It was the dollar’s day as US Treasury yields hit their highest level of the year. The main catalyst for the sell-off in Treasuries was the much higher-than-expected ISM non-manufacturing index, which rose to 61.6 from 58.5 (expected to fall to 58.0). This was its highest level since 1997. A higher-than-expected ADP report (+230k jobs vs +184k expected) also helped, but the big move was after the ISM was released.
Usually the ISM non-manufacturing index isn’t that important, but what got people excited this time was the surge in the non-manufacturing employment index to a record 62.4, a large jump from the already healthy level of 56.7. If we put the two employment indices together (manufacturing and non-manufacturing) and weight them the same as the composite ISM index is weighted, that brings it to a record level.
Read More