CAD up on NAFTA, EUR down on Italy; Quarles, Powell speak

CAD gained throughout much of the day on enthusiasm after the US agreed on a NAFTA deal with Canada. Never mind that the deal wasn’t as good for the US as would’ve been the case with the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), which Trump rejecetd shortly after taking office. I think there could be some mean reversion in CAD today that would see the currency fall back a bit.
AUD was also stronger. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held rates steady, as was uniformly expected. The statement following the meeting was virtually the same as in the previous month, with only a few minor changes. I can’t see anything in the comment worth trading on. Looking at the graph of AUD/NZD, it seems that the big move up was at around 21:00 GMT yesterday, well before the RBA meeting at 04:30 GTM. That was right when the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research published its quarterly survey of business opinion, showing that Q3 business confidence in New Zealand fell to a nine-year low. So my guess is that the rise in AUD today was more a reflection of NZD weakness than anything having to do with AUD. Indeed, following the RBA meeting, AUD/USD is virtually unchanged from beforehand.

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