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ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Mar 6
Personal opinions today:
The U.S. non-farm payrolls data for February release tonight focused on the number of non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate, and average hourly wages. The prior day, the U.S. ADP payroll in February was 183,000, and the expectation is that February non-farm payrolls may be lower than that. In addition, the unemployment rate is expected to rise and average hourly wages to fall in early February. Dow index and the dollar fell last night as investors prepared for potentially weak US jobs data. Dow futures and the dollar are likely to bounce lower and crude oil prices could rise if U.S. jobs data is in line with expectations. If Dow futures rebound, gold prices and a host of currencies fell against the dollar.
[Important financial data and events to watch]
Note: * denotes importance
15:45 France January trade account *
16:30 UK Halifax house price index in February **
16:30 OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting **
21:30 U.S. trade account and unemployment rate ***
21:30 U.S. February non-farm payrolls ***
23:00 U.S. January wholesale sales **
The next day 03:00 Fed Williams attend a meeting **
(U.S. daylight time starts next Monday, U.S. market opening and data release time is one hour earlier)
The dollar fell as markets watched tonight's U.S. nonfarm payrolls data, investors were cautious and Treasury prices fell. But the ECB has yet to signal that the Euro is stronger. It's worth noting that the Euro has a chance to fall against the dollar if the dollar adjusts after tonight's U.S. nonfarm data. Next Thursday, before the ECB interest rates decision. Investors are likely to adjust their positions for an ECB rate cut or other easing measures to limit the euro's gains against the dollar and more likely to fall. It is recommended to note initial significant resistance, 1.1255.
British Pound to the dollar
The dollar fell, with sterling breaking through resistance at $1.2900. Separately, Britain's finance minister said there were no plans to cut interest rates. Comments from the incoming finance minister that he plans to step up measures to stimulate the economy bullish the pound. But on the other hand, trade talks between Britain and the EU continue to stall. The British prime minister says he's doing all he can to get a good deal for Britain. Tonight's U.S. job data could be a test of the British pound.
Australia Q4 GDP beat market expectations at an annualized rate and the U.S. federal reserve cut interest rates sharply. The Australian dollar rebounded against the U.S. dollar but remained technically limited at 0.66 and around 0.6635. The Australian dollar is likely to fall against the greenback after the dollar's fall eased tonight after U.S. payrolls for February. The AUDUSD could test support at 0.6565 or 0.6555 against the U.S. dollar if U.S. job data remains strong tonight.
Dollar to Japanese yen
The dollar's fall against the yen widened in March as investors grew more concerned about the prospect of weak U.S. jobs data for February, and as Japan's fiscal year saw funds flow back into the country and back into the yen with safe-haven fund flows into the yen as well. Technically, USDJPY at 106.85 is an important support level, the trend can test 105.65, more likely to test last year's low of 104.65. If U.S. job data remains strong tonight and Dow futures rebound, the dollar could try another 106.85 yen resistance.
US dollar/Canadian dollar
The Bank of Canada followed the federal reserve in cutting interest rates by half a basis point and the U.S. dollar was flat against the Canadian dollar, with resistance to the greenback pedaling near 1.3430. Separately, investors were expecting OPEC and energy ministers to meet to discuss an agreement to cut production. Russia has tentatively agreed to OPEC’s intention to cut output, and whether a decision will be made over the weekend, investors are expecting crude prices to rise, with an indirect bullish for the Canadian dollar. Technically, the reference USDCAD resistance level 1.3430, looking down 1.3310 support.
US crude oil futures
OPEC and energy ministers meeting to discuss cutting production in the hope that an agreement will be reached. In addition, after the federal reserve, the Central Banks of Australia and Canada cut interest rates, other Central Banks are believed to follow suit and oil prices are expected to rebound. If U.S. job data, nonfarm payrolls, and the unemployment rate are in the range expected by investors tonight, they could be the first to lift oil prices. To calculate the cyclical technical rebound, if 50% is $49.15, if 62% is $50.45, if 73.6% is nearly $51.75.
U.S. Job data for February is likely to be weak, Dow futures fell, and gold price continued its rally. Technically, gold price breaks the first level of significant resistance at $1,665, which is testing resistance at $1,680. Watch out for the most critical technical resistance at $1,690. If U.S. non-farm payrolls data are not as weak as expected tonight, risk aversion could cool and gold price has a chance to fall. If below $1,665, it will be looking for $1638 or $1636 support.
Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
Investors are worried about the spread of a coronavirus, affecting the economy and corporate earnings. Meanwhile, Dow futures adjusted again last night as investors fretted about weak U.S. jobs data for February tonight. Dow futures fell early as markets watched the results of U.S. non-farm payrolls data. Dow futures could rebound immediately if non-farm payrolls come close to expectations of 150,000. If the number falls below 100,000, Dow futures could test 25,715 or 25,540 before rebounding. Initial resistance level recommendations, 26515 and 26700.
9245/ 9550 resistance
8550 / 8355 support
Before U.S. none-farm payroll, the Dow future and dollars fell. The demand for cryptocurrencies increased, the bitcoin price rebounded. The trend keeps upward or downward, it would look the U.S. job data.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices
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