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ATFX Market Update - 2019.07.08


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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 July 8

Personal opinions today:

The US non-farm payrolls rose to 224,000 in June, up from 75,000 in May, as the US labour market returned to expansion levels above 200,000. Average hourly wages in the United States rose a modest 0.2 percent in June as two key jobs data reduced the chances of the federal reserve cutting interest rates in this end of month.

The U.S. jobs data improved, with the dollar index rebounding to 97 level. European currencies fell after the head of the European central bank said he was stepping up loose monetary policy in light of weak European economic data. In the short term, eurozone data showing growth could stabilize the euro.

[Important financial data and events]
13:00 Japan economic situation index for June
14:00 German industrial output in May
14:00 German quarterly trade and current accounts for May
14:30 France BOF business confidence index for June
16:00 China foreign exchange reserves, new loans approved and money supply for June
16:30 Eurozone Sentix sentiment index for July
22:00 Canadian national economic confidence index
22:00 U.S. conference board employment trends for June

Today suggestion :

1.1245/1.1265 resistance
1.1205/1.1185 support
US non-farm payrolls rose to 224,000 in June, far more than in May. The European central bank is strengthening its policy stance on easing monetary policy, and expects to maintain its policy stance on the eurozone. In the absence of positive eurozone economic data, it would believe the euro is still limiting gains. Technically, note the 1.1205 and 1.1185 support and 1.1245 and 1.1265 resistance.

1.2500/1.2480 support
1.2545/1.2565 resistance
U.K. conservative party leader election, support hard brexit Johnson who is leading the election. UK economic data continues to be weak and the Bank of England said it is considering cutting interest rates against U.K. economic slowdown. In addition, U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose sharply to in June. U.S. average wages rose in June, the economy still has a chance of inflation and the federal reserve may not need to rush to cut interest rates. The dollar strengthened and the British pound fell. Technically, the British pound fell from a June low of 1.2505 to a lower of 1.2480. After the U.S. non-farm payrolls data, which could stabilize British pound. Expect to see 1.2565 resistance, waiting for the British pound next trend.

0.6975/0.6955 support
0.7000/0.7025 resistance
U.S. non-farm payrolls rose in June, while the U.S. dollar rose, indirectly hurting the Australian dollar. The technical adjustment of the Australian dollar against the us dollar last Monday's low 0.6955 support. The Australian dollar is expected to hold its losses against the U.S. dollar if strong U.S. employment data is factored in and there is no positive U.S. economic data or news to add. The market will wait and see the results of the Australian consumer confidence index tomorrow.

108.15/108.00 support
108.65/108.80 resistance
The U.S. non-farm payrolls for June was strong, lowering expectations of a rate cut by the federal reserve. The Dow Jones index and Asian stocks market rose, while the dollar rose against the yen. Today, Japan government reported a large widening trade deficit in May, with machinery orders and bank loans falling, limiting the Nikkei and USDJPY. Recommend support at 108.15 and 108.00, resistance at 108.65 and 108.80. Last Friday, this analysis pointed out that if the USDJPY breaks through 108.15, then looking at 108.55 resistance. The USDJPY trend is likely to extend resistance to 108.80 at the moment, but keeps watching for global stock market declines and the USDJPY may test 108.15 support.

1.3055/1.3030 support
1.3100/1.3125 resistance
The U.S. non-farm payrolls for June was strong, in contrast to a weak June job datas from Canada. From these datas compared with two countries, bearish for the Canadian dollar. The Canadian dollar recouped some of its losses as crude oil prices rose on the back of strong U.S. jobs data. A fall in crude oil prices would likely be bearish for the Canadian dollar, which is currently targeting resistance of 1.3100 and 1.3125. Instead, look for 1.3055 or 1.3030 support.

Us crude oil futures
58.05/58.30 resistance
57.00/56.65 support
The US non-farm payrolls report was strong, with payrolls rising that levels considered expansionary. U.S. average wages rose in June, raising expectations for oil demand and bullish the crude oil prices. Technically, crude oil futures recently support at 56.20 and are currently focused on 58.30 resistance. If crude oil futures prices fall, reference support would be $57.00 and $56.65.

1403/1405 resistance
1390/1388 support
U.S. non-farm payroll were much better than expected and gold prices fell. The current technical estimate of gold prices 1390 and 1388 support. This month the market will watch for progress on the China and U.S. trade talks, US inflation data and the Fed interest rate decision at the end of the month. Now, the U.S. job report for June and keeping increasing in hourly average wages that will influence the Fed monetary policy decisions in this month, with gold prices looking weaker and key support looking at $1,380.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26895/26955 resistance
26765/26675 support
The U.S. non-farm payroll and hourly average wages in June, the non-farm payroll over market expectations. The market estimates that the Fed monetary policy may remain, may not cut interest rates at the end of this month, the direct impact of the U.S. Dow has fallen. The Dow future was still rising after a strong June jobs report. Current technical estimates, 26895 and 26955 resistance, 26765 and 26675 support such ranging. There were no major US economic data released at the beginning of this week. It would suggest to pay attention to the China and US trade consultation meeting this week.

11850 / 12550 resistance
10850 / 10550 support
China and U.S. trade talk planned reopening this week. US non-farm payroll over the market expected, suppose bullish US dollar, bearish bitcoin. Technically, its suggested the bitcoin sentiment following the gold price. If the gold price keeps go down further, the bitcoin price probably following.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

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