Personal opinions today
The US March CPI and core CPl results will be released tomorrow, with data reflect the U.S. first-quarter inflation and the Fed's monetary policy in future. As long as the CPl recorded growth above market expectations, it may stimulate market investment confidence and change the Fed's suspension of interest rate hikes, it could further boost the dollar. Just ahead of the data and minutes from the FOMC minutes, the dollar had a slight correction.
All the financial reports to watch today and tomorrow, the most notable is the IMF's latest world growth forecast. If the report showed the global economy slowdown, particularly in the United States, could hurt the dollar. If the dollar falls, European currencies, commodity currencies and gold have a chance to rise, while oil prices have a chance to fall. Another report, API will release its crude oil inventory. If the short term energy outlook declines and crude oil inventory increases unexpectedly, the crude oil price may be decline.
[Important financial data and events to watch]
13:45 Swiss unemployment rate in March
18:00 U.S. NFIB small business sentiment index in March
21:00 the IMF releases its latest world growth forecast
The next day 0:00 EIA monthly short-term energy outlook
The next day 4:30 U.S. API crude oil inventories
U.S. March CPl data, ECB monetary policy decisions and ECB press conference released tomorrow. ECB President speech and monetary policy orientation, become the focus of the market. It is estimated that the eurozone economy needs to bear the downside risks by Brexit, and the euro will be affected. Technically, the euro is adjusting against the dollar to break out of resistance at $1.1250 but has rebounded 38.2 per cent and 50 per cent to trade at $1.1285 and $1.1310, respectively. If the ECB's monetary policy remains accommodative, the recommended headwinds mentioned above will be key. And the euro could also test important support at 1.1185.
This week marks a pivotal moment for Britain, with the Brexit deadline on Friday. While the House of Commons has rejected the UK's no-deal Brexit, the EU could also veto the UK's application for an extension. If the UK leaves the EU without a deal, known as a "hard Brexit", it could trigger turmoil in European markets. First, the pound could fall. It is estimated that in the next three days, there will be an update in the afternoon local time in the UK, which will affect the short-term fluctuations of the pound. Please keep on eyes, look at the progress. Technically, the initial target resistance range of 1.3070 and 1.3120 is expected. As long as there is no break through the important resistance of 1.1370, the support of 1.3000 and 1.2960 can be referred.
The Brexit story remains unclear, with the dollar currently trading above 0.9975 against the Swiss franc, extending resistance to 1.0005. If the dollar is weak at this point and the dollar is trading at 0.9975 and 0.9960 against the Swiss franc, it could move in a tight range against the Swiss franc, depending on the U.S. March CPl and core CPl results and FOMC minutes. The technical reference between 1.0005, 1.0030 resistance and 0.9975, 0.9960 support, waiting for a breakthrough.
China and the US will enter another phase of their trade negotiations, where the two sides will hold a video conference to discuss to revise the final trade agreement. A Chinese spokesman said the talks needed patience and looked forward to concluding in May. As the negotiations were not completed and investment sentiment cooled, the Dow Jones industrial average and the Nikkei index fell respectively, and the dollar also fell against the yen in line with the stock market trend. Technically, the psychological resistance of the dollar against the yen remains at 112. However, under the changing market sentiment, the USDJPY testing the support level reference 111.25 and 111.05 support. Key support at 110.95.
China and the US have concluded trade negotiations, and the overall progress is good, but the two sides still have not decided when to end the trade war date, the trend of the Australian dollar may be adjusted. Technically, 0.7145 and 0.7165 are important resistance level references. A negative U.S. news could lift the AUDUSD, testing resistance at 0.7145 or 0.7165. But the AUD is likely to move in a tight range against the USD in the short term until the market get the U.S. March CPl and core CPl results.
The NZD continued to move lower against the U.S. dollar after trade talks between China and the US ended without an agreement. Technically, the reference resistance to the dollar was 0.6745 and 0.6775. Reference support bits 0.6720 and 0.6695. It is worth mentioning that the February low is 0.6720, if the broken support, the trend may be further lower. The dollar is likely to rise and fall in a tight range against the dollar in the short term, according to the U.S. March CPl and core CPl results and the Fed minutes outcome.
The crude oil prices were climbing to $64, a positive for the Canadian dollar. Before the EIA's monthly short-term energy outlook and U.S. API crude inventories for the week ended April 5 results, limited the rise in the Canadian dollar. Technically, the USDCAD key support levels are 1.3305 and 1.3280, with reference resistance at 1.3350 and 1.3375. Watching the oil market news update today and tomorrow, how’s affected the Canadian dollar.
U.S. non-farm payrolls returned to normal in March, but average hourly wages fell at a monthly rate and at an annual rate, slowing wage growth and limiting the dollar's gains, gold prices rebounded from its lows. Moreover, gold prices will be determined by the risk of a hard Brexit. Brexit is still not clear, and time is approaching, the gold price yesterday rose to $1,303 resistance. At present, the sentiment may continue to heat up, gold prices significantly downward adjustment opportunity rate is not high. Preliminary estimates show gold prices consolidating between 1292 and 1294 support levels, with reference resistance at 1303 and 1305.
U.S. crude futures USOIL
The EIA releases its monthly short-term energy outlook tonight and API and EIA crude inventories for last week will be released tomorrow. If the short-term energy outlook is negative and crude oil inventories increase significantly, the rise in crude oil prices may be limited and accompanied by a correction. In addition, the U.S. market is evaluating the March CPl and core CPl, crude prices are likely to adjust their gains, with a chance to test the support of an initial target of $63.65.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
The Dow Jones industrial average was hit by the lack of final results from trade talks and is awaiting U.S. March CPl and core CPl results and Fed minutes released tomorrow. Market investment climate turned prudent, the U.S. Dow trend adjustment. The initial support bits are 26130 and 26055. In terms of resistance levels, refer to last Friday's high of 26480 and the 4-hour moving average of 26345.
5080 / 5200 resistance
4760 / 4600 support
The Brexit risk is leading the bitcoin price rose, but the US non-farm payrolls data recovered in March, the bitcoin price will fall. The market is waiting for the U.S. March CPl and core CPl results. Before these data and the FOMC minutes, the bitcoin price will be limited to go further up and maybe downward.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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Personal opinions today