Personal opinions today
Federal reserve minutes showed the U.S. economy remains stable, at an appropriate level, and have no intention of changing Fed fund rates. But the minutes added that US trade tensions over global could drag down growth and even hurt the US economy downturn. The markets believing short-term U.S. economic performance well and the dollar stronger. However, the trade war between China and the US never subsided, and the Dow fell, closing down over 100 points from the previous day, leading to the gold price and Japanese yen rose. External factors gradually change, the dollar index may finally fail to break through 98.35 resistance, trend could reversal.
A number of important Eurozone data out today suggest looking at that during European trading hours. In U.S. trading hours, keep an eye on U.S. jobless claims for the last week and the US Markit manufacturing and services PMI for May and total new home sales for April. If the U.S. data results disappoint markets, the dollar could fall.
[Important financial data and events to watch]
14:00 Germany final quarterly GDP in Q1
15:30 German manufacturing PMI for May
16:00 Eurozone manufacturing PMI for May
16:00 German May IFO business climate index
19:30 ECB monetary policy minutes for April
20:30 U.S. jobless claims for the week ended May 18
20:30 Canada wholesale sales rate of March
21:45 US Markit manufacturing and services PMI for May
22:00 US Total new home sales in April
22:30 U.S. EIA natural gas inventories for the last week
Markets are watching the Eurozone economic data, with expectations for a slight rise in the manufacturing PMI. A stronger dollar would weigh on the euro if U.S. economic data beat expectations. Technically, the reference resistance is at 1.1180 and 1.1200, with support at 1.1150 and 1.1135. But for strong Eurozone data or weak U.S. economic data, the market believe the euro would face headwinds to 1.1200.
The UK parliament continues to debate the Brexit agreement. At present, members of parliament are oppose the U.K. Prime minister May. There were no UK data released today, but expectations of a rise in the euro led to some pound gains. Technically, the important reference resistance to the pound fell to 1.2720, if the price did not break through, the trend continues to decline. Continue to try 1.2605 and 1.2570 support bits.
The Reserve bank of Australia (RBA) increased its chances of cutting interest rates next month when it released minutes of its may meeting. In addition, trade war did not calm down, and the Australian dollar fell in anticipation of slowing Australia's economic growth, indirectly affecting the New Zealand dollar fell. Technically, there are still downside risks to the AUDUSD. The initial target support level is 0.6865. If AUDUSD break through the support level, the lower target of 0.6835 and 0.6805. Otherwise, it is expected to rise to 0.6890 and 0.6920. Keep watching in the trade war between China and the US in the short term.
The trade war tensions, investors lost confidence, sentiment down. Dow and Nikkei fell respectively, and the USDJPY followed from 110.65 down to 110.05. If a trade war between China and the US fails to improve the atmosphere and China and the United States resume consultations and talks, it is believed that the investment climate will still be affected. The stock market fell, leading USDJPY to the same way. Conversely, the dollar rose against the yen.
Canada reported better-than-expected retail sales in March as markets limited the rise in the Canadian dollar ahead of the release. Crude oil futures fell and the Canadian dollar followed fell. Technically, the USDCAD hits 1.3400 after, by external factors, the Canadian dollar fell. It is recommended to keep an eye on the trend of crude oil prices. If crude oil prices continue to fall, the USDCAD may test 1.3475 or 1.3505.
U.S. crude futures USOIL
U.S. API and ElA crude stock remain high level and crude prices fell. In addition, there are concerns that Russia and other non-OPEC members may oppose a production cut, leading to the possibility of an oversupply of crude oil, which is bad for crude prices. For technical adjustment of crude oil prices, refer to the support of $60.45 and $60.15, and the resistance of 62.65 and 63.05.
Trade tensions shows no sign of abating and the Dow is down. In addition, the Fed had intended no interest hikes in mind, and gold prices rose. In general, it is recommended to keep an eye on the news related to trade negotiations or the performance of Dow Jones index to catch the trend of gold price. If positive news or the Dow rises, gold prices are expected to fall. Conversely, gold prices could rebound. Technically, the 1271 and 1269 support. No breakthrough go down, gold prices are expected to rebound.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
Trade tensions has not solve, and there is no timetable for the negotiations. The Dow Jones industrial average fell on jitters after the U.S. trade department extended trade talks to Europe and Japan. U.S. trade talks with the rest of the world have been murky, and no need any technical indicator analysis, also understand the downside risks. The Dow has a chance to deepen its losses if tensions between the U.S. and China return and trade talks between Europe and Japan turn sour. Current recommendations focus on resistance at 25855 and 25940. Lower support targets 25515 and 25425.
8150 / 8550 resistance
7550 / 7300 support
China and U.S. tension, global stock markets fell; Dow overall decline, Fed no intended to interest hike, the bitcoin demand increasing. Technically the bitcoin price back and breakthrough $7500, next target could $8000. Now, keeps watching the China and U.S. trade tension. If a positive outlook, bearish the price of Bitcoin. If contrary, the Bitcoin will continue the uptrend.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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Personal opinions today