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ATFX Market Update - 2019.05.16


Personal opinions today

Markets focused today on the Eurozone seasonally adjusted trade balance for March and U.S. jobless claims for the week. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index and housing starts are also for reference. Please pay attention to the US-China trade talks news and the Dow’s trend. The US President said reopen the US-China trade talks and believes the US trade secretary will travel to Beijing before late June to discuss, seems to improve the investment climate. On further positive news, then the stock market rose, and gold and the yen fell. More importantly, it is expected to benefit the Australia dollar, the New Zealand dollar, and the Chinese RMB.

[Important financial data and events to watch]
17:00 Eurozone quarter adjusted trade account
20:30 U.S. jobless claims
20:30 U.S.Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for May
20:30 U.S. building permits and housing starts for April
22:30 Canada releases its assessment of the financial system
23:00 Canada Bank of Canada answer questions on the financial system assessment report
To be confirmed ECB President Mario Draghi attends Eurogroup meeting

Today's suggestion:

1.1185/1.1170 support
1.1240/1.1260 resistance
The Euro was supported by GDP in Germany and the Eurozone yesterday. Besides, U.S. retail sales and April industrial output worse than the market expected, and the euro rose. Technically, the reference resistance at 1.1240 and reference support at 1.1185.

1.2815/1.2790 support
1.2880/1.2905 resistance
The UK has failed to implement the Brexit agreement, investors confidence lost in the UK economy and investment sentiment, GBP fell. Euro rose, but GBP was unable to benefit, following the rise. With good news and data support, the GBPUSD is expected to follow to rise. Technically, GBPUSD resistance of 1.2905, keep downtrend, is testing 1.2790 in three months low

0.6955/0.6970 resistance
0.6910/0.6890 support
The US-China trade war, the market worried about the decline in global demand, the impact of Australian exports, the Australian dollar continued to fall. At present, US-China trade relations are still not very well, and the trend of the Australian dollar continues to be bearish. The New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar often move in the same direction, with the Australian dollar currently focused on support of 0.6910 and 0.6890 and the New Zealand dollar on the support of 0.6545. If US-China trade talks confirm, the trend of AUD and the NZD is likely to rebound.

109.75/109.95 resistance
109.35/109.15 support
Japan's Nikkei index fell on fears of economic recovery after a trade war between China and the United States. Funds flowed back into the yen as a result of the carry trade. The dollar has tracked the Nikkei's performance against the yen and will struggle to rebound sharply without any news to improve sentiment and lift stocks. In the short term, the market is looking for an improvement in the US-China trade war.

1.3475/1.3505 resistance
1.3435/1.3405 support
Crude oil futures rose on worries about tight supplies in the Middle East, helping the Canadian dollar to offset yesterday's poor Canadian data. Technical trends, the U.S. dollar from the Canadian dollar down from 1.3475, met the suggested support at 1.3435. However, US-China trade negotiations and relations have not improved, and crude oil prices are likely to fall.

U.S. crude futures USOIL
61.05/60.65 support
62.85/63.25 resistance
Tensions in the Middle East supported the rise in crude oil prices, but the trade talks between China and the United States failed and limited the crude oil demand. A possible resumption of trade talks between the U.S. and China could support crude oil prices. Technically, the reference support is $61.05 and $60.65, with preliminary targets of $62.85 and $63.25 resistance.

1300/1302 resistance
1293/1291 support
Tensions between China and the United States affected global stock markets. Capital flow to gold, which has rallied above $1,290, but limited between 1300 and 1302 resistance. Please pay attention to US-China trade news updates or keep watching the Dow performance. If positive news, led the stock market rebound, gold prices are expected to fall, test support.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
25715/25810 resistance
25455/25305 support
China and the United States trade talks intend to reopen, the Dow rose. The Dow is expected to continue to rise if trade talks between China and the United States confirmed. On the contrary, relations tensions, the investment climate lost, the stock market fall. Current keep focus on suggestion resistance and support levels.

8150 / 8550 resistance
7750 / 7600 support
China and U.S. tension, global stock markets fell; Dow overall decline, the bitcoin demand increasing. Technically the bitcoin price broke $7500, forecast to $8000. Now, keeps watching the China and U.S. trade tension. If a positive outlook, bearish the price of Bitcoin. If contrary, the Bitcoin will continue the uptrend.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

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