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ATFX Market Update - 2019.07.04


Personal opinions today:

United States independence day holiday, US market close and no US data release today. Dow future closed at its highest level in 2018 before US holiday. Investors are looking ahead US non-farm payrolls report and following data for June. U.S. ADP payrolls released yesterday, below market expectations of 140,000 jobs created in June. Generally, the non-farm payrolls report tomorrow, would be below 200,000. If the non-farm payroll shows the labor market and economic activity slowing. It means US deflation coming.
Of course, the market expects the U.S. economy to be affected by the trade war with China, along with U.S. trade balance and factory orders weak numbers. As a result, the Fed meeting at the end of the month, the market generally believe that the possibility of Fed fund rate cuts, the dollar has the opportunity to downward, causing gold prices to rise.

No figures were released in the United States today. The market main focus is only Swiss CPI, German construction PMI and Eurozone retail sales. Markets were already expecting a monthly rise in retail sales in the Eurozone in May, bullish the euro already. But if the market is already expecting the US non-farm payrolls to under expectations, the dollar will fall further. The dollar fell against major currencies, and gold prices are expected to rise.

[Important financial data and events]
U.S. stocks were closed for the US holiday
09:30 Australian retail sales in May
14:30 Swiss monthly CPI for June
15:30 German construction PMI for June
17:00 Eurozone monthly retail sales for May

Today suggestion:
1.1320/1.1340 resistance
1.1280/1.1265 support
Eurozone government bond prices rose sharply on Wednesday, with interest rates falling to record lows. The European central bank showed earlier to strengthen loose monetary policy. And the US President threatened to impose tariffs on imports to limit the rise of the euro. Technically, the euro support levels are expected at 1.1280 and 1.1265. Testing the resistance to 1.1320 and 1.1340 with expectations of a drop in U.S. jobs data and the Fed rate cut at the end of the month.

1.2620/1.2645 resistance
1.2565/1.2540 support
U.K. economic data weak, limited the GBP gains. Technically, the British pound was adjusted to 1.2565, For the release tomorrow of U.S. non-farm payrolls for June. The British pound would be stable. The euro rose against British pound, which is expected to test 0.9000.

0.7065/0.7080 resistance
0.7025/0.7005 support
The Australian dollar was supported by the RBA saying it was not considering further rate cuts in the short term, AUDUSD back to 0.70 level. Yesterday, the US ADP job data under expectations. The US trade account and US factory orders also weak, the US dollar fell, benefit of the Australian dollar. The Australian dollar is testing the resistance at 0.7065 and 0.7080 ahead of the AU retail sales increased. The New Zealand dollar followed the Australian dollar higher. If the market expects the US non-farm payrolls lower expected. The Australian dollar would be hit 0.7080 as a key resistance.

107.45/107.25 support
107.85/108.10 resistance
The U.S. President has threatened the European Union with tariffs on imported goods, China's service sector PMI fell in June, the U.S. labor market is expected to be weak and the federal reserve may cut interest rates by the end of the month. The dollar is currently limited against the yen. It is recommended to wait and see if the US non-farm payrolls data will lift the Dow and Asian equities before lifting the dollar against the yen. Short term recommendation, USDJPY’s reference support at 107.45 and 107.25, resistance at 107.85 and 108.10.

1.3030/1.3015 support
1.3085/1.3100 resistance
Canada manufacturing purchasing index and national economic confidence index showed growth, fundamentals are positive, bullish for the Canadian dollar. The bank of Canada is expected to raise interest rates at its next meeting. Trade talks between China and the United States have made new progress. US ADP labor market data and industrial orders in the United States were weak, while crude oil prices fell, limiting the rise in the Canadian dollar. Technically, note the USDCAD support would be 1.3030 and 1.3015. A fall in crude oil prices would likely be bearish for the Canadian dollar, which resistance would be 1.3085 and 1.3100.

Us crude oil futures
57.70/58.55 resistance
56.20/55.85 support
Us crude oil futures fell to US56 after the US President threatened to impose tariffs on eu imports, but the US API crude oil inventories reduced, stable crude prices. In addition, China and the United States plan to start consultations in the near this week, which has improved the investment sentiment and led to the rise in crude oil demand. Technically, crude oil futures were supported at 56.20 with resistance to targets of 57.70 and 58.55.

1428/1432 resistance
1418/1414 support
The federal reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 0.25%, the European central bank and the UK are both planning to cut interest rates, and gold is favored. Our analysis mentions that before, the European central bank monetary policy orientation and the federal reserve rate cut expectations, estimated to support gold prices in the short term at $1,380. If the U.S. non-farm payroll data expects to weak, gold has a chance to US1440. Current technical estimates, 1428 and 1432resistance, 1418 and 1414 support.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
US holiday, market close.

11850 / 12550 resistance
10850 / 10550 support
China and U.S. trade talk planned reopening soon, theirs relationship improved, suppose bullish US dollar, bearish bitcoin. However, the US President plans to impose tariffs on EU. ECB and BOE plans decreases interest rate. US ADP jobs data affected the US non-farm payroll expectations. These all of news, changing the market sentiment, bullish the bitcoin. Technically, its suggested the bitcoin sentiment following the gold price. If the gold price go down further, the bitcoin price probably following.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

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