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The federal reserve left interest rates unchanged after its meeting to assess market and economic conditions. But in a news release, some of the words in the minutes of the fed's rate-setting meeting were changed, assuming the central bank may cut rates this year. Market estimates suggest the fed could start cutting rates by an estimated totals 0.5%, next month and September. The dollar fell as interest rate differentials narrowed against other major currencies, raising fears of a contraction in the U.S. economy. Interest rate cut expectations, continue to benefit the stock market, crude oil prices and gold prices.
The German manufacturing PMI for June and the Eurozone manufacturing PMI for June were expected to fall today, which was bearish for the Euro and the Swiss franc. Next, US Markit manufacturing and services PMI readings for June and the total number of existing home sales in the United States for May are expected to rise, which is bullish for the dollar and indirectly bearish for European currencies. If u. s. economic data grows, the dollar will rise. Crude oil prices are expected to rise, while gold prices and commodity currencies are falling.
[Important financial data and events]
15:30 German manufacturing PMI for June
16:00 Eurozone manufacturing PMI for June
20:30 Canada retail sales rate in April
21:45 US Markit manufacturing PMI and service PMI for June
22:00 US total existing home sales for May
Fed monetary policy statement in June hinted at a 0.5% rate cut in the second half of the year, sending the dollar lower and boosting the euro. Technically, the Euro broke through resistance of 1.1275 and 1.1290 to reach 1.1315. Reference support levels 1.1270 and 1.1250 if the Euro adjust. Reference resistance levels 1.1315 and 1.1330. If EURUSD break through the recent high of 1.1345, the rise in EURUSD may further upward.
The dollar fell amid rising expectations of a Fed rate cut in the second half of the year. Interest rate cuts helped stimulate the economy and brent crude oil prices rose as crude oil demand was forecast to rise. The Bank of England released the interest rate decision and meeting minutes, in line with expectations of unchanged monetary policy, did not indicate that monetary policy easing, the pound. But Britain's conservative party leadership election, support about no agreement to take off the biggest opportunity to win, the UK face bigger risks, bearish pounds. The technical estimates are 1.2720 and 1.2740 as short-term resistance. Important resistance 1.2755, pay attention to GBPUSD adjustment from high resistance. The Euro is expected to rise against GBP, with short-term support at 0.8875 and 0.8860, up from 0.8920. If the breakthrough 0.8830 important support, trend may fall further.
The planned reopening of the US and China trade talks is expected to ease market tensions and boost the Australian dollar at next week's G20 summit. Federal reserve monetary policy hints to cut interest rates in the second half of the Australian dollar. Technically, the AUDUSD broke 0.6900 resistance then 0.6945 resistance or test 0.6975 important resistance. Support bits are currently focused on 0.6885 and 0.6870. The trend of the AUDUSD, generally indirectly leading the trend of the NZDUSD, is worth paying attention to each other.
Japan's core consumer price index fell in an annual and monthly rate, keeping it below the central bank's inflation target. The Nikkei stock average fell and the dollar fell as low as 107.22 against the yen. To estimate short-term fluctuations, refer to 107.25 and 107.10 support, important support bit 106.85. Upward resistance of 107.70 and 107.85. The Dow and Nikkei are up, on track to test 108.
Us dollar to Canadian dollar
U.S. crude oil prices rebounded, topping $57 and gaining Canadian dollars. In addition, the Fed’s signs a rate cut in the second half of the year, pushing the Canadian dollar higher. Canadian retail sales for April were expected to fall today. If crude fails to meet its key resistance of $58, two factors could weigh against the Canadian dollar. Technically, USDCAD an important resistance level at 1.3235.
Us crude oil futures USOIL
The US and China trade talks would resume before the G20 summit and the federal reserve planned to consider interest rate cuts later this year, two factors that boosted crude oil prices. The market is watching next Tuesday's China and US trade ministers' consultation. If the trade war is eased, crude oil prices could continue to rise. On the other hand, crude oil prices are likely to fall if any negative news affects the demand for crude oil. Technically, we can refer to 58.15 as an important resistance. If breaks 55.85 and 55.15 support respectively, pay attention to continue to fall.
The market is expected to cut Fed fund rates by 0.5 percent in the second half of the year, boosting gold prices. Earlier in Asia, speculative buying resumed and gold prices rose. But investors were concerned that gold's gains were limited by the planned reopening of the China and US trade talks, which boosted stocks. US1415 or 1425, would limited the gold price and test support levels of $1398 and $1388. Significant support levels of $1380 should the London session open.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
The Dow future closed below 27000. The Fed did not cut interest rates, giving a reason limited stocks boost. Technically, the Dow expected to test the resistance of 27000. Because the market encouraged by the China and US trade talks next week. Positive news, bullish Dow. On the other hand, for anything bearish or negative from the US President, the Dow looks down, support levels 26390 and 26250.
9950 / 10250 resistance
9550 / 9250 support
The market expected Fed fund rate will cut in the second half year, bullish the bitcoin. The bitcoin uptrend, broke US9550. However, we keep watching the China and U.S. trade talk end of this month at G20 leader summit. The US President said reopening of the US-China trade talks, it would bearish the price of Bitcoin. Now, suggest following the gold price’s trend to catch up the market sentiment.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
The above is for reference only; the market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. Trading must included risk management! Wish Happy trading!
Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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