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ATFX Market Update - 2019.06.25


Personal opinions today:

Markets are looking forward to a meeting and trade talks between the heads of state of the United States and the leader of China at the G20 summit on Friday. If the trade talks between China and the United States can be resolved ahead of time, which could boost economic growth, the federal reserve could hold off cutting interest rates and bullish the dollar. But US President Trump has renewed his criticism of the Fed's comments, giving a pressure on the Fed. Although the US President cannot interfere in the decisions of the federal reserve, gold prices rose on Trump's remarks. Gold was trading at $1,428 when Asian markets opened today. The dollar fell against other major currencies, the euro rose to $1.14 and commodity currencies also gained.

Focus today, U.S. economic data and federal reserve officials, with a special focus on the total number of new home sales in May and a speech by federal reserve chairman Powell. Further tracking of the U.S. economic outlook and the monetary policy direction of Fed officials should follow the US President and increase interest rate cuts by more than market expectations.

[Important financial data and events]
18:00 UK CBI retail sales differential for June
20:30 Canada wholesale sales monthly rate in April
20:45 Fed Williams gives opening remarks
22:00 US new homes sales in May
22:00 US Richmond Fed manufacturing index for June
22:00 US consumer confidence index for June
The next day 01:00 Federal reserve chairman Powell speaks
The next day 04:30 U.S. API crude stocks

Today suggestion:

1.1405/1.1420 resistance
1.1380/1.1365 support
The Fed's monetary policy statement approach to a rate cut in the second half of the year, with markets expecting a half-percentage cut. Last night, US President Trump said the federal reserve should cut interest rates by half a percentage early in July, it comments that sent the dollar fall and boosted the euro. But in the short term, the euro could adjust lower in the absence of real economic data and fed action. Technically, the euro broke through 1.1345, the EURUSD upward expanded. Currently, it is estimated that 1.1405 and 1.1420 are important short-term resistance, and the lower support level is 1.1380 and 1.1365. Further attention can be paid to the support level of 1.1345.

1.2755/1.2770 resistance
1.2705/1.2690 support
The Fed's monetary policy statement hinted at a rate cut in the second half of the year, with markets expecting a half-percentage cut. Last night, US President Trump said the federal reserve should cut interest rates by half a percentage early in July. It comments that sent the dollar fall and boosted GBP. The federal reserve and the US President cut interest rates to help stimulate the economy, UK oil prices continue to rise, is also positive GBP. But ahead of Thursday's conservative leadership election, Britain faces a big risk of limiting the GBP rise. Technically, short-term important resistance 1.2755 still failed to break through effectively, starting adjustment. Resistance level 1.2755, expect to try 1.2690 or below. If GBP losses widen, the EURGBP could try 0.8960 or 08970. After the attention trend may enter the consolidation, waiting for new information, the development of new trends.

0.6975/0.6990 resistance
0.6940/0.6925 support
The trade consultation is scheduled for a ministerial meeting and looks forward to progress at the G20 summit on Friday. US President renewed his call for the federal reserve to cut interest rates by more than expected, bullish the Australian dollar. But it must be noted that the US President's words cannot influence the Fed's decisions. The key is to make progress in China and US trade negotiations, which can effectively bullish the Australian dollar and even the New Zealand dollar. Technically, the AUDUSD is looking at 0.6975 resistance or 0.6990. Support are focused on 0.6940 and 0.6925. The trend of the AUDUSD, generally indirectly leading the trend of the NZDUSD, is worth paying attention to each other. Normally, the NZDUSD follows the AUDUSD. Take note when investing in the NZD.

107.25/107.10 support
107.70/107.85 resistance
According to the minutes of the Bank of Japan today, which reported a fall in the core CPI for May, there was no clear target to ease monetary policy, failing to weaken the yen. The Nikkei index continued to fall as the US President's comments sparked expectations of a narrowing of the USDJPY spread, pushing the dollar back towards 107.25 or 107.10. Note that the market is expecting the restart the trade talks, which is expected to boost the investment sentiment and boost the stock market. To estimate short-term fluctuations, refer to 107.25 and 107.10 support, important support bit 106.85. Upward resistance of 107.70 and 107.85. If the Dow and Nikkei pick up again, they could try the 108 level.

1.3165/1.3150 support
1.3215/1.3235 resistance
The federal reserve has hinted at a rate cut in the second half of the year, and the US President has urged a rate cut as soon as possible. U.S. crude oil prices rebounded to $57, still in the Canadian dollar. At present, the market is watching the trade consultation meeting and the meeting together soon. If the talks go well, boosting crude prices could also boost the Canadian dollar. Instead, trade talks have stalled, with no good news. Crude oil prices fall, it will likely bearish the Canadian dollar. Technically, USDCAD 1.3235 is an important resistance level. The market on the sidelines, pay attention to the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar in the technical range fluctuations.

US crude oil futures USOIL
58.05/58.35 resistance
56.85/56.15 support
China and the United States have launched trade talks, with leaders of the two countries expected to meet at a summit on Friday. The Fed plans to consider a rate cut in the second half of the year, two factors that could boost oil prices. The market will be watching the release of API crude oil stocks tomorrow. Technically, the 85 percent rally in recent months low and high, with a target price of $58.35. In contrast, there is no good news in the trade talks, and crude oil futures are likely to fall, with an initial target of $56 support, and watch for further declines.

1428/1433 resistance
1418/1413 support
The Fed is considering cutting interest rates, and the President issued the Fed to cut rates by half a percentage point in July. The rate cut was larger than market expected, boosting gold prices. Speculative buying returned to the Asian market today, lifting gold prices. However, it must be noted that if the trade talks resume and progress is made, it could boost the stock market and ease the expectation of interest rate cuts. The rise of gold price may not only be limited, but also be significantly adjusted. Advise keep a close eye during US trading hours.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26815/26945 resistance
26515/26395 support
The Dow future closed in a tight range as investors wait and see if progress could be made at G20 meeting and China and US trade talks. Technically, the Dow future is expected to test resistance at 27000 and look for support at 26515 and 26395. The Dow future could break through 26245 if trade talks fail to make progress, with the trend likely to extend further to 26000.

11300 / 11550 resistance
10850 / 10550 support
The market expected Fed fund rate will cut in the second half year, bullish the bitcoin. However, we must keep watching the China and U.S. trade talk tomorrow and the G20 leader summit this Friday. Now, The US-China trade talks restart, it would be bearish the Bitcoin. Now, we suggest following the gold price’s trend to catch up the market sentiment.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

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