There’s a definite “risk on” mood in the markets this morning on optimism over the US-China trade talks. US stocks closed higher Friday (S&P 500 +1.1%) and most Asian markets are up solidly this morning, except India. Trump said last week’s China trade talks were “very productive” and were making “big progress.” It seems they may either reach an agreement or extend talks, which reduces the likelihood that the US tariffs are increased.
This “risk on” mood is negative for the dollar even though the US economy would of course be one of the main beneficiaries of a US-China agreement. Nonetheless, USD was lower. Part of that is also due to comments Friday by San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who said that if the economy evolves as she sees it this year, “then I think the case for a rate increase isn’t there.” Note though that a) Daly does not vote on the FOMC this year, and b) she’s a well-known dove, so her comments are no surprise.