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ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Mar 23
Personal opinions today:
Many countries in Europe and the United States have imposed restrictions on entry and exit, and many cities have restricted their residents from leaving their homes. Central Banks around the world have responded actively to the downside risks of the economy, and repeatedly launched measures to rescue the market and stimulate the economy. European countries are seriously affected, capital flows to the US Treasury bonds and the US dollar, the dollar index rose. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has announced its bond-buying program today ahead of its scheduled meeting on Wednesday. Now investors are waiting to see if Canada follows suit.
The global recession is severe, and Morgan Stanley, a big investment firm, expects the U.S. economy to plunge 30% in the second quarter. Over the weekend, US Congress voted on a new package of economic stimulus measures, facing the failure of negotiations between the two parties. Early in the morning in Asia, the DOW futures fell, triggering another circuit breaker. Gold climbed as high as $1,507 and silver followed suit, rising as high as $12.65. The dollar fell against the yen to 110.25 from 111.20. It is believed that for the outbreak and the economy, countries will announce new plans from time to time, please pay attention to the stock, gold and currency fluctuations.
[Important financial data and events to watch]
Note: * denotes importance
15:00 German import prices in February * *
16:00 Swiss current account in Q4 * *
20:30 Canada wholesale sales in January* *
20:30 US Chicago Fed national activity index for February * *
23:00 European consumer confidence index for March * *
With the European central bank's $750 billion bond-buying programs, investors see it as helpless for the European economy. Europe's outbreak and economic outlook are uncertain, European capital outflows into dollar assets, bearish euro. After breaking through 1.0855 support, the euro continued to lose momentum. Investors are on the lookout for the next level of support, 1.0570, and are more likely to test the 2017 low of 1.0500. Technically, it is recommended to refer to the euro/dollar 4-hour chart, keeping an eye on the 10 and 20 moving average trends and referring to resistance levels.
The pound to the dollar
The current outbreak, the British finance minister launched the rescue measures, still failed to rescue the British economy. British Prime Minister said a wider policy of separation could be considered, limiting the scope of residents' travel and contact with each other. Markets expect the Bank of England to roll out other fed measures at any time. Believe that the GBP/USD is likely to try lower levels, the initial target of 1.1485 or 1.1465 support. The first short-term resistance level for sterling against the dollar is 1.1695.
Australian dollar/US dollar
New cases of pneumonia rose in Australia as the Reserve Bank of Australia stepped up its program to buy government bonds, freeing up a $50 billion in liquidity, but stopped short of announcing other stimulus measures. Believe that the RBA release of funds, there are still follow-up measures to be launched, will continue to be bearish Australian dollar. Technically, the Australian dollar has seen 0.5515 support against the US dollar, the short - term outlook on the important resistance to 0.5885. Suggest that important resistance failed to break, the Australian dollar continued to test low against the US dollar.
Dollar to Japanese yen
Global central bank monetary and fiscal policy measures, investors believe that the Bank of Japan will follow. In Asian trading today, the USDJPY as tried last week 111.35 resistance failed. With global stocks falling, the dollar is expected to have another chance to test Friday's low of 109.35 yen.
US dollar/Canadian dollar
1.4360/1.4340 support level
The Canadian dollar rose after crude oil prices rebounded after a slump. Believe that the USDCAD continues to be dominated by oil prices. Technically, the U.S. dollar is trading at $1.43 to $1.45 against the Canadian dollar.
US crude oil futures
The start of quantitative easing by the federal reserve and a second effort by the U.S. government to stimulate the economy could help stabilize oil prices. But after Congress failed to pass a stimulus bill over the weekend, it is believed that oil prices could fall to $20 before buying is supported. U.S. crude futures could see the resistance of 25.95 or 26.25 if congress finally votes to pass the bill.
The United States announced emergency measures to increase the size of the repurchase of Treasury bonds and rescue funds. The federal reserve started quantitative easing and cut interest rates, investors estimated more bullish gold prices. Current estimates, global monetary policy is still to increase the intensity of easing measures, gold prices are expected to continue to rise. Technically, at the $1,450 level, there has been a lot of buying support and it is worth buying gold at the relevant level. Technically, short-term volatility can refer to $1474 or $1471 support and $1507 or $1510 resistance. Note that the recent volatility of gold prices, pay attention to money management.
Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
The outbreak affected investor confidence and corporate profits, but the fed's launch of quantitative easing failed to save the economy. But dow futures continued to fall after congress failed to pass a stimulus bill over the weekend. Keeping an eye out for signs of an easing of the pneumonia epidemic in Europe and the United States, and whether the U.S. Congress continues to vote on another stimulus bill, is key. If passed, it could provide a short-term boost to the stock market.
6550/ 6800 resistance
5650 / 5500 support
The federal reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 100 basis points and start a worth $700bn in the QE program. Technically, the bitcoin price would rebound. The bitcoin price is looking for $6550 or $6800 resistance.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices
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