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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Dec 23
Personal opinions today:
US Q3 real GDP growth, increasing investor confidence in the US economy stronger and investment appetite. The U.S. Michigan consumer sentiment rose in December, and money flowed into dollar assets, with Dow futures hitting highs. Besides, the Brexit at the end of January next year, only a month. Under a deal that still leaves MPS short of a consensus, investors raising nervous. And the Bank of England maintaining a negative economic outlook, the BOE may be onward easing. The pound fell and indirectly affects the Euro. Gold and the yen rose on safe-haven demand. After a rally in crude oil prices, the market is watching consumer sentiment. Christmas holiday coming, investors should concern the market adjusts the position, the market trends could reverse.
In Asian trading today, watch Germany Gfk consumer confidence index and Japan data. Later, Germany released its import price index for November. In the evening U.S. trading session, Canada reported October GDP. In U.S. data, which has a strong impact on global markets, looks at U.S. orders for durable goods in November and the total number of new U.S. home sales in November. The U.S. durable goods orders for November and the total number of new U.S. homes sold in November are forecast to have risen from October, with bullish Dow futures and the dollar expected ahead of the data. European currencies, commodity currencies and gold and silver prices were downward. The price of crude oil is expected to rise.
[Important financial data and events] note: * is important
12:30 Japan all industrial activity**
13:00 Japan leading index **
15:00 German import price index **
21:30 Canada GDP in October ***
21:30 U.S. Durable goods orders ***
23:00 U.S. new home sales **
Growth in Europe was weaker than in the United States, where the final reading of Q3 real GDP and the final reading of the Michigan consumer confidence index for December were in line with market expectations. Add to that the prospect of a more significant increase in U.S. durable goods orders in Nov, and it's bearish for the Euro. Technically, the Euro is trending downward, and the fundamentals are bearish. Expect the Euro to moderate its decline against the dollar and continue to plumb. But if the British parliament passes the Brexit bill, the pound will rebound, indirectly boosting the Euro.
Pound to dollar
The UK economy is not growing significantly, and the economy is slowing down. Last week, the governor of the Bank of England said uncertainty over Brexit’s impact on economic performance was bearish for the pound. At present, the fundamentals and technical side of the bearish the pound. If the UK parliament finally passes the Brexit bill, the pound could rebound much further. Technically, the short-term focus is on 1.3035 or 1.3045 resistance. If the pound breaks through 1.3045 resistance, the trend is expected to reverse. But expectations for a more significant increase in U.S. durable goods orders in Nov, which is bearish for the pound, which could try to lower support.
Australia dollar to dollar
Last week, Australia reported its unemployment rate fell to 5.2% in November, beating market expectations and pushing the Australia dollar higher. Plus, global trade tensions have improved. The U.S. trade representative says the first part of a trade deal with China is expected to be signed next month. The China representative's response was also positive, helping the Australia dollar. It's just U.S. data growth tonight, bullish for the U.S. dollar, and the AUDUSD could be downward, at 0.6910 or 0.6920 which would be resistance. Short-term AUDUSD may test 0.6870 support.
Dollar to yen
Dow futures rose, with the dollar following suit against the yen. On Thursday, the Bank of Japan left monetary policy loose. Also, the market to watch the release of Japanese economic data at noon today. If the data is not in line with market expectations, we could see the USDJPY trading between 109.60 and 109.70.
The Canadian dollar fell last week after Canadian inflation came in below market expectations, and Canada reported no increase in retail sales in October. The market looks at Canada's GDP data in October and reevaluates the strength of the Canadian dollar. If the U.S. data is strong, the Canadian dollar. Crude oil prices only hope to rebound, indirect bullish on the Canadian dollar, limited the decline of the Canadian dollar.
US crude oil futures
Global economic optimism has supported the rise in oil prices since the U.S. suspended additional tariffs on some China imports. However, the final reading of U.S. Q3 real GDP only maintained market expectations and oil prices downward with the correction of 38.2% of the rise. If tonight, the U.S. economic data beat market expectations. It expected the crude oil prices are expected to rise above $60.05 or $59.75, with an upper limit of $60.60 or $61.15.
The European central bank keeps its policy loose, and the economic outlook is worrying. The Federal said it faced challenges in keeping interest rates on hold for some time and in the process of Brexit. As a hedge asset, gold hovered between $1,470 and $1,480. Gold is expected to fall if U.S. economic data beat market expectations tonight, suggesting a high correction. If the price of gold is $1,480 or above, watch for price reverse again. First target $1476 or $1474 support, further note $1470.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
Economic data from the United States have increased, trade relations between the United States and China and North America have improved, and investment sentiment has increased. U.S. economic data today is expected to be stronger than the previous month, and the Dow rose by the end of last week. Technically, Dow futures have broken through 28520 resistance, looking for 28600 or 28685 resistance. Must concern that the Christmas holiday, need to be careful trend fluctuation, pay attention to the stock index downward.
7850/ 7975 resistance
7075/ 6955 support
The federal reserve announced the suspension of interest rate cuts, bearish for Bitcoin price. Now, the Brexit leads the market risk on. Also, concern the Dow future fall, bullish cryptocurrency and the bitcoin price could rebound. Technically, the first resistance at $7850, next $7975 resistance. If it fails to break the resistance, it may concern downward.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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