Personal opinions today:
China has issued a trade negotiation between the United States and China white paper, pointing out China's position on trade wars and trade negotiations with the United States. It is believed that the talks between China and the U.S. have reached a deadlock, and China's position is firm. If the U.S. President and the Commerce Department do not tone down their tough stance, it will be difficult to resolve the impasse before the G20 meeting at the end of June, improving the mood for investment and expectations of an economic slowdown. Besides, the market is watching the release of the U.S. employment report for May this week, ADP private market employment change and non-farm payrolls for May, as well as the unemployment rate and the average hourly wage. The US Non-farm payrolls in May are expected to fall to 190,000, the unemployment rate to 3.7 per cent and average hourly wages to rise just 0.1 per cent, according to market estimates. The Fed could cut interest rates in September if U.S. employment change slows in anticipation of a gloomy economic outlook. Investors may reduce their holdings of the dollar and dollar assets ahead of the U.S. jobs data, giving European currencies and commodity prices a chance to rise.
Focus today, Germany, Eurozone and UK manufacturing PMI for May, which would be positive for European currencies and sterling if they recorded growth. Besides, the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI in May. If the data slow down, the dollar will fall further. Conversely, the dollar rebounded.
[Important financial data and events concerned]
09:45 China Caixin manufacturing PMI for May
14:30 Swiss CPI for May
15:50 French manufacturing PMI for May
15:55 German manufacturing PMI for May
16:00 Eurozone manufacturing PMI for May
16:30 UK manufacturing PMI for May
21:45 US Markit manufacturing PMI for May
22:00 US construction expenditure in April
22:00 U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for May
The revised U.S. first-quarter real GDP hit estimate at 3.1%, while the Michigan consumer confidence index final fell, the dollar fell, and EURUSD rebounded. Markets are starting to look ahead to this week's U.S. jobs report this week, predicting the dollar's rise was limited. Besides, keep an eye on the manufacturing index today. Technically, 1.1185 and 1.1200 are estimated as the first target resistance, and 1.1160 as the support level.
US President Donald Trump is on a state visit to the UK this week before the UK parliament voted on the EU bill. It is believed that the risk of a hard Brexit remains high, and the US President's comments also affect the UK's political and economic outlook. Today, the market expected a slowdown in the UK manufacturing PMI for May was also negative today. Technically, GBPUSD significant resistance remains at 1.27, while short-term GBPUSD resistance at 1.2660 and 1.2680. If the breakthrough fails, the trend will continue to decline, and the estimate is to try the support level of 1.2605 and 1.2585.
The ongoing trade war between China and the United States has been weighing on Australia's economic outlook. Recently, the US government reported that the originally intended to impose additional tariffs on Australian imports, but finally cancelled the ideas. The news got AUDUSD boost. However, the Australian dollar's rise will be held back ahead RBA cut-rate tomorrow, which is expected to be 0.25 per cent. Technically, there are still downside risks to the AUDUSD. Expected, 0.6960 and 0.6980 resistance, 0.6925 and 0.6905 support. Under the expectation of interest rate cut by the reserve bank of Australia, AUDUSD has a chance to try 0.6905 or 0.6885 support.
U.S. and Japanese stock markets continued to fall with trade tensions between the United States and China, US Dow and Japan Nikkei index short-term volatility, USDJPY also volatility, and follow the direction of the Dow, judge the trend of USDJPY. Short term focus 108.05 and 107.85 support. If the Nikkei and Dow all up, watch for dollar resistance to 108.55 and 108.75.
An agreement on a US-Canada trade deal could help stabilise Canada's investment economy and confidence, potentially limiting the decline of the Canadian dollar. Today, the market is looking ahead to a weak U.S. jobs report this week if the U.S. manufacturing PMI comes in lower than expected in May, and believes the USDCAD could adjust to 1.3485 or below and 1.3545 resistance.
Us crude futures USOIL
The trade war between China and the United States has hit investment and production sentiment, and the United States has imposed tariffs on imports from Mexico. As a result, the global trade war is deadlocked. Technically, crude oil futures prices broke through multiple support levels. Without a rebound, breaking through a resistance of 53.85 and 54.40, crude oil price trend downward target to $50.
The trade war between China and the United States is tense and is expected to depress the U.S. economy. U.S. real GDP in the first quarter was just hit as expected, but the manufacturing PMI In May, the labour market is likely to slow in May, Treasury prices are expected to fall, and the federal reserve is expected to cut interest rates in September. Several positive factors in the gold price, gold prices rise. As this analysis pointed out last week, the market hedge funds began to flow into the gold market, the price of gold rose sharply. Gold prices could rise if the U.S. Dow Jones industrial average or global stocks fall further. On the contrary, gold prices downward adjustment.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
The US President said the China and US trade talks had made progress, but China's comments and white paper on the talks revealed China's position, which clearly shows that the trade war between China and us is still heating up. Besides, weak U.S. jobs data for May is expected to weigh against U.S. stocks. The lack of good news at the moment will hamper the market's upside. At present, the stock market is estimated to increase downward. Otherwise, any positive comments that could boost the stock market's rebound. It is currently recommended to focus on lower support 24540 and 24350, resistance 24745 and 24825.
9050 / 9250 resistance
8550 / 8300 support
Trade tension, US data showed slow down. Expected Fed will not be intended to interest hike, the bitcoin demand increasing. Technically the bitcoin price support at $8550 and 8309, probably reach to $9000. Now, keeps watching the China and U.S. trade tension. If a positive outlook, bearish the price of Bitcoin. On the contrary, the Bitcoin will continue the uptrend.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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Personal opinions today: