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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Nov 12
Personal opinions today:
The US President continue to impose additional tariffs before trade negotiations can be successful. Yesterday the US President eased restrictions on imports of Japanese cars, extending a six-month exemption from tariffs. The market think that this is a good step to release tariffs and go forward, boost investment sentiment. Risk aversion cooled again after comments from the U.S. President and U.S. trade officials. The Japanese yen, gold and silver stalled and fell. Crude oil prices have strengthened.
In European trading today, the focus was on UK jobless claims in October and German ZEW economic sentiment index in November. In the U.S. trading hours, the federal reserve vice chairman speech.
[Important financial data and events]
Note: * is the degree of importance
17:30 UK unemployment rate **
17:30 UK jobless claims ***
18:00 German ZEW economic sentiment index ***
18:30 Federal reserve vice chairman speech **
19:00 U.S. small business confidence index *
1.1035/1. 1045 resistance
European central bank monetary policy to maintain long-term low interest rate policy, continue to limit investor confidence in the Euro, the EUR trend remained downward. Germany and the Eurozone released November ZEW economic sentiment index today, and the market is looking at whether the index will rise after the October rate cut. Without growth, the EURUSD will fall, possibly to test support at 1.09.
British pound to dollar
Following comments from Bank of England governor Carney speech on the outlook for the British economy, it was bearish for pound. Financial institutions, Moody also provided a review of the British sovereign downgrade, affect the pound. UK Q3 GDP report was followed by today's UK jobs data and UK October CPI and retail price data tomorrow. The market is focused on weak UK data and the pound is likely to continue its slide.
Australian dollar to US dollar
Trade tariff has bearish Australia export growth prospects. Worries about the RBA rate hike next week, expected dovish comments from the RBA and a negative outlook, bearish the AUD dollar. If the international trade does not improve, the AUD dollar has the opportunity to explore 0.6820 support. NZD/USD has the opportunity to explore 0.6290 support.
The US President has taken a tough line on international trade deals, and hold tariff. The comments have affected investment sentiment. Yesterday, the Dow futures and the main global stock market declines in Asia that hedge warming, once against the yen, the dollar fell. Short - term market digest the news, moderate the decline. Technically, if Dow and Nikkei futures continue to fall, the dollar could test 108 again against the yen.
U.S. dollar to Canadian dollar
The Bank of Canada said it was dovish and the market was waiting to see if it would cut interest rates. The US President's tough stance on international trade deals has hurt investment sentiment and indirectly hurt the Canadian dollar. Expect good news for oil demand around the time of this week's international oil and energy report. If crude oil prices rise, can indirectly bullish Canadian dollar.
United States crude oil futures
The US President's tough stance on trade tariff has bearish investment sentiment and indirectly bearish crude oil prices. Please pay attention to the risk of oil price correction. If limited the gain at $57. The target support could be $56.05 or $55.75.
Dow futures closed at a record high on expectations of reduce or cut on trade tariff, which bearish gold price. Technically, if gold price below the resistance at $1,468, it's still on the downside. If Dow futures fall, gold price could rebound.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
The US and China is going to sign the first phase of a trade agreement next month, and the trade tariff to improve to boost investment sentiment. But if trade tensions persist, the declines could begin in Europe. Technically, Dow futures will test 27420 or 27315 support.
9180/ 9280 resistance
8850/ 8750 support
Technically, the crypto currency demand decreasing, the trend bearish. If Bitcoin price break US8750 support, then look at US7885 support. If Dow future and global stock market fall, the bitcoin price could have a chance to rebound.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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