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ATFX Market Update - 2019.05.02


Personal opinions today

The economic and trade consultations between China and the United States in Beijing have concluded, and officials from the two countries will hold their eleventh round of talks in Washington next week. U.S. have reported that the two countries are close to an agreement to eliminate some of the tariffs. Media reported that China and the United States in the intellectual property rights and forced technology transfer problems such as progress, sources said, whether the United States and at what time, lift tariffs on Chinese goods worth $250 billion, could be the last one of the problem to be solved, U.S. officials said, enforcement mechanism and cancellation of the agreement tariff schedule; Some Chinese officials also acknowledge that enforcement mechanisms are crucial, but must be two-way and not limited to China alone. The progress made in the talks has contributed to the positive trend of Asian stock markets, especially the rise of China's A50 index, as well as the positive trend of the relative currencies, such AUD and NZD.

U.S. ADP payrolls rose to 275,000, beating market expectations, which is expected U.S. non-farm payrolls rose over expectations for 185,000. But with U.S. manufacturing PMI and construction spending falling, the dollar fall in the face of a potential wage cut. In addition, the FOMC statement that it continues to be patient in waiting for a rate hike. That represents expectations that the U.S. economy is still suffering from a slowdown that could affect the dollar's strength.

[Important financial data and events to watch]
(Japan stock market, China a-share market, Shanghai gold exchange and China futures market closed)
14:30 Switzerland real retail sales in March
16:00 Eurozone manufacturing PMI in April
19:00 U.K. Bank of England interest rate decision
19:30 U.K. Bank of England press conference
19:30 U.S. corporate challenger layoffs in April
20:30 U.S. jobless claims for the week ended April 27
22:00 U.S. factory orders in March
22:30 U.S. EIA natural gas inventories

Today's suggestion :

1.1220/1.1240 resistance
1.1175/1.1155 support
The dollar was certainly stronger against the euro after the FOMC meeting. In addition, U.S. private payrolls rose more than expected, the dollar did well and the euro fell from its highs. The euro's gains were limited ahead of expectations the non-farm payrolls data tomorrow. Technically, the EURUSD once tried the resistance close to 1.1265, but failed. If its fail again, there will be an opportunity to test support 1.1175 and 1.1155. In short-term, refer to 1.1220 and 1.1240 resistance.

1.3080/1.3095 resistance
1.3015/1.2995 support
The GBP rebounded as the house of Commons was expected to reach a consensus to contribute to Brexit arrangements and remove some of the market uncertainty. The Bank of England is expected to reiterate its stance on the slowing economy and keep interest rates on hold today, which is bearish for GBP. Also, the GBP fell by a strong dollar on expectations of a rise in U.S. non-farm payrolls. Technically, GBP reference resistance at $1.3100. Technical reference resistance levels are 1.3080 and 1.3095. The first targets support 1.3015 and 1.2995.

0.7015/0.7000 support
0.7050/0.7065 resistance
The 10th round of China and US trade negotiations has completed. Both have expressed their positions and plan to hold the 11th round of talks in Washington next week. Everything seems positive. Technically, AUDUSD adjusted 73.6 percent then rebound. If its recalculated, the preliminary estimates rebound, target is 0.7050 and 0.7065. The next target is 0.7100. Generally, the trend of AUD can indirectly lead the NZD. NZD support level, see at 0.6615. Resistance at 0.6665, further up at 0.6700.

112.00/112.15 resistance
111.35/111.20 support
The market volatility, the FOMC interest rate and the US job data, fluctuations on the JPY. Short-term technical reference support at 111.30, above resistance at 112.00, expected to fluctuate with the U.S. Dow and U.S. job data performance, the USDJPY have an opportunity to test the 112 level.

1.3460/1.3475 resistance
1.3405/1.3375 support
The Bank of Canada would keep interest rates unchanged and expected to raise them when the economy improves. The Canadian dollar steadied after the comments. The crude oil prices rise, positive Canadian dollar. Technical, the USDCAD has started a wave below a wave trend, 1.3460 and 1.3475 can be reference resistance. If the USDCAD tests below 1.3405 and breaks through, it is expected to test 1.3375 or below.

U.S. crude futures USOIL
62.75/62.25 support
63.60/64.05 resistance
The U.S. API and ElA crude inventories increased sharply, and crude oil prices fell, tested the support of 62.75. The FOMC reiterated interest rates unchanged its support for crude oil prices rose. Technically, crude oil prices are expected to remain above 62.75 and 62.25, with futures still looking to return to $66. If China and US trade negotiations positive and the tight supply of crude oil, it will drive up crude oil prices.

1278/1282 resistance
1272/1268 support
US private sector jobs rose sharply, and the FOMC stopped short of cutting interest rates and their comments were positive for the dollar and negative for gold, which fell below $1,278. Technical resistance targets are $1,278 and $1,282. If the dollar continues to strengthen, gold prices are likely to test support for 1272 and 1268.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26380/26315 support
26465/26600 resistance
China and the US held meeting on next Friday and expected cut the import tariffs on $250 billion worth of goods, supporting the investment climate. In addition, the market was also helped by expectations of job growth at U.S. which could be improved Dow. Technically, DJI refer to 26465 or 26315 support and 26465 or 2600 resistance.

5650 / 5800 resistance
5200 / 5070 support
The FOMC keeps the interest rates unchanged, the bitcoin price could up. Now the market waiting for the US non-farm payroll results. If good number, positive bitcoin. Technically the bitcoin price is expected testing US5500, test lower support 5200 or 5070 support.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

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