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ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Feb 7
Personal opinions today:
U.S. job data, such as ADP and jobless claims last week beat market expectations. U.S. payroll rose to 291,000 in January and jobless claims fell last week, keeping the dollar index and Dow futures on an upward trend in line with expectations for U.S. economic growth. Official U.S. non-farm payrolls for January are also expected to rise above 250,000. If the U.S. non-farm payroll data beat market expectations and hit 300,000 or above. In addition, the U.S. average hourly wages rose more than 0.3% in January, and the U.S. dollar index and Dow futures are expected to maintain gains ahead of next week's U.S. consumer price index for January. Technically noteworthy, when the non-farm payrolls released then the technical adjustment. Moreover, investors watch for volatility in the U.S. dollar index and Dow futures and the possibility of a correction after a high.
Ultimately, of course, investors will pay attention to the non-farm payroll data and average hourly wage performance, and then to the dollar index and Dow futures, which indirectly affect European currencies, gold prices, and crude oil prices. In addition, the federal reserve will release its semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress, and the policy orientation is the focus of the market. If the fed signals an optimistic economic outlook, it does not expect a rate cut. Believe the dollar index rose, but Dow futures could fall.
[Important financial data and events]
Note: * refers to the degree of importance
10:50 China trade account in U.S. dollars ***
15:00 German industrial output in December **
15:00 Germany trade account and current account ***
16:00 China foreign exchange reserves in January **
16:30 U.K. house price index in January *
21:30 U.S. non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate ***
23:00 U.S. December wholesale sales *
24:00 U.S. Fed semiannual monetary policy congress ***
U.S. nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate in January and the fed's semiannual monetary policy report to Congress were the market's focus. The euro dipped to a late-year low of 1.0980 against the dollar on the back of recent strong U.S. jobs data, having fallen as low as 1.0965 yesterday. If the eurozone economy and monetary policy remain below that of the United States, the euro could fall further to its low of 1.0930 or 1.0880 against the dollar in the second half of last year. Recommendations for tonight's U.S. January non-farm payrolls and unemployment results, as well as the federal reserve's monetary policy report. Believe that the euro against the dollar in this period of volatility. Technically, resistance at $1.1025 remains unbroken and the trend could continue to fall.
Pound to dollar
Investors have turned cautious on the pound, which has been in negative territory since the UK left the EU and is still negotiating a trade deal. Coupled with strong U.S. economic and job data in January, the dollar rose and the pound continued its downward trend. Technically, it is recommended to keep an eye on U.S. data to gauge the direction of the pound against the dollar. Technically, the pound is in support of $1.2905 or $1.2885, with resistance at $1.3000 and $1.3025.
As investors focused on strong U.S. economic and employment data, the U.S. dollar index rose, limiting the rise in the Australian dollar, probably adjustment. But the AUDUSD rose after RBA forecast the Australian economy could see faster growth in the first quarter, possibly pending U.S. non-farm payrolls data tonight. Recommended to keep the Australian dollar after the adjustment, buy the Australian dollar at low. Technically, look down for 0.6685 support and 0.6755 resistance.
Dollar to yen
Risk aversion cooled after better-than-expected U.S. economic and job data in January. In the United States Dow futures rose, the dollar against the yen tested 110 resistance. Tonight's U.S. non-farm payroll data is expected to show a rise to 250,000. Dow futures are still up and the dollar could test 110.20 resistance against the yen if it meets those expectations. Advice to keep an eye on U.S. data and Dow futures tonight. Normally, Dow futures move in the same direction as the dollar versus the yen.
The Canadian dollar rose as U.S. economic and job data beat expectations, dispelling fears of a sharp rise in crude inventories and slowing future demand. If crude oil continues to break through resistance at $52.38 and continues to rise, expect to see a bullish Canadian dollar. In addition, the market to watch tonight's U.S. jobs data, when it will indirectly affect the Canadian dollar volatility. Technically, USDCAD breaks through 1.3260 support, looking for 1.3180 support.
US crude oil futures
In recent days, the United States released strong job and economic data, the indirect bullish crude oil prices. Oil market fundamentals are supportive and could continue to stabilize prices, this analysis said recently. Oil is now technically above $50, above the hourly moving average, and could test 52.35 or 52.60 resistance ahead of U.S non-farm payroll data tonight. But Crude oil prices rose after the release of non-farm payrolls data.
Dow Jones futures rose on better-than-expected U.S. economic data, while gold fell as risk aversion cooled. Yesterday, gold prices adjusted for losses, waiting for the U.S.non-farm payroll data. If U.S. non-farm data disappoint markets, that could spur gold prices higher. It is recommended to keep an eye on the performance of U.S. non-farm payroll data, as well as the volatility of Dow futures, for sentiment and gold prices.
U.S. dow Jones industrial average futures US30
Dow futures rose after strong U.S. data in recent days, with U.S. payrolls rising much more than expected in January. The market is digesting the data and looking ahead to tonight's official U.S. non-farm payrolls data for January. With investors already pricing in positive data, Dow futures could see gains narrow and adjust slightly. It is more likely to fall after the non-farm payroll data. If average U.S. average hourly wages rise less than expected to rise 0.3% in January, the correction in Dow futures could deepen.
9800 / 9975 resistance
9050 / 8800 support
U.S. ADP job data rose much more than expected last night then Dow futures rebounded, back to record high 29400 levels. Keep watching the Dow future and global stock market indexes. If Dow reverse and fall, the bitcoin price could up. Otherwise, the bitcoin price hits $9800 resistance, investors would take profit or hedging for protest profit.
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