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ATFX Market Update - 2019.07.10


Personal opinions today:
Fed chairman Powell delivers a speech and statement at the hearing. The dollar gained on expectations that the Fed, concerned about rising inflation and improving trade relations with the United States, will not need to cut interest rates at the end of this month. The U.S. dollar rose, while European and commodity currencies (Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollar ) fell. The dollar improved, safe-haven funds flow out the yen and gold, money flowed into stocks, the Dow rose.

UK could be delay a Brexit with the European Union by the end of October, raising expectations of a hard risk for the British pound that also follows the euro weakness. If there is no good news to boost European currencies in the short term, the trend is expected to remain weak.

Today, the market focus on the Fed chairman Powell speech, pay attention to his speech, predict the
monetary policy orientation, looking for when to cut interest rates or increase intention and timetable. In addition, the bank of Canada is expected to raise its target interest rate to 2 percent today. But with the global economy slowing and interest rates loose, it remains to be seen tonight whether the bank of Canada will raise interest rates as expected, and watch for fluctuations in the Canadian dollar.

[Important financial data and events]
09:30 China CPI and PPI in June
14:45 French industrial output in May
16:30 UK trade account in May
16:30 UK industrial and manufacturing output in May
16:30 UK GDP for May
22:00 Bank of Canada interest rate decision
22:00 US The federal reserve chairman Powell at the hearing
22:30 EIA crude oil inventories change
23:15 The bank of Canada press conference
Next day 01:30 Fed bullard attends a hearing session
Next day 02:00 Fed released monetary policy minutes

Today suggestion:
1.1225/1.1245 resistance
1.1185/1.1170 support
U.S. nonfarm payrolls were much stronger than expected in June. US inflation data are expected to be stronger than last month, bullish the dollar. For now, there is no good data or news to boost the euro. The federal reserve has ruled out cutting interest rates early in response to the European central bank's call for more easy money. Believe the euro's rise limit, Euro to be fall. Most notable today, the federal reserve chairman Powell speech. Technically, euro volatility can be noted 1.1185 support and 1.1245 resistance.

1.2425/1.2400 support
1.2485/1.2505 resistance
UK conservative party leader election, Boris Johnson, has surged ahead of his rivals over nearly 76% of the vote. Brexit is likely to be postponed, with the belief that UK economic data may continue to be weak and difficult to recover. If Fed chairman Powell makes a speech confirming there is no need to rush to cut interest rates by the end of this month or this year, the dollar will strengthen and British pound could fall further. Technically, the British pound could low of 1.2425 from half a year ago or probably break through its support.

0.6905/0.6885 support
0.6965/0.6980 resistance
The U.S. non-farm payrolls rose in June, while the federal reserve stayed on the sidelines to see how U.S. inflation. Probably the Fed no need to cut interest rate immediately. In addition, the Australian consumer confidence index fell in July, which was also bearish for the Australian dollar. Federal reserve chairman Powell speech today that also the Australian dollar could fall further if the fed chairman further confirms that there is no need to cut interest rates by the end of this month and the US dollar strengthens. Technically, it is suggested to pay attention to 0.6905 support and 0.6965 resistance. Expect the trend of AUDUSD , the same impact on the NZDUSD.

108.80/108.65 support
109.15/109.35 resistance
The Fed chairman Powell spoke at a Fed hearing today, saying the yen could fall further if the Fed chairman further confirms that there is no need to cut interest rates by the end of this month and the dollar strengthens. Markets are likely to be more focused on the results of the June U.S. inflation data tomorrow. At present, the USDJPY trend extended through 108.80 resistance, suggest more attention to the Fed chairman Powell speech today. Tomorrow the US will release inflation data CPI in June. Watch the impact of the dollar on the yen. Finally need to pay more attention to the global stock market trend development, the USDJPY trend would be followed.

1.3075/1.3055 support
1.3155/1.3175 resistance
The Bank of Canada interest rate decision and monetary policy report tonight, the market forecast the bank of Canada keeps the interest rate not increasing, temporarily bearish the Canadian dollar. The dollar could return to support of 1.3075 or 1.3055 against the Canadian dollar if the bank of Canada raises interest rate. And vice versa. In addition, the federal reserve chairman Powell spoke at a federal reserve hearing this evening. If the Fed chairman further confirms that there is no need to cut interest rates by the end of this month, the U.S. dollar may strengthen and the Canadian dollar may fall. What's more, if the price of crude oil falls, it will probably deepen bearish the Canadian dollar.

US crude oil futures
58.85/59.30 resistance
57.00/56.65 support
U.S. API crude oil inventory reduction over expected, bullish crude oil prices. In addition, the US imposed sanctions on Iran, the US-Iran tensions heated up. Furthermore, the crude oil prices were boosted by news that OPEC plans to cut production. The ministry of trade between China and the United States decided to cancel some additional tariffs through telephone consultations. Now, watching Fed chairman Powell speech would be next important topic, if the Fed chairman confirm that there is no need to cut interest rates at the end of this month, crude oil prices may adjust accordingly to fall. Technically, the current focus on 59.30 important resistance. If crude oil futures prices fall, reference support at $57.00 and $56.65.

1398/1402 resistance
1387/1383 support
U.S. jobs data in June were much better than expected, the dollar rose and gold prices fell. Gold prices could fall further if Fed chairman Powell confirms there is no need to cut interest rates by the end of this month. The market expects U.S. inflation to rise in June. The result will release tomorrow. At present, the technical support for gold price assuming 1390 and 1388, but the Fed chairman Powell speech today, before and after, may be relatively volatile. The key support and resistance, looking at 1383 support and 1402 resistance.

U.S. Dow Jones futures US30
26895/26955 resistance
26755/26675 support
U.S. job data strengthening and expect inflation rose in June, bullish the Dow, Dow rose slightly. More importantly, the US and China trade ministries confirmed the cancellation of some of the additional tariffs during the phone call, which lifted the stock market. Current technical estimates, 26895 and 26955 resistance, 26755 and 26675 support ranging trading. Attention to the trade consultation and Fed chairman Powell speech today, stock market may be volatility during the speech.

13350 / 13950 resistance
12750 / 12450 support
China and U.S. trade talk planned reopening soon. US non-farm payroll over the market expected, the Fed may not cut rate. It is suppose bullish US dollar, bearish bitcoin. Probably, the US-Iran tensions may affected the safe heavens fund hedging, part of fund transfer to crypto currencies. It was suggest the bitcoin sentiment following the gold price. If the gold price keeps go down further, the bitcoin price probably follow and go down. Technically, US14000 which is critical resistance.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

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