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ATFX Market Update - 2019.06.12


Personal opinions today:

Last week, the U.S. API crude oil stocks increased, bearish crude oil prices. With EIA crude oil stocks also expected to rise today, crude oil prices have a chance to test the $51 level.

US President Trump has said publicly that if China fails to reach the trade deal demanded by the US government, it will choose to intensify its trade war without any agreement. And Trump said he would meet with Chinese leaders at a G20 meeting end of this month. But whether the both can reach an agreement will be seen. Based on the current attitude of both sides, the market risk assessment, the dollar and the China yuan momentum is weak, the risk of flow into safe-haven assets. For example, gold, silver and yen. Equity assets may be left to other markets, in anticipation of negative Dow and global stock markets.

Today is the most noteworthy, the US CPI monthly rate in May. If U.S. inflation slows, as expected, to 0.1 percent, bearish dollar. Finally, if data in line with or above expectations could reverse the dollar's decline. Next the market will wait and see the U.S. stocks tonight and German and Eurozone data tomorrow.

[Important financial data and events]
09:30 China CPI annual rate in May
16:15 ECB President Mario Draghi attend Euro group meeting
20:30 US CPI monthly rate in May
22:30 US EIA crude oil stocks for the week ending June 7

Today suggestion:

1.1345/1.1360 resistance
1.1305/1.1290 support
The Eurozone Sentix sentiment index fell in June, while the U.S. PPl was flat in May. Yesterday the dollar had risen, the EURUSD lower, holding 1.1290 support. The dollar weakened from yesterday, because markets expected the US CPI to fall to 0.1 per cent in May. Believe dollar weakness, will continue to the data released. Whether EURUSD can challenge the 1.1360 resistance depends on the performance of US CPI result today and Eurozone economic data tomorrow. Technically, the EURUSD important resistance 1.1345 and 1.1360. If no break the resistance, it will focus on the downward of the EURUSD.

1.2745/1.2760 resistance
1.2685/1.2670 support
One of the nominees for Britain's next prime minister is Johnson. He advocated a hard brexit without a deal, which touched investor sentiment and bearish on pound. Current estimates, bearish trend and limit the rise in pound. Technically, pay attention to the first support position 1.2685 and the important support position 1.2670. Resistance level 1.2745 and key resistance 1.2760. If the euro remains strong and the pound falls, expect the euro to keep rising against the pound, testing the 0.90 level. The key support levels of 0.8875 and 0.8840 will be tested if the euro adjusts against sterling in the short term.

0.6970/0.6985 resistance
0.6945/0.6930 support
After the RBA cut interest rates, the Australian dollar will limit its rise against the U.S. dollar to 0.70 resistance. In addition, tensions over the trade war between the United States and China are hampering China's economy and Australia's resource exports, hurting the Australian dollar. If U.S. economic data shows weakness again and the U.S. dollar falls, the Australian dollar has a chance to rise against the U.S. dollar. The Australian dollar is expected to gain indirectly from a weaker than expected 0.1 percent rise in US CPI today. Technically, focus on short term AUDUSD 0.6970 and 0.6985 resistance. Reference support 0.6945 and 0.6930.

108.60/108.75 resistance
108.25/108.10 support
US crude stocks have risen, US President comments have undermined progress in trade talks and hurt investment confidence. The Dow and Nikkei fell and the dollar fell again against the yen after a 108.71 resistance failed. It is believed that the Dow future fell after the release of the expected fall in US CPI and the trade war between China and the US continued to dispute. Depending on the depth of the losses in the Dow and Nikkei, the USDJPY could test support at 108.00 or 107.80, respectively. Technically, USDJPY may hit a barrier before 109 resistance, careful reversal. Keep an eye on how the U.S. Dow and Nikkei affect the USDJPY trend.

1.3270/1.3250 support
1.3315/1.3330 resistance
Federal reserve officials said the rate cut, crude oil futures prices once rose to 54 dollars level, indirectly bullish the Canadian dollars. But crude oil prices fell as U.S. API crude stocks rose and EIA crude stocks were expected to rise. Against the Canadian dollar, the U.S. dollar lost 1.3250 and recovered 1.3305. If the price of crude oil continues to fall, it will continue to bearish the Canadian dollar.

Us crude oil futures USOIL
53.30/54.00 resistance
52.15/51.65 support
Crude oil futures fell as U.S. API inventories rose to 4.85 million barrels. In general, oil inventories have risen sharply, bearish crude futures prices. And the US President welcome to lower oil prices, which could be further affected crude oil price by his comments. Crude oil prices were weighed down by weak U.S. data today after the release of US CPI. Technically, refer to 53.30 and 54.00 resistance. Crude oil prices fell the previous support level of 52.85, further down 52.15 and 51.65. Significant support at $51.20.

1334/1338 resistance
1325/1321 support
Fed officials have cut interest rates, lifting the stock market, lifting the Dow future, leading to a correction in gold prices. The trade war between China and the United States continues to heat up recently, and the outlook for the U.S. economy is uncertain. Dow fall, it could push gold prices higher Keep an eye on resistance level 1338. Short-term support at $1325 and $1321.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26185/26255 resistance
25960/25785 support
The Dow future rose after the federal reserve rate-cutting comments, which had boosted investment sentiment. Positive comments from the Fed, though, could boost a rebound in U.S. Dow. However, the continued trade war between China and the United States has affected the economic outlook, and corporate profits are expected to decline, which is bad news for the stock market. Today, the United States released the quarter adjusted CPI monthly rate for May, the market is expected to fall. As advice yesterday, it was to watch for a reversal in the short term and now watch the data to see where the Dow goes next.

8200 / 8450 resistance
7700 / 7450 support
Trade tension, US data showed slow down. Expected Fed fund rate will cut, probably increasingthe bitcoin demand. Now, keeps watching the China and U.S. trade tension. If a positive outlook, bearish the price of Bitcoin. On the contrary, the Bitcoin will continue the uptrend.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

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