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ATFX Market Update - 2020.01.21


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ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Jan 21

Personal opinions today:

Yesterday, U.S. markets were closed for the holiday and there was little volatility, with gold and the dollar holding up slight gains.

There's a lot of data to watch out for in the investment markets today and the President's comments to watch out for and the market is going to be a little bit choppy. Moreover, the trend against related currencies could reverse.

First, the bank of Japan sets interest rates and the market watches the BoJ monetary policy and the governor's speech. In European trading, keep an eye on UK unemployment and jobless claims for December. Also, the ZEW economic sentiment index for Germany and the eurozone in January. A more noteworthy time for global market volatility was when U.S. President Donald Trump spoke at 18:30. Later, the bank of England governor mark carney gave a speech that could have implications for next week's Bank of England rate-setting meeting.

[Important financial data and events] note: * is important

11:00 BOJ monetary decision and outlook ***
14:30 BOJ governor holds a press conference ***
17:30 UK unemployment rate and jobless claims ***
18:00 Germany and Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment **
18:30 U.S.President, Trump speaks ***
23:00 Bank of England President, Carney speaks ***

1.1125/1.1135 resistance
1.1075/1.1065 support
The ZEW economic sentiment index for January for Germany and the Eurozone was released today, with market forecasts for an increase from the previous month, which could see the Euro gain ahead of the data. Later, US President Donald Trump speaks. In response to the comments, pay attention to the dollar, indirectly affect the trend in EURUSD. Next, Bank of England President, Carney speaks before the European market closed today. Comments can be bearish for pound and Euro. Technically, the EURUSD trend limit is 1.1125 or 1.1135 resistance, with a chance to test 1.1075 or 1.1065 support, more likely to test lower level before ECB rate meeting on coming Thursday.

Pound to dollar
1.3045/1.3055 resistance
1.2975/1.2965 support
U.K unemployment rate and jobless claims figures for December were released after the U.K. market opened today. Also, investors must keep watching the Bank of England President, Carney’s speech. Brexit at the end of this month also comes after earlier weak economic data. Believe it will limit the rise of the pound, even try to test the lower support. In the evening, investors should keep an eye out for comments from Bank of England governor.

Australian dollar
0.6905/0.6915 resistance
0.6855/0.6845 support
US President Donald Trump was speaking during trading in European markets today. The market is speculating that Trump's comments, defending the US economic outlook and support him to win the US presidential election in November, will lead to bullish dollar comments. Technically, AUD and NZD continue to adjust, keeping an eye on the 0.6855 or 0.6845 support. It is worth noting that comments without any stimulus measures could be bearish for the US dollar and bullish for the Australian dollar. The New Zealand dollar will follow the Australian dollar trends.

Dollar to yen
110.25/110.35 resistance
109.75/109.65 support
The interest rate set by the Bank of Japan, generally bearish on the yen before the rate-setting, but often reversed after the rate-setting, worth noting. More notably, the Bank of Japan governor held a press conference. There is no evidence that the introduction of new easing measures and an optimistic economic outlook can support the yen, and the USDJPY could test 109.75 or 109.65 support. In the afternoon, US President Donald Trump made a speech, paying attention to his remarks and assessing the trend of the US dollar, which indirectly affected the trend of the USDJPY as well.

1.3075/1.3085 resistance
1.3025/1.3015 support
The Bank of Canada will set interest rates tomorrow night as the market watches the BoC monetary policy and economic outlook. If the U.S. President's comments spark tensions in the Middle East in the evening, the price of crude oil will rise, which could boost oil prices and, indirectly, the bullish Canadian dollar. USDCAD could test 1.3025 and 1.3015 support.

US crude oil futures
59.65/60.00 resistance
58.50/58.35 support
A late afternoon speech by the U.S. President could spark tensions in the Middle East, or reduce oil supplies, potentially sending crude prices higher. Risk aversion, bullish crude oil prices. Technically, refer to $58.50 and $58.35 support, up to $59.65 and $60.00 resistance.

1572/1574 resistance
1558/1556 support
Tensions in the Middle East have cooled, but late this afternoon, the US President made remarks likely to touch on the situation in the Middle East and North Korean. The price of gold rose on fears of stoking tensions as money fled for safety. If the rhetoric is mild enough to calm, then Dow futures rose, gold and silver prices fell. Gold price volatility is recommended. Gold has risen or fallen sharply in response to unexpected events. Technically, it is recommended that high altitude gold is still maintained. See significant resistance at $1585 and $1600.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
29355/29405 resistance
29170/29100 support
In the evening, the US President made remarks that may touch on the situation in the Middle East and North Korean. Dow futures were the first to fall on fears of stoking tensions, with investors locking in profits to unwind their positions in Asian trading and risk aversion rising. Technically, an adjustment of more than 23.6% is possible to further down the adjustment wave of 50%, 29100 as one of support. Afternoon investors must listen to Trump's comments and then evaluate the market values.

9025 / 9175 resistance
8250 / 8000 support In the later afternoon, the US President made remarks that may touch on the situation in the Middle East and North Korean. Dow futures were the first to fall on fears of stoking tensions, with investors locking in profits to unwind their positions in Asian trading and risk aversion rising. Keep watching the Dow future and global stocks market. If Dow fell, the bitcoin price could up. It is the same trend as the gold price.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

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