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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 July 5
Personal opinions today:
U.S. non-farm payrolls and jobs report for June release today , the market focus on these data results. Since the US ADP payroll just 100,000, estimate the U.S. non-farm payrolls lower as well. But the market expected the US non-farm payrolls lower, just depends how lower. If the number of the non-farm payrolls below 200,000 means a slowing labor market and a slowing economic activity, which has the potential to deflation. The market prepared to cut interest rates by the end of the month. Suppose, today, the US non-farm payrolls were above 100,000 in June, if close to market expectations of 160,000. The unemployment rate keeps at 3.6%, and more importantly, the average hourly wages could keep rising. It believes it can change the market expectation and Fed rate may not cut, lead the dollar higher.
The release of the U.S. jobs data, depending on the results and market expectations of the difference, may affect the level of federal reserve interest rates and price fluctuations by the U.S. Treasury bonds price, the market prices are volatile. Please note that the market price may not be a fixed quotation and failed to deal with the current market price, please note!
[Important financial data and events]
13:00 Japan leading economic indicators for May
14:00 German manufacturing orders for May
15:30 UK Halifax's house price index in June
16:30 Bank of England meeting
20:30 U.S. non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate and average hourly wage for June
20:30 Canada unemployment rate and payroll change in June
22:00 Canada IVEY purchasing managers index for June
Today suggestion :
The European central bank has said it will step up monetary easing to boost the economy. With the ECB President stepping down in October, a new successor is in place, and is expected to keep the Eurozone policy loose. The US President said he would impose tariffs on imports from the European Union, Germany economic growth slowed and so on. These factors have been limiting the euro rise. The U.S. jobs data if non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate held steady today. The hourly average wages higher. Believe that the euro gains limited, and there are opportunities to fall. Technically, EURUSD noted 1.1315 resistance to 1.1240 support.
U.K. conservative party leader election. One of candidate called Johnson who support hard Brexit without deal. Bad for UK and GBP. The market expected UK economic data continue to be weak and the Bank of England has cut interest rates within this year. These factors have limited GBP rise, and weak trend. The market focus US jobs data today. Believe the British pound could fall further if the US data stronger. Technically, the British pound first support is 1.2560 and could fall further. GBPUSD testing 1.2505, as June low.
U.S. ADP payroll remained weak in June and is expected US non-farm payroll to be weak in June as well. The dollar fell, indirectly bullish the Australian dollar. After the market focus on the U.S. non-farm payrolls performance, the situation will affect the dollar. If the results are close to market expectations, the U.S. dollar could strengthen and the Australian dollar could fall.
The Dow and Nikkei overall upward, giving the USDJPY a chance to rally. Short-term suggestion, USDJPY reference support at 107.65 and 107.45, resistance at 107.95 and 108.15. If USDJPY break 108.15, next resistance would be 108.55.
The market is watching the U.S. nonfarm payrolls and job data report for June today. At the same time the Canada release the Canada non-farm payrolls report for June. Most recent Canadian data have been positive. The market expected the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates by 25 basis points next Wednesday. If Canada non-farm payrolls report show significant increased today, would be bullish Canadian dollars. Technically, 1.3030 and 1.3015 as USDCAD support. If crude oil prices fall that would be bearish for the Canadian dollar. Technical resistance would be 1.3085 and 1.3100.
Us crude oil futures
As the market watches the U.S. non-farm payrolls report for June, a rise in the number of payroll and average wages is expected to boost demand for oil, while bullish crude prices fall. Technically, crude oil futures were supported at 56.20, with resistance of 57.30 and 58.30 likely to be tested. But breaking through 56.20 and 55.85 support, the next possible down $53 to $52.
The easing monetary policy of the European central bank and the expected interest rate cut of the federal reserve supported the extension of gold price above $1,380. The market is watching today's U.S. June jobs report and average wages. If the U.S. data beat expectations, gold price has a chance to fall, and vice versa. The current technical estimate, gold prices 1423 and 1427 as resistance, 1409 and 1405 as support. The U.S. jobs report for June and the results of the average wage level will influence the Fed monetary policy decisions. Note that gold prices would be extend the technical support and resistance levels.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
Today, focus on the U.S. non-farm payroll and the hourly average wages results. These data will affect the federal reserve's monetary policy decisions in this month and market sentiment immediately, directly affecting the U.S. Dow Future volatility. The Dow future fluctuated after the U.S. jobs data report for June. The current technical estimates, Dow future 27005 and 27035 resistance, 26935 and 26895 support at the narrow fluctuations.
11850 / 12550 resistance
10850 / 10550 support
China and U.S. trade talk planned reopening soon, theirs relationship improved, suppose bullish US dollar, bearish bitcoin. However, the US President plans to impose tariffs on EU. ECB and BOE plans decreases interest rate. US ADP jobs data affected the US non-farm payroll expectations. These all of news, changing the market sentiment, bullish the bitcoin. Technically, its suggested the bitcoin sentiment following the gold price. If the gold price go down further, the bitcoin price probably following.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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