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ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Jan 10
Personal opinions today:
U.S. December ADP job change beat market expectations to 202K. Tonight, the U.S. labor department will release December Non-farm payroll. The dollar was supported by market expectations that non-farm payrolls will continue to grow. European currencies and commodity currencies fell. Commodity prices, gold, silver, and crude oil were adjusted ahead of U.S. non-farm payroll. On the stock market, investors expected U.S. jobs number growth and market forecasts for U.S. corporate earnings growth in the Q4. Dow futures continued to rise, with Asian stock markets also rising in Asia trading today.
The dollar index, Dow futures, and the world stock index rose ahead of the December non-farm payrolls report. Gold, silver and oil prices adjusted. After the non-farm payrolls data, the above-mentioned investment product price trend may reverse.
[Important financial data and events] note: * is important
14:45 Swiss December unemployment rate **
15:45 French industrial output in November **
21:30 U.S. non-farm payrolls for December ***
22:00 EU foreign ministers hold emergency meeting **
23:00 U.S. November wholesale sales **
The Euro continued to fall as the dollar rose after the U.S. December ADP job data growth over market expectation. Today, the market focus on the United States non-farm payroll and EU foreign ministers held an emergency meeting. It is now estimated that the Euro may continue to test 1.1105 and 1.1095 support. Due to the fluctuation of U.S. non-farm payroll data, it is recommended to reserve the lower support level of 1.1080. If dollar gains adjust, the euro against the dollar try 1.1145 or 1.1155 resistance.
Pound to dollar
The U.K. is expected to leave the European Union in an orderly fashion by the end of the month, giving the pound a chance to rally if the climate for British investment improves. In the short term, markets are focused on the U.S. non-farm payrolls data tonight, indirectly affecting the pound. Market expectations for the U.S. ADP in December were similar to the non-farm payrolls data, the dollar index's rise began to be priced in, and the pound is likely to move higher. Technical analysis, GBPUSD is significant resistance at 1.3282, short-term support look at 1.3045 and 1.3035, resistance 1.3185 and 1.3205.
Australian dollar to dollar
U.S. ADP job number change growth and expect U.S. nonfarm payrolls to reach that level tonight. The Australian dollar is believed to be close to the point of support after a sharp correction following December's U.S. ADP job data. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are expected to rebound early next week as a smooth trade deal between the United States and China is expected to boost expectations for the Australian economy and lower expectations for a rate cut by the RBA.
Dollar to yen
Risk aversion cooled, global stock markets rebounded, driving the dollar higher against the yen. If equity markets continue to rise, the dollar could test 109.80 yen. Technically, the dollar has been limiting the $110 barrier against the yen for the past six months. If the challenge fails again today, watch for a reversal and test the 108 level. The dollar could fall against the yen if equity markets correct. Keep an eye on Dow futures and the Nikkei to capture the direction of dollar-yen trading.
Oil prices fall as geopolitical turmoil subsides. Additional, the U.S. jobs data is expected to increase, the dollar rose, indirectly bearish Canadian dollar. Markets are focused on U.S. non-farm data tonight and believe the market has already priced in U.S. ADP growth, the U.S. dollar's rise could slow and the U.S. dollar/Canadian dollar could pull back from 1.3025 and 1.3015 resistance.
US crude oil futures
Political tensions ease, crude oil prices adjust. Short-term risk aversion is expected to continue, with oil testing $62 or above. The advice must be cautious, pay attention to crude oil price volatility.
The situation in the Middle East has calmed down, US job number growth, and gold prices have adjusted to high levels. For now, with no other risk events, U.S. jobs data could beat market expectations. Dow futures rose, sending money out of gold and silver. For now, it is recommended to keep an eye on the situation, if there is any movement in Dow futures and Nikkei index futures, you can refer to the trend and catch the movement of gold price.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
Dow futures continued to rise on expectations of better business results and investor confidence as the U.S. - Iran relations eased, U.S. job data predicted growth, China and the United States signed a first-phase trade deal next week. If no negative sentiment, Dow futures are expected to continue their upward trend. But the market is likely to take advantage of the U.S. non-farm payroll data to position itself before and after the release of the data, with investors watching for a correction in Dow futures, the extent of the Dow futures correction as a result of the U.S. non-farm payrolls data. Currently, refer to 28735 and 28645 support.
8250 / 8500 resistance
7550 / 7300 support
Dow futures rebounded as tensions eased in the Middle East and U.S. jobs data beat expectations, bearish the bitcoin price. Investors expected U.S. non-farm payroll good, the bitcoin downward.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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