Dollar day todayBy Arnaud Masset
It could go up or down: an upside inflation surprise could boost the dollar; a whiff of higher interest rates could send it stumbling.
Today’s trigger for the first is release this afternoon of the core personal consumption measure, or Core PCE. This indicator is closely monitored by the Fed, so an unexpected rise could send its hawks into flight. Core PCE is expected at 1.5% annualised. Today’s trigger for the second is upcoming testimony of US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to the US Senate’s Banking Committee. Will he confirm his recent suggestion that the Fed will hike rates in 2018 four times? All-in-all, risk is skewed downside for the USD.
EUR/USD is trading around the bottom of its monthly range. A break of the strong 1.2165 support will open the door towards 1.20, then 1.1916 (low from 9 January). On the upside, a first resistance can be found at around 1.2350 (previous highs), then 1.2555 (high 16 February).
Indian growing fastestBy Vincent-Frédéric Mivelaz
Q4 2017 Gross Domestic Product published on Wednesday was welcomed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi: it came in at 7.20% (consensus was 6.90%), against Q3 and Q2 at 6.30% and 5.70%. This makes India the fastest-growing economy in relative terms, as China slows in consumption and manufacturing. The Indian Sensex did not raise its glass to the party, instead falling 0.56% along with equities worldwide.