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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Dec 5
Personal opinions today:
U.S. ADP employment change unexpectedly fell, from 128,000 in October down to 67,000 in November. Reflecting job losses in the U.S. private sector and the labor market, and the bearish sentiment in investment markets, the U.S. dollar index fell, and gold prices rose. Dow futures rebounded as the U.S. President signalled progress in trade talks with China and the investment climate improved, drawing capital into the dollar. As risk sentiment cooled and Dow futures rebounded, gold adjusted from a high of $1,483. Besides, OPEC and non-OPEC group meetings will be held soon. OPEC and non-OPEC delegates said they agreed to extend production cuts until the end of 2020. The expected increase in information bullish crude prices. Crude oil prices recovered from their lows to test last month's high of $58.60.
European markets are focused today on the Eurozone October retail sales and revised Q3 GDP. During the U.S. market session, the United States reported weekly jobless claims, October trade account and October factory orders. It will also focus on tomorrow U.S. non-farm payrolls data for November and a slew of data on the labor market. The 177th OPEC Congress is holding its opening ceremony tonight, followed by a press conference. Press conference comments and stance will again affect the price of crude oil volatility.
[Important financial data and events] note: * is important
18:00 Eurozone retail sales for October ***
18:00 Eurozone Q3 GDP revised ***
21:30 U.S. jobless claims for last week ***
21:30 U.S. trade account for October **
22:00 The 177th OPEC congress opens *
23:00 U.S. factory orders for October **
23:00 Fed governor Charles testifies **
Press conference for 177th Opec meeting to be held ***
U.S. ADP employment change fell in November to just 67,000. The number of ADP has fallen sharply, far below market expectations. The dollar fell, and the Euro rose against the dollar, having seen a high of 1.1115 support. It is still possible that the dollar will continue to fall on the back of a sharp drop in U.S. ADP payroll. But what matters is the outcome of Eurozone economic data today, which could extend to the downside against the dollar if Eurozone retail sales and GDP weaken. Important support bit targets, 1.1065 and 1.1055 support.
British Pound to the dollar
Yesterday this article mentioned that the US President's dispute with the leaders of many countries at the NATO summit caused the dollar to fall and the pound to gain indirectly. The pound rose further after ADP payrolls data sharply below market expectations. In the short term to tomorrow evening, the dollar could continue to fall, and pound could test resistance. It is because the result of U.S. ADP payroll declined in November, which could weigh on expectations for weak non-farm payrolls release tomorrow. Note that the 1.3075 and 1.3065 support breaks, respectively, indicating that the trend could fall further, testing below 1.30 to 1.2980 to 1.2930 support.
Australian dollar to dollar
The federal reserve said it had no plans to cut rates further, improving the bearish Australian dollar. The AUD once broke through 0.6860 resistance. Hopes for progress in US and China trade talks could provide a boost to the Australian dollar. But the AUD gains have been limited by the lack of news so far. Technically, AUD is expected to test 0.6860 or 0.6870 resistance. In the short term, consider waiting for the first 0.6800 support.
Dollar to Japanese yen
The USDJPY rose as Dow and Nikkei futures rebounded. Technically, it is estimated to raise support to 108.60 and 108.50. If Dow futures continue to fall and the dollar index adjusts, watch for target support at 108.45 or 108.35. Dow p futures are expected to rebound if there is good news from the trade talks or OPEC members reach an agreement to cut output and extend the duration of production cuts, with the dollar testing 109.00 resistance, or 109.15 and 109.25 resistance.
The Bank of Canada remains interest rates unchanged. OPEC intention to extend production cuts until the end of 2020 has boosted crude prices. Technically, the USDCAD from 1.3320 resistance. As mentioned in this article recently, a rebound in crude oil prices above $57 could be bullish the Canadian dollar. Yesterday with these factors, the USDCAD breakthrough the support. Technically estimates USDCAD could testing 1.3165 and 1.3155 in support. If crude oil prices fall, watch for 1.3235 or 1.3245 resistance.
US crude oil futures
Yesterday mentioned the upcoming meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC to discuss production cuts. The market wait-and-see the sentiment. Crude oil prices were rebounded by news of an extended production cut. Technically, it is expected to support the rise in crude oil prices. If crude breaks $58.70, it will look for 59.05 or 59.55 resistance, respectively. But when it reached the resistance area, if there is no good news in trade talks, watch out for price correction.
U.S. ADP employment change in November sharply below market expectations, bullish gold prices. But last night the US President speech on trade talks with China caused Dow futures and global stock markets to rebound and gold prices to fall. Now that U.S. jobs data is below market expectations, there's an opportunity to be bearish on Dow futures, and gold could rise again after adjusting for gains. First testing $1,468 or $1,466 support. If investment sentiment falls and Dow futures fall, gold could try $1,480 or above again, such as $1,484 and $1,486.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
A surprise drop in U.S. ADP payrolls in November, combined with concerns over international trade talks, could keep markets concerned that December trade talks between the United States and China and Europe will not continue, giving Dow futures an opportunity for a deep correction. Technically, Dow futures dipped to 27250 or 27165 support. At present, please note the support at 27420 and 27365. Resistance levels refer to 27730 and 27885.
7750/ 7885 resistance
7050/ 6850 support
The cryptocurrency demand decline, bearish Bitcoin price. Technical, the bitcoin price under US7885, keeps to looking at the trends go down. If Dow future continues to fall, it could bullish cryptocurrency and the bitcoin price could rebounds and probably over US7885. Otherwise, the Dow future rebounded, the bitcoin price could test lower. Such US7050 or US6850 support
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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