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ATFX Market Update - 2019.05.31


Personal opinions today:

After the release of US real GDP in the first quarter, the yields on Treasury bills and bonds returned to normal levels, improving the inversion of yields, reflecting an improvement in investor sentiment. The US statistics department noted that the real GDP in the first quarter keeping 3.1%, driven by consumption and exports. Most investor believe that the trade tensions between China and the United States continue. China and the United States have increased import tariffs on each other. Consumers and exporters have avoided imposing tariffs on each other. Market worried that global growth will slow and that a U.S. trade war with China could hurt U.S. economic prospects. Amid uncertainty over the investment outlook, US President Donald Trump yesterday gave a talk to stop the stock market dropped. Trump simply said that trade talks with China were progressing well but did nothing to address investor concerns. Investors are waiting for officials or leaders of the two countries formally negotiate.

Today, the market focus on the German CPI for May and the Canadian GDP for March. In the dollar, attention was paid to the core PCE price index in April and the final reading of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in May.

Expectations are that Germany CPI for May will be lower than previous readings and that the euro will be lower before the release. Canada GDP for March is expected to rise, ahead of the release of the forecast. However, the market expects the US core PCE price index to rise in April, adding to the dollar's gains. However, the final reading of the university of Michigan consumer confidence index for May may be lower than the previous reading, which may affect the dollar's strength.

[Important financial data and events concerned]
14:30 Swiss Real retail sales rate for April
16:30 Bank of England mortgage lending permit in April
20:00 Germany CPI monthly preliminary data for May
20:30 Canada GDP in March
20:30 US personal expenditure in April
20:30 US the core PCE price index in April
21:45 US Chicago PMI in May
22:00 US Michigan consumer confidence index for May

Today suggestion:
1.1120/1.1105 support
1.1150/1.1165 resistance
EURUSD have been in negative recently as Italy's fiscal deficit exceeds EU rules, undermining Italian investment confidence and confidence in the euro. In addition, U.S. economic growth remains strong, weighing on the euro, while EURUSD fell. But the dollar is likely to fall after first-quarter revisions to U.S. real GDP and U.S. economic data release today. Markets are starting to look ahead to the U.S. jobs report next week and expect the dollar's rise to stall. Technically, refer to low position 1.1105 on May 23. Calculate the Fibonacci wave and estimate the resistance of 1.1150 and 1.1165.

1.2640/1.2660 resistance
1.2605/1.2585 support
British parliament has voted to elect its next prime minister and to pass its fourth Brexit bill. It is believed that the risks of a hard Brexit remain high. Some financial institutions have pointed out that the pound may fall to 1.20, or even try 1.10. On the contrary, risk is reduced and the pound is expected to try 1.27 to 1.28. Technically, pound reference resistance levels of 1.2640 and 1.2660. Trend continues to downward, estimates under 1.2605 and 1.2585 support levels. The proposal is to wait for the result of the vote, and to start the direction of the pound.

0.6930/0.6945 resistance
0.6900/0.6880 support
The trade war between China and the United States has not subsided, affecting Australia's economic outlook worries, the rebound of AUDUSD blocked. U.S. economic growth remained strong, the U.S. dollar strengthened and the Australian dollar fell to 0.69. Technically, there are still downside risks to the AUDUSD. Today's U.S. economic data, especially the final reading of the university of Michigan consumer confidence index for May and any news about the trade talks between China and the United States, will help judge the trend of changes in AUDUSD and NZDUSD.

109.55/109.75 resistance
109.15/108.85 support
Japanese retail sales slowed in April, the Nikkei stock and USDJPY fell, USDJPY tried to close to a three-month low. With trade tensions between China and the US, it is hard to see the dollar getting much of a boost USDJPY as equity markets continue to fall. The US released a number of important reference economic data today, suggest the focus on all economic data performance. Estimated that the Dow and the Nikkei index volatility, the USDJPY also volatility, and follow the direction of the Dow, catch up the trend of the USDJPY.

1.3545/1.3565 resistance
1.3485/1.3465 support
After the Bank of Canada remains the interest rates, the central bank expressed concern about the future economic outlook, investment sentiment cautious. Canada was widening the current account deficit in the first quarter and falling crude oil futures prices pushed the Canadian dollar lower, USDCAD back to 1.3545. But we got good news for the Canadian dollar. The preliminary agreement on a trade deal between the United States, Mexico and Canada will help stabilize Canadian investment confidence. In addition, expected the U.S. economy is weaker today, if the U.S. dollar falls, the USDCAD may adjust to 1.3485 or below.

Us crude futures USOIL
57.85/58.40 resistance
55.85/54.85 support
The trade war between China and the United States hit investment and production confidence, and the demand for crude oil decreased. The crude oil price changed from rising to falling after the us API and EIA crude oil inventory data. Technically, crude oil prices are expected to test resistance at $59.75 after testing resistance at $59.05. But crude oil demand has fallen in anticipation of a global economic slowdown. Estimated crude oil prices failed to break through resistance, below 58.40 and $57.85 support level. It is currently technically testing at $54.85, which is 50% of the adjusted wave.

1295/1297 resistance
1285/1283 support
The trade war between China and the United States is tense. The market and this analysis pointed out earlier that the trade war between China and the United States is expected to make the United States economic recession. Besides, the U.S. real GDP in the first quarter held up expectations, and the Fed reserve is expected to cut interest rates in September, boosting gold prices. What we're seeing now is that hedge funds are starting to flow into the gold market, and the price of gold is rising dramatically. Short-term references are recommended for 1285 and 1283 support, resistance 1295 and 1297. Gold prices rise if the U.S. Dow Jones industrial average or global stocks fall further. On the contrary, the price of gold fell.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
25215/25320 resistance
24940/24850 support
The United States reported revised first-quarter real GDP figures that were only in line with market expectations. In line with expectations, the dow had risen. For now, whether the dow can rise further depends on when trade talks between China and the us resume. The lack of good news will prevent the stock market from rising. Currently, it is expected that the increased downward pressure on the stock market will force the us to return to the negotiating table, which is good for the stock market. Current resistance recommendations are 25215 and 25320. Support assuming 24940 and 24850 below.

8950 / 9250 resistance
8550 / 8300 support
Trade tension, US data showed slow down. Expected Fed will not be intended to interest hike, the bitcoin demand increasing. Technically the bitcoin price breakthrough $8000 and probably reach to $9000. Now, keeps watching the China and U.S. trade tension. If a positive outlook, bearish the price of Bitcoin. On the contrary, the Bitcoin will continue the uptrend.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

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