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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Nov 7
Personal opinions today:
After a week of Dow future gains, the market did not have further positive news to pull up then fell, as expected yesterday. Gold price rebounded, leading silver price rally from its low. Separately, in European trading yesterday, the Eurozone reported retail sales for September, only in line with forecasts but down from the previous month. In the United States trading sessions, the federal reserve Evans and Williams speech, respectively, said the Fed has no intention to consider further rate cuts. Led by above two news, the dollar rebound. Crude oil futures fell after other OPEC members said they had no intention of following the cut.
The Bank of England announced interest rates decision today. Then, 20:30 Bank of England press conference. The market is watching whether the monetary policy will adjust in the face of the impact of the delayed Brexit. If strengthen loose monetary policy, bearish British pound. On the contrary, if there is no change, it is likely that pound will rebound and the Euro will follow. Then, focus on the US initial jobless claims. The Euro, Swiss franc and pound could be affected by a meeting of 19 eurozone finance ministers to discuss monetary policy and Brexit.
[Important financial data and events]
Note: * is the degree of importance
15:00 German industrial output **
16:30 UK Halifax house price index *
20:00 Bank of England interest rate decision ***
20:30 Bank of England press conference ***
21:30 U.S. jobless claims ***
22:00 Eurozone finance ministers meeting **
1.1085/1. 1095 resistance
Markets are forecasting a fall in German industrial output in September, fewer U.S. jobless claims last week and a rise in the dollar. Euro testing 1.1060 support. If further breakthrough after, could test 1.1045 and 1.1035 support. Expect no any good news from the Eurozone data or Brexit, the Euro still has a downside risk. EU Finance ministers meeting tonight, if there are downside opportunities as they discuss monetary policy and Brexit.
British pound to dollar
British Parliament is closed until after the December elections. But there are still challenges as to who will lead the next faction to lead the British parliament and resolve the Brexit deal. It is believed that the Bank of England interest rate decision and monetary policy report tonight, followed by Bank of England press conference, the GBPUSD are hard to test higher resistance. Technically, the GBPUSD correction, wave from 1.2970, has been down to 1.2840. The next target will be either the 1.2810 support or the 1.2780 support.
Australian dollar to US dollar
RBA positive outlook, did not express the interest rate cut again. Unfortunately, it trade deals did not sign in advance, which is bearish for Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar. The AUDUSD trend correction, could test the support level of 0.6860. Technically, if break 0.6935 resistance it could strengthen the AUDUSD. Conversely, breakthrough 0.6860 support, the next level of support target is 0.6825.
Dollar to Japanese yen
Dow futures fell, while the Nikkei and the USDJPY adjusted their losses. In addition, the Bank of Japan announced monetary policy, did not expanding and widely the quantitative easing, the Japanese yen rose. Technically, USDJPY recovered 109.00 resistance, failed to explore 109.35 resistance, please pay attention the correction risk. If Dow and Nikkei futures fall, the USDJPY could break through 108.60 to test 108.45 or 108.30.
U.S. dollar to Canadian dollar
Dovish comments from the Bank of Canada, bearish the Canadian dollar. Crude oil prices were hit by a rise in U.S. API and EIA crude oil inventories, and other OPEC members failed to follow the production cuts. Crude oil prices fell, which indirectly bearish the Canadian dollar, and USDCAD tested 1.3190 resistance. If next week, the international crude oil and energy report will bring good news for crude oil demand, and the USDCAD is likely to test support.
United States crude oil futures
U.S. crude oil futures fell after OPEC members failed to extension of their output cut in December. Yesterday, in this analysis has mentioned the risk of correction, technical attention to adjust to US$56.25 and US$56.05 as short-term support. Now if crude oil prices rebound above the $56.75 or $57.00 resistance, the trend is likely to test the $55.25 or $55.05 support. It could then test October lows, supported by $54 or $53.
Trade deal may delay signing, Dow futures correction. In addition, the Bank of England interest rate decision tonight, gold prices rebounded before announcement. If Dow futures rebounded and keeps upward, gold prices down lower. Technically, the key resistance is $1,500. If gold price does not break $1494 resistance in the short term, it could still test $1485 support. After breaking through support, look down at $1,480 or $1,478.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
The trade agreement still hasn't been signed, the investment sentiment began to cautious, Dow futures from 27560 technical resistance reversed. If this correction, Dow futures did not break 27315 or 27230 support, it could test the Dow futures 27560 or 27640 resistance again. If break 27230 support level, it would believe the trend began to correction continue, could bearish to test 27000 support.
9780/ 9950 resistance
9200 / 9050 support
If Dow future and global stock continues upward. Technically, it could bearish Bitcoin price. If break US8750 support, then look at US7885 support. If it would failure break through the US9780 or US9950 resistance, the bitcoin price could downward.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
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