ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 May 13
Personal opinions today
No progress has been made in the 11th round of sino-us trade talks, which collapsed after the US President threatened to impose a 25 per cent tariff on Chinese imports. After the meeting, the two sides did not plan time for their next meeting. It is believed that the leaders of the two countries will have a chance to meet at the g20 meeting next month and see if they can ease relations.
The United States has imposed tariffs on Chinese goods. The outlook for global economic growth is uncertain. Money flowed into gold and the yen, while European currencies also benefited. Australia and New Zealand, China's trading partners, suffered as their currencies fell. Oil prices are under pressure as the economy and production slow in anticipation. If the sino-us trade relationship does not improve in the short term, market risks will increase and there will be a chance to repeat the market trend of previous years.
There is no important data released today, it is recommended to look ahead to tomorrow's data, forecast trend trend. Japan's trade balance for march, Germany's final monthly CPI rate for April, UK's unemployment rate for April, UK's jobless claims for April, eurozone's industrial output rate for march and us import price index for April.
[Important financial data and events to watch]
(Hong Kong stock exchange will be closed on the day following Buddha's birthday)
14:30 French BOF business confidence index for April
Federal reserve rosengren delivers welcome speech
21:10 fed vice chairman larry klarida delivers opening remarks
Trade talks between China and the US have collapsed, with money flowing into the euro, pushing up euro. If this week's eurozone economic data does not disappoint, the euro has a chance to test the 1.13 level. Technically, the euro/dollar daily chart reference resistance of 1.1260 and reference support of 1.1185. If European economic data disappoint, a further bad news from US and China relations, could boost the euro and the Swiss franc as money flows into the euro.
The Brexit still has no solution, which affects the confidence to investment. The GBPUSD continue to trade at or below 1.30, which was as low as 1.2965 recently. The euro rose in the short term, with the GBP following. Technically, the GBPUSD not breakthrough the 1.3040 resistance, the trend is decline. If the negative sentiment continues to affect the UK, the GBPUSD may try below 1.2950. Reference resistance is 1.3040 and 1.3075.
No improvement in China and US trade relations has affected the exchange rate of China RMB and the Australian dollar. The Australian dollar is likely to continue to fall as trade relations between the U.S. and dollar is terrible. The trend of the New Zealand dollar will follow the Australian dollar. At present, the Australian dollar is focused on the support of 0.6965, while the New Zealand dollar is focused on the support of 0.6545. If the China and US trade relationship improved, the trend of the Australia dollar and New Zealand dollar is likely to reverse.
Trade talks between China and the United States have strained markets, with the Nikkei falling and the USDJPY following, which is likely to test 109.45 or below. The USDJPY will have a chance to rally if any news improves the market sentiment and boosts stocks. But the current resistance targets are 110.05 and 110.30. It is recommended to refer to the fluctuations of the U.S. Dow and Nikkei. If the stock market volatility, the USDJPY also volatility.
No any progress in the trade talks between the U.S. and China, and the price of crude oil futures fell, also hurting the Canadian dollar. Technical trends, the USDCAD continued to hover around $1.3475. If the situation of China and US talks remains unchanged and crude oil demand is expected to fall, the Canadian dollar will continue to be negative, possibly reaching the 1.35 level.
U.S. crude futures USOIL
The China and US trade negotiation ended in failure. The United States is raising the requisition for Chinese imports to an extra tariff, which is causing the productivity to slow down expected, affecting the demand for crude oil. Technically, the key support level is $60.85, and a breakout test could be below $60.05 to $58. Please keep an eye on the China and US trade negotiations.
U.S. and China progress in trade talks is terrible, contributed to the global stock market fell, money flowing into gold against the global economy and stock market go down. Now that the relationship is unresolved, gold prices could up. Gold has a chance to go up to $1,292 or $1,295. If tensions between the two countries are expected to solve, gold is expected to test support at 1279. It is recommended to pay attention to the fluctuations of the U.S. Dow and Nikkei indexes to catch up the market sentiment and trend.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
The U.S. increased tariffs on China imports, the investment climate turns sour and the Dow fell. In any case, the market is waiting to see the final outcome of China and US negotiations to confirm where the trend is heading. Technically, continue with resistance at 26360 and 26535, support at 25785 and 25215. Please pay attention to China and US trade negotiations, any positive or negative news will affect Dow.
7265 / 7550 resistance
6750 / 6600 support
China and U.S. tension, global stock markets fell; Dow decline, the bitcoin demand increasing. Technically the bitcoin pricebroke $6265, the price reached $7000. Now, keeps watching the China and U.S. trade talks. If positive outlook, bearish the price of Bitcoin. If negative, the Bitcoin will keep uptrend.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: email@example.com or wechat: ATFX_China
Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.
ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading