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ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Feb 5
Personal opinions today:
U.S. factory orders beat market expectations, US dollar and Dow futures rose, sending safe-haven assets out of the market. Gold, the silver price fell and the dollar/yen up. Expectations for gains in the dollar index and Dow futures could be limited before ADP jobs data release tonight, If the job data decline is greater than 150,000, the US dollar downtrend is expected to extend to U.S. non-farm payrolls data announced.
Markets looked ahead to European trading hours today. First, the final reading of German and Eurozone PMI for January and Eurozone retail sales for December. Meanwhile, Britain released its PMI for the services sector for January. Market forecasts for Eurozone and UK data were flat, but it is worth noting that Eurozone retail sales are expected to fall in December, bearish for the Euro, and bearish for the pound and the Swiss franc.
In U.S. trading, the U.S. released ADP job data. The report followed the release of the Markit and ISM PMI for January. If all data over expectation growth, the dollar index and Dow futures could stronger, bearish gold, silver and yen, and bullish crude oil prices.
[Important financial data and events]
Note: * refers to the degree of importance
09:30 China Caixin PMI for January **
14:45 Swiss consumer confidence index for Q1 **
16:55 Germany PMI services sector for January ***
17:00 Eurozone PMI for January **
17:30 UK services sector PMI for January **
18:00 Eurozone retail sales for December ***
20:15 ECB President speech ***
21:15 U.S. ADP job data for January ***
21:30 U.S. December trade account **
22:45 U.S. Markit services sector PMI for January ***
23:00 U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI for January ***
23:30 EIA crude oil inventories change**
The United States Senate voted to impeach the President
German and Eurozone manufacturing PMI for January met market expectations for a slight increase, while Eurozone PPI was flat in December. Then, U.S. factory orders growth outperforming the Eurozone, EURUSD fell. Market expectations Eurozone economic data expect fell and bearish the Euro. In the evening, ECB President’s speech, investors are waiting for her comments. The euro is currently expected to trade at $1.1020, as key support.
Pound to dollar
The economic and trade relations between the UK and the EU after Brexit still uncertainty, investors concern any risk of the deal, bearish pound. Separately, the dollar rose on strong U.S. economic data, sending the pound lower. Tonight the market in the US ADP job data for January and the final PMI for the service sector. The dollar's gains are now likely to be limited ahead of the data, with pound likely to test 1.3050 or 1.3060 resistance. Then please pay attention in US data tonight, judge the direction of the US dollar against the pound.
The Australian dollar rebounded against the U.S. dollar yesterday after the RBA left rates unchanged The next step is to watch the performance of U.S. economic data tonight, estimated to limit the rise of the Australian dollar. Technically, AUDUSD trends from the low move up, looking for 0.6760 resistance. If the resistance is broken, the upper resistance is 0.6800.
Dollar to yen
U.S. economic data beat expectations and risk aversion cooled, Dow futures rebounded and the dollar tested 109.55 resistance against the yen. U.S. ADP jobs data tonight could raise concerns as investors wait to see the outcome, with Dow futures limiting gains and the dollar/ yen limiting 109.55 resistance. Technically, keep an eye on U.S. data and Dow futures tonight. If Dow futures fall, the dollar/ yen will follow the trends.
Crude oil inventories rose sharply last week, crude oil prices continue to fall, bearish Canadian dollar. Focus on OPEC discussions and comments today and impact on Canadian dollar volatility. If crude oil prices rebound, expect bullish Canadian dollars. In addition, investors watch the U.S. job data and economic data, indirectly affect the trend of the Canadian dollar.
US crude oil futures
The market is watching OPEC members meet to discuss a cut in crude oil production. If the OPEC will offer to cut production, the prices could rebound. In the short term, watch the U.S. jobs and economic data indirectly affect oil price volatility tonight. Technically, though, crude fell below the $50.05 target support. The market is expected to $49.45, supported by fundamental news, before regaining ground. Current hourly moving averages in USOIL chart limit gains, keeping an eye on 51.00 or 51.30 resistance.
U.S. economic data beat expectations, Dow futures rose and gold fell as risk aversion cooled. Gold has an opportunity to continue to test its highs if U.S. jobs data tonight is as weak as expected and Dow futures fall. Technically, keep an eye on Dow futures, which move in the opposite direction of gold.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
U.S. factory orders for December over market expectations for a 1.8% gain, a strong reading, and Dow futures rebounded. The market will be watching U.S. ADP jobs data tonight. If job data under investors’ expectation, Dow futures could test 28,645 or 28,555 support. If the data falls sharply, Dow futures could adjust further. References next support, 28325.
9575 / 9800 resistance
9050 / 8800 support
Keep watching the Dow future and global stock market indexes. If Dow keeping downtrend, the bitcoin price could up.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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