less than half a percentage point. The European central bank (ECB) announced its policy decision on Thursday, with monetary easing expectations and a rise in the money supply, bearish for the euro. Last week this analysis, the EURUSD pointed to technical test 1.1270 and 1.1285. The Eurozone economy was weak, U.S. economic data was better than expected, and the euro failed to break through resistance and fell. The weakness of the euro indirectly affected the Swiss franc. Currently, the euro is testing support for 1.1190. If pound losses intensify, that could affect the EUR or breakout support at 1.1190.
Fed officials recommended a rate cut, but the U.S. economy, inflation and the labor market remained positive in June, with the fed likely to cut rates by less than half a percentage point at the end of the month and the dollar's losses pared. In addition, the British conservative party leader and new prime minister tomorrow, if Johnson win, the negative impact of pound, it has the opportunity to test 1.2380 support. Resistance levels of 1.2525 or 1.2545 are currently recommended. The first phase supports bit references 1.2480 and 1.2460.
The federal reserve would be cut interest rates by just a quarter percent at the end of the month, not half percent. The dollar lost ground and the Australian dollar indirectly fell. The market is awaiting a speech tomorrow from RBA assistant chairman Kent and the Australia consumer confidence index. Technically, it is recommended to pay attention to the downward trend in AUDUSD, 0.7045 and 0.7065 resistance. First support bit ranges 0.7025 and 0.7005. Expect the trend of AUDUSD, the same impact on the trend of the dollar.
The dollar rose as market estimates narrowed the fed's rate cut at the end of the month. Nikkei index rose as the country's prime minister won nearly half the seats in a parliamentary election and the dollar gained support against the yen. Technically, the dollar has hit its first target resistance of 107.95 and 108.15 yen. It is worth noting that if the Dow and Nikkei performance rise, the related index rise, will be expected to lead the dollar against the yen trend. Recent resistance against the yen, 108.30 and 108.60 is worth watching.
The Canada existing home sales fell in June. Yesterday, Canada reported that the monthly rate of CPI fell in June. Canadian retail sales also fell in May, well below market expectations. Canada wholesale sales expected fell at a monthly rate in May. Ahead of the results, the Canadian dollar may continue to be bearish. If crude oil prices rise, there are opportunities to boost the Canadian dollar. At present, the technical trend, relatively concerned about 1.3085 and 1.3105 resistance.
US crude oil futures
The lack of progress in China and US trade talks, combined with negative comments from the U.S. President, is still weighing on oil demand expectations. If the tension between Iran and US eases, crude oil supplies rise, the estimated negative crude oil prices. Current technical trend, U.S. crude oil futures remain above 55.40 and 54.90 support, the trend is expected to test 57.15 or challenge 57.40 resistance. But the overall trend is still pessimistic, note the downside risk.
Last Thursday, the COMEX contract jumped 1.7 per cent, pushing gold prices to around $1,453. After the Michigan consumer confidence index was higher than previous readings, and the federal reserve clarified its rate cut comments, and the market estimated a narrower rate cut, while the dollar rose, gold prices adjusted sharply. Coming this week, the US releases a number of key data, and reflecting the FOMC decision, note the gold price would fluctuations. The recommendation focuses on key support at $1,411 and resistance at $1,443.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
U.S. Michigan consumer confidence rose, inflation data in line up, and market estimates of the fed's rate cut narrowed, bearish Dow. In addition, China and US relations still can not recover, and the situation between the US and Iran tensions uncertainty, which affects investment sentiment. The Dow future broke through 27235 and testing 27090 support. Technically, the recent trend of the Dow test resistance failure, investment sentiment down, Dow is down and testing 27090 support. If this support is break, the next level of reference support is 27010.
10850 / 11150 resistance
10050 / 9850 support
US economy growth over the market expected. The Fed still have chance to cut rate in this end of month. It is suppose bearish US dollar, bullish bitcoin. Technically, the bitcoin price back to US$10,000 above. Now the dovish speech from Fed officials, Fed officials said interest rates should be cut early before the recession that will attract fund inflow to crypto currencies. If its noise continued, the Fed will cut rate in this end of month. Assuming the bitcoin probably test US12000.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.
Personal opinions today: