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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Dec 3
Personal opinions today:
Germany and the Eurozone manufacturing PMI rose in November from the previous month, supporting the Euro yesterday. Separately, the UK manufacturing PMI also rose in November, supporting the pound. While the U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI rose in November, but the ISM manufacturing PMI fell deeply in November and disappointed the market. Coupled with the lack of progress in U.S. and international trade talks, the federal reserve has continued to cut interest rates, and the dollar index has fallen amid concerns that US and China trade talks failed to reach a consensus in December, raising the prospect of a recession next year. Dow futures fell on worries about corporate profitability.
Today, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its decision on interest rates is whether to consider cutting rates. In European trading, the Swiss consumer price index for November and the Eurozone PPI for October, it must be a concern. France government budget should not be taken lightly on the Euro and other European currencies, and indirectly affected on gold and crude oil prices.
[Important financial data and events] note: * is important
11:30 RBA interest rate decision ***
15:30 Swiss Consumer Price Index **
15:45 France Government budget ***
17:30 UK Construction PMI *
18:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index **
21:45 U.S. Redbook Retail Sales ***
The next day 05:30 U.S. API crude oil stocks change ***
European economic data yesterday, the performance of growth, support the Euro. The Euro is stronger today as markets expect a slight increase in the Eurozone PPI in October. If the economic data turns out to be similar to or lower than market expectations, and the Euro fails to test the 1.1090 resistance against the dollar in late European trading, it is likely to move lower. If the data is weak, the Euro will fall in anticipation of U.S. economic data later in the day. Technically, the Euro could test 1.1015 support against the dollar.
British pound to dollar
A British opinion poll has predicted that the ruling conservative party will be close to the second leading party in terms of the number of seats won, failing to become the governing leader of the big party, which will undermine the smooth and orderly Brexit. The news is bearish for the pound. If UK economic data fail to gain momentum in time, the Bank of England is feared to be ease monetary policy. Resistance to GBP 1.2950 is likely to be blocked, more likely to affect the GBP decline, target on 1.2865 support.
Australian dollar to dollar
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has set interest rates today, which could be bearish for the Australian dollar if the RBA would trying to ease monetary policy or cut rates further in the future. Although the rate of the interest rate cut is not high, before the RBA meeting vote, the Australian dollar to maintain under 0.6845 resistance. The absence of any good news from the US and China trade talks also capped the rise of the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar. Technically, AUDUSD is expected to test 0.6845 resistance. Subsequently, the Australian dollar is estimated to rise the momentum of decline, is likely to fall. Preliminary target, 0.6780 or 0.6770 support.
Dollar to Japanese yen
US manufacturing PMI unexpectedly slowed, Dow futures and the Nikkei index fell, and the dollar again tested 108.90 against the Japanese yen after breaking through 109.60 resistance. The market is focused today on last week's U.S. retail sales. If growth will be bullish Dow futures and Nikkei index futures, while bullish Japanese yen. Technically, the opportunity is estimated to test 109.45 as the first key resistance. But if Dow futures fall after the date and the dollar index adjusts, watch for target support at 108.85 or 108.75.
The Bank of Canada will set interest rates tomorrow as markets focus on the central bank's monetary policy and economic outlook. Market watch, crude oil price trend weak, bearish Canadian dollar. Technically, USDCAD is testing the 1.3320 resistance. If rebound in crude oil prices above $57 could be bullish the Canadian dollar. The Canadian dollar could test support at 1.3265 or below as the Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged and its economic outlook upbeat.
US crude oil futures
Crude oil prices are adjusting as OPEC, and other producers countries meet over the weekend to discuss a deal to cut production. Besides, the market focus on tomorrow morning, US API crude oil inventories for last week. The market is expected to decline inventories, the technical support for crude oil prices to rise. If crude oil prices break out watch 57.05, initially look for 57.75 or 58.15 resistance.
U.K. ruling conservative party may fail to win a majority of seats in the House of Commons next month amid fears that the country could be blocked from a smooth Brexit next year, according to a new poll. The United States and China trade talks have failed to make progress, worried about the economic impact of tariffs, and gold. Last night, U.S. manufacturing data under market expectations and fell from the previous month, while Dow futures fell bullish gold. The market is watching Wednesday night, the U.S. ADP employment change, preliminary estimates of a rise in the number of bearish gold prices. If Dow futures rally 1466 and 1468 resistance break failed. Gold is expected to fall as Dow futures rise.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
U.S. manufacturing unexpectedly fell, and Dow futures took the opportunity to adjust amid concerns that U.S. and China trade talks won't take place in December. Technically, after a further dip to 27795 support, Dow futures could fall to 27680 or 27555 support. Dow futures could gain if the market anticipates a rise in U.S. ADP employment data tomorrow.
7750/ 7885 resistance
7050/ 6850 support
The cryptocurrency demand decline, bearish Bitcoin price. Technical, the bitcoin price under US7885, keeps to looking at the trends go down. If Dow future keeps fall, it could bullish cryptocurrency. The bitcoin price could rebound and probably over US7885.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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