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ATFX Market Update - 2019.6.17


Personal opinions today:
U.S. retail sales and industrial output rose in May, but the Michigan consumer confidence index fell slightly in June. The U.S. data did well, pushing the dollar higher, indirectly affecting the dollar's rise against major currencies and gold price fell from recently high. The dollar index rose, breaking 97.05, once approached 97.55 resistance.
Inflation figures for the Eurozone and the UK are due in the next two days. The market is widely expected to fall, bearish euro and pound, indirect bullish of the dollar. Subsequently, the FOMC meeting this Thursday, announced the interest rate decision and monetary policy statement. Fed chairman Powell held a news conference afterwards. In May, U.S. economic and employment data were weak and inflation moderated. The Fed is widely expected to cut its planned rate soon. The Fed's meeting is likely to announce a rate cut. If no rate cut is announced at this meeting, but the Fed chairman plans to cut rates more than once in the third and fourth quarters of this year, it could affect investor confidence in dollar assets and the dollar in the second half of the year.

[Important financial data and events]
21:00 Canada existing home sales in May
22:00 U.S. NAHB housing market index for June
04:00 the next day, US capital inflows

Today suggestion:
1.1230/1.1245 resistance
1.1185/1.1165 support
Economic data in the Eurozone continues to be weak, with German CPI unchanged in May last week and expectations of weak overall Eurozone inflation. In addition, the European group meeting, the market focused on how the European group to solve Italy's fiscal deficit and future monetary policy stance, attention to downside risks. Technically, the euro has maintained its downward trend against the dollar on an hourly basis, with the euro continuing to trade below its 20-hour average, breaking through its first target of 1.1255 and reaching its low of 1.1205 in early June. Investors are watching the European group meeting for good news and a boost to the euro. But the euro's rebound was limited by expected weak European data over the next two days.

1.2615/1.2635 resistance
1.2560/1.2545 support
Tomorrow, the second round of voting for the candidate of next Britain PM. The candidate, Johnson, who wants a hard Brexit without a deal. The UK is facing the risk of a hard Brexit and pound is weak. Technically, there is an opportunity to try 1.2560. If breaks through the 1.2558 support level, the other target below is 1.2460. If the Euro/GBP adjustment, wait and see key support levels 0.8875 and 0.8840 then testing the 0.90 level.

0.6900/0.6915 resistance
0.6865/0.6850 support
The minutes of the RBA monetary policy meeting tomorrow, the market expectations, they may consider cutting interest rates further to stimulate the economy. The rate cut is expected to see the Australian dollar fall before the Australian economy rebounds. Technically, the focus on AUDUSD to break through the 0.6900 support level, as a reference resistance level. Look down for support of 0.6865 and 0.6850. After the release of the minutes of the monetary policy meeting tomorrow morning, the Australian dollar is expected to stabilize, which may test resistance.

108.80/108.95 resistance
108.45/108.30 support
The Fed fund rate cut is expected to increase, bullish Dow. Dow and Nikkei future was up in Asian trading today, while the dollar rose against the yen. But the trade war between China and the United States continues to be tense, potentially limiting stocks. If the Nikkei index is weak, we expect the dollar to test support levels against the yen. Changes in market information suggest keeping an eye on how the Dow and Nikkei affect the USDJPY trend. If the Dow and Nikkei rise, breaking through the recent resistance or support of related indexes, the USDJPY may break out of the range trend.

1.3380/1.3360 support
1.3430/1.3445 resistance
U.S. crude oil prices after the bearish Canadian dollar. If crude oil prices continue to fall, it will further bearish Canadian dollar. Also tomorrow, the market is expected the Canada manufacturing orders and inventories for April fall. The day after tomorrow, Canada CPI drop for May, bearish the Canadian dollar. Currently reference support levels 1.3380 and 1.3360, resistance 1.3430 and 1.3445.

Us crude futures USOIL
52.95/53.35 resistance
52.15/51.65 support
Last week, API crude oil stock in the United States increased, which is believed to continue to be affected by the trade war between China and the United States. In addition, affected by the seasonal demand reduction, the impact of oil demand, oil futures prices will fall, the rise limit. Although, the Middle East oil supply affected, short - term support crude prices. But lower overall oil demand is limiting price increases. Technically, refer to 52.95 resistance and look down at 51.65.

1346/1348 resistance
1339/1337 support
Fed officials and US President comment that have pushed up gold prices. Before the FOMC meeting this week, the Fed fund rate was considering a rate cut, which was also supported by the U.S. President. We are looking at resistance levels 1346 and 1348, or above $1350 again. Short-term support at $1339 and $1337. Significant support at $1,335.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26250/26320 resistance
25960/25885 support
The market wait-and-see investment mood ahead of the FOMC meeting this week and expected the Fed fund rate cut, with the Dow Jones industrial average expected to see a resistance of 26320. Interest rate this cut comments from the Fed, though, could lift U.S. stocks. But the continuing trade war between the U.S. and China has hurt the economic outlook, giving the Dow a chance to turn negative. Current reference support 25960 and 25885. Key support bit 25620.

9510 / 9759 resistance
8720 / 8520 support
Trade tension, US economic data showed slow down. Expected Fed fund rate will cut, bullish the bitcoin. The bitcoin uptrend recently breaks US9000. Now, keeps watching the China and U.S. trade tension. If a positive outlook, bearish the price of Bitcoin. On the contrary, the Bitcoin will continue the uptrend.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

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