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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Oct 25
Personal opinions today:
Britain prime minister failed to push for a Brexit on time, which will need to seek a delay applied to the European Commission at the end of the month. In addition, the British prime minister plans to arrange a December election, adding to the fact that the UK congress could not pass the timetable for the Brexit agreement before the deadline of the European Union in late October, or the second Brexit vote, which led to a fall in the pound and the Euro and the rise of the dollar. But last night, the United States published several critical economic data, mostly about productivity and consumer data weakness, limiting the dollar's rise. U.S. data were weak, and Dow futures fell. U.S. interest rate futures were expected to heat up after U.S. data were released. The market forecast that the bank of the United States and the storage bureau had a 25-point chance at the end of October. If Fed interest rates cut, bullish investment sentiment, capital flow to the stock market, commodity markets, with gold and oil prices rising.
Europe opened today, Germany release November GFK consumer confidence index. Then Germany's Ifo business index was equally crucial in October. The recent Eurozone and German figures have not grown. It is estimated that there has been no growth in Germany's data today. On the contrary, data weak, more likely to trigger the euro and sterling continue to fall. Last night, the European central bank held interest, as the market was widely expected to change the monetary policy of the European central bank, but at the ECB's meeting, it suggested a study of expanded policy on easing. In the future, the ECB will still be able to take a reduction in interest rates or increase the size of the scale, allowing the Euro to downward. In addition, the UK cannot complete the program before the European Union deadline. Believe that European currencies will still fall, and if the federal reserve is intended to cut interest rates next week, it will temporarily ease the fall in European currencies. The Dow futures, gold and oil prices, are expected to rise in the short term. The dollar and Dow futures will be down if the Michigan consumer confidence index is below market forecasts today.
Important financial data and events
The * marks is a degree of importance
14:00 German GFK consumer confidence index **
16:00 German business sentiment index **
22:00 US Michigan consumer confidence index final ***
23:00 Canada budget balance *
Today suggestion :
The euro against the dollar
Britain is facing obstacles to the Euro. The Eurozone manufacturing PMI continued to weaken in October, and European data are expected to remain weak today. Also, last night, the European central bank dovish speech was able to bearish for the Euro. On the other hand, if the Fed officials say they are planning to cut interest rates again, it will only be able to limit the Euro downward, but it will not be able to bullish the Euro. Technically, the British pound will continue to lead the Euro.
Pound against the dollar
Brexit will be a possible second referendum. Technical analysis, if the pound fails to break the rebound wave resistance level of 1.2900, the trend continues to fall. The recent proposal to note the support of 1.2840. There is negative news of the ECB easing monetary policy and Brexit failure, both of which are a bearish pound. The target is extended to the next level of 1.2740 support.
Australian dollar against US dollar
Brexit has not been passed by the British parliament to influence the investment sentiment. The US President has led the government, and the vice president has criticised the progress of the second phase of the trade between China and the United States, with a weak dollar and New Zealand dollar. The analysis of the technical analysis of the recent report, the last month's high 0.6890 breakthroughs failed, the trend is ready to adjust. At the moment, the Fed may release interest rates cut, and the dollar will be expected to be bullish the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar.
The dollar against the yen
The ECB and Fed will release interest rate cut, hoping to cut interest rates and believe the dollar will follow the Dow and the Nikkei index futures, USDJPY up to 109. Technically, the dollar continues to develop the stock market. If the Dow futures rose, the USDJPY would test the resistance of the target
US Dollar against the Canadian dollar
Crude Oil prices rise, benefits Canada dollar. Technically, if the price of crude oil fell, the USDCAD would return to 1.31. On the other hand, as crude oil prices rose, the USDCAD keeps at 1.30. The final value of the Michigan consumer confidence index, which is lower than the market price. But the Fed released interest rate cuts, which are bullish for the Canadian dollar. Then, the USDCAD is expected to be at 1.29.
US crude oil futures
Saudi oil exporters plan to cut production with OPEC members, with the U.S. API crude oil inventory fell, the crude oil price up. The crude oil price has again recorded gains. But with the Brexit agreement failing to get the British parliament to vote, the second order of trade consultations between China and US have an unambiguous factor, which beliefs in limiting the price of oil and adjusting it. Keep watching the final value of the Michigan consumer confidence index will fall further than expected.
Support for 1494/1492
The UK cannot divorce with the European Union, the European central bank and the Fed has held interest cut, money flow to the gold market have bullish gold prices. Yesterday, the ECB monetary policy resolution appeared to be easing monetary policy, and gold prices were expected to rise and test $1,500. Today, the Michigan consumer confidence expected to weak. Before the announcement, it was estimated that would be bullish gold. Gold prices are expected to break if data weakness or Dow futures fall.
Dow Jones industrial index futures us30
The UK divorce the European Union has not been approved by the UK congress, and the U.S. economic data haven't been able to break the 27,000 points, as the market expects to grow. The market outlook is likely to cut interest rates and support the rise in Dow futures. Technically, if the Dow futures remain above 26660, it is expected to keep the Dow futures upward.
7885/ 8050 resistance
7255 / 7100 support
As the US economy slowdown, FOMC would consider cut Fed fund rate. It is supposed bullish for cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin and other popular cryptocurrencies. Technically, the bitcoin price failed to support at US7885. It would test US7255 or US7100. If FOMC and ECB would cut interest rate, bitcoin price could rebound.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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