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ATFX Market Update - 2019.06.13


Personal opinions today:
Yesterday the US API and EIA crude oil inventories recorded an increase, the increase in the number of crude oil inventories, bearish crude oil prices. As this analysis showed yesterday, crude oil prices would test $51, now as low as $50.60. The impact of the continued inability of the United States and China to reach a trade agreement and intensify the trade war, as demand for crude falls. Moreover, seasonal factors are also important, and generally in the second and third quarters of production capacity and demand for crude oil reduced, affecting the oil price rise room. The above factors affect, the market sentiment weakened, the U.S. Dow future followed investment sentiment down, some funds into safe-haven assets. Gold rose above $1,330 in anticipation of a Fed rate cut.
The US consumer price index slowed to a seasonally adjusted 0.1 per cent monthly rate in May, just in line with market expectations, but in line with expectations it could reverse the dollar's decline, the analysts said yesterday. Finally, the dollar index bounced back from 96.6 to nearly 97.0. U.S. import prices for may and initial jobless claims were among the market's top concerns. If the results are weak and below market expectations, the dollar index could fall from 97. In addition, it is worth looking at the performance of the U.S. stock market and German CPI and Eurozone industrial output data today.
The Swiss national bank announced the interest rate decision today, the market estimated that interest rates and monetary policy unchanged. However, it is worth noting whether the SNB will indicate its future monetary policy stance, which will affect not only the Swiss franc, but also the euro and pound indirectly.

[Important financial data and events]
14:00 Germany CPI monthly final value for May
15:30 Swiss national bank announces interest rate decision
17:00 Eurozone industrial output for April
20:30 US initial jobless claims in the week ended June 8
20:30 US import price index in May
ECB Euro group meeting
Britain first round of prime minister-designate elections

Today suggestion:
1.1305/1.1330 resistance
1.1275/1.1255 support
Yesterday, the dollar rose and the euro adjusted to 1.1280, which is now in the 1.1290 support range. Today markets expect Eurozone economic data weak, with German CPI unchanged in May. The overall trend of the EURUSD, to wait and see the results. If the results are in line with expectations, it could be bullish for the euro. In addition, the European group meeting, the market focused on how the European group to solve Italy's fiscal deficit and future monetary policy stance, attention to downside risks. Technically, the EURUSD did not break resistance at 1.1345 and 1.1360, the EURUSD would keep downtrend. First support would the references 1.1275 and 1.1255.

1.2745/1.2760 resistance
1.2685/1.2670 support
Around 17 nominees will be chosen for the first round of the UK prime minister election today. Earlier, it was noted that one of the nominees, Johnson, is now the front-runner. His call for a hard brexit without a deal is likely to hurt investor sentiment and bearish on pound. GBPUSD fell from 1.2733 yesterday as the bearish. Technically, pay attention to the first support position 1.2685 and the important support position 1.2650. If the euro remains strong and the pound falls, expect the euro to keep rising against the pound, testing the 0.90 level. Test the key support levels of 0.8875 and 0.8840, if the euro adjusts against pound in the short term.

0.6940/0.6960 resistance
0.6905/0.6885 support
The Australian dollar fell against the U.S. dollar today after Australia seasonally adjusted unemployment rate at 5.2 percent in May, higher than market expectations, after the RBA cut interest rates. Technically, focus on AUDUSD 0.6905 and 0.6885 support. Resistance 0.6940 and 0.6960.

108.50/108.65 resistance
108.00/107.80 support
The dow Jones industrial average fell after the U.S. said it expected a drop in the monthly CPI after the may quarter survey and the trade war between China and the United States continued to dispute. Depending on the depth of the losses in the Dow and Nikkei, the USDJPY could test support at 108.00 or 107.80, respectively. Earlier this analysis pointed out that USDJPY may barrier before 109 resistance, watching it reversing the trend. Keep an eye on the Dow and Nikkei affect the USDJPY trend.

1.3315/1.3295 support
1.3360/1.3400 resistance
Crude oil prices fell as U.S. API and EIA inventories rose. The Canadian dollar extended losses, with the U.S. dollar breaking through 1.3305 against the Canadian dollar, having seen 1.3340. If the price of crude oil continues to fall, it will continue to bearish the Canadian dollar. Currently reference support levels 1.3315 and 1.3295, resistance 1.3360 and 1.3400.

Us crude oil futures USOIL
51.55/52.30 resistance
50.60/49.65 support
Crude oil futures fell as U.S. API inventories rose, crude oil inventories have risen sharply, bearish crude futures prices. Weak U.S. monthly CPI data for May and weak production and manufacturing data weighed against crude oil prices. Technically, refer to resistance of 51.55 and 52.30, then look down further at 50.60 and 49.65.

1338/1342 resistance
1330/1326 support
Fed officials have cut interest rates, which have boosted the dow and led to a correction in gold prices. But as the trade war between China and the United States continues to heat up, the outlook for the U.S. economy is uncertain. The Dow future fell after the U.S. reported a weak monthly CPI reading for may, pushing up gold prices. Test 1338 and 1342 resistance, and last week high 1346. Short-term support at $1330 and $1326.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26050/26170 resistance
25860/25785 support
The Dow future rose after the federal reserve rate-cutting comments, which had boosted investment sentiment. Positive comments from the Fed, though, could boost a rebound in U.S. stocks. However, the continued trade war between China and the United States has affected the economic outlook, and corporate profits are expected to decline, which is bearish for the stock market. Yesterday, the United States released the quarter adjusted CPI monthly rate for May, met the market expectation and bearish the market sentiment. Current reference support 25860 and 25785. Key support 25620.

8200 / 8450 resistance
7700 / 7450 support
Trade tension, US data showed slow down. Expected Fed fund rate will cut, bullish the bitcoin. Now, keeps watching the China and U.S. trade tension. If a positive outlook, bearish the price of Bitcoin. On the contrary, the Bitcoin will continue the uptrend.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

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