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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Dec 9
Personal opinions today:
The OPEC meeting, all OPEC and non-OPEC members had agreed to extend production cuts until the second half of next year. Non-farm payrolls rose sharply to 260K in November, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%. Crude oil prices have been pushed closer to $60. Meanwhile, a slew of U.S. economic data showed expansion, driving Dow futures and the dollar higher. As risk aversion wanes and inflation expectations rise, the FOMC interest rates decision this Thursday and the market believes rates will remain unchanged, and gold prices fell significantly to near $1,458 on last Friday night.
The dollar rose on last Friday night after US jobs data showed the economy was strong. Today, the market expected the Eurozone economic data weak, European currencies are expected to have room to fall. The Euro and the British pound and the Swiss franc are expected to fall from noon today. Depending on the economic data weakness, continued European currency losses. The FOMC, the Swiss national bank and the European central bank will set interest rates on Thursday, and so will the British parliament election. The dollar was widely expected to rise, while European and commodity currencies fell. The Australian dollar also has a chance to fall ahead of tomorrow morning, RBA chairman speech, which could indirectly influence the New Zealand dollar to follow suit.
[Important financial data and events] note: * is important
07:50 Japan Q3 real GDP ***
07:50 Japan October trade account **
14:45 Swiss November unemployment rate *
15:00 Germany trade account and current account ***
17:30 Eurozone Sentix investor sentiment index ***
At 06:05 am the next day, RBA chairman speech ***
U.S. non-farm payrolls rose sharply in November, the unemployment rate fell, and the dollar rose. The Eurozone economy is expected to grow only modestly as markets watch afternoon European economic data. The Euro could test $1.1030 or $1.1020 after the European market opens. With no U.S. data available tonight, the Euro is expected to check more important support levels against the dollar this week, with targets at 1.0980 and 1.0965, if expectations remain for the FOMC would keep interest rates on hold and the European central bank to keep monetary policy loose in this Thursday.
British Pound to the dollar
UK parliamentary election in this Thursday, it is likely to raise the market risk on the British pound. And last week, U.S. employment rose sharply in November, the dollar was strong, and the pound to the dollar had increased downward risk. Technically, look for short-term resistance of 1.3160 and 1.3170, with significant resistance of 1.3205. If the dollar remains strong, the pound could test important support targets, 1.3075 and 1.3065.
Australian dollar to dollar
The market is looking forward to U.S. trade talks with China this week, finalising the latest development in the first phase of trade talks between the US and China. It could affect the Australian dollar to the U.S. dollar. But the Australian dollar's gains were limited today, and it is because of the RBA chairman speech tomorrow morning. Technically, AUDUSD is expected to test 0.6840 or 0.6850 resistance after the opportunity to test the low. The Australian dollar could check the first support level of 0.6800 against the greenback if RBA chairman makes negative comments on the Australian dollar.
Dollar to Japanese yen
The Japanese yen had risen after Japan reported the Q3 real GDP and a rise in trade accounts in October. But a surge in U.S. jobs data could give Dow futures and Nikkei index futures a chance to rebound, potentially lifting the dollar to the yen. Technically, USDJPY support is estimated at 108.55 or 108.45. If Dow futures and Nikkei index futures rise, the USDJPY could test upper resistance.
The Canadian dollar fell after the meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC. Also, the U.S. President criticised the Canadian prime minister, and markets worried that trade talks between the US and Canada this month, bearish the Canadian dollar. For now, it is recommended to wait and see the USDCAD 1.3280 resistance or 1.3330 resistance. The USDCAD moved toward 1.31 to 1.30 as sentiment improved.
US crude oil futures
OPEC and non-OPEC leaders agreed to extend production cuts, bullish crude prices. But the reductions fell short of market expectations, and the price of crude oil rose to nearly $60. Technically, it is expected that the 59.55 resistance has been completed on the target last week we mentioned. Without further progress in international trade negotiations, the chance of crude oil price breaking through $60 is low. It would set the current price of crude oil rose to $59 resistance and going to correction. Look below $57 or maybe $56 level.
U.S. non-farm payrolls rose sharply in November, Dow futures and the dollar rebounded, and gold was bearish. With U.S. jobs data showing growth and the FOMC may set interest rates and expected to unchanged, there is a chance gold price will continue to weaken. The market priced in that expectation last week, and already reflected in Dow futures, and gold price decline is likely to be limited. Technically, if the $1454 support level does not break, gold prices adjust the decline, is expected to test the 1466 resistance. Overall, gold prices are likely to continue to fall this week as the fed is likely to keep interest rates on hold.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
U.S. non-farm payroll rose sharply, unexpectedly in November. However, investors worries remain over the status of US and China trade talks, limiting the Dow futures rebound and making correction more likely. No U.S. data will be released over the next two days, amid concerns that the US President any comments could lead to volatility in Dow futures. Technically, 27620 is a significant support level during the Dow futures correction. Important resistance notes the November high 28210 resistance.
7750/ 7885 resistance
7150/ 7050 support
The cryptocurrency demand decline, bearish Bitcoin price. Technical, the bitcoin price still under US7885, keeps to looking at the trends go down. Only Dow future fell, it could bullish cryptocurrency and the bitcoin price could rebound. If it continues downward, the bitcoin price could test US7150 or US7050 support.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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