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WTI Crude, Gold And US Dollar Index: Technical Update

WTI Crude Oil

Ever since the Saudi Arabian Energy Minister signaled possible talks on Oil production freeze during September meeting of global energy producers, the Crude prices rallied sharply. The energy vehicle got additional boost on Wednesday when the US inventories unexpectedly shrank, which in-turn fueled the prices beyond two-month old descending trend-line. However, overbought RSI and profit-booking moves on Friday dragged it a bit around $48.00, near to $47.50 support, breaking which $46.80 and the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its January – June upside, at $46.30, are likely downside numbers to be seen on the chart. Given the Oil quote dips below $46.30, the $45-60-50 becomes an important support confluence to watch that encompasses 50-day & 100-day SMA together with mentioned TL, which if broken may ignite $43.50 support level. Alternatively, $49.00 and the $49.70 are likely nearby resistances that the Crude prices can aim prior to visiting the $50.50–60 horizontal resistance, surpassing which chances of its surge to June highs of $52.10 can't be denied. If the energy prices remain strong enough beyond $52.10, the 61.8% FE level of $53.90, followed by $54.00 round figure, can entertain the Bulls.


Following its failure to clear the $1375 on a closing basis, the Gold prices portrayed a short-term symmetrical triangle formation. The yellow metal presently aims to re-test the $1337-36 pattern support, clearing which 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its May – July upside, near $1332, and the $1322 are likely intermediate levels that it can witness before resting around $1309–07 support-zone, including 38.2% Fibo. Should the metal prices decline below $1307, the $1294 can offer small barrier ahead of making the bullion visit $1288-87 support-zone, including 100-day SMA and 50% Fibo. On the upside, $1362 resistance-line can continue restricting the metal's upside, breaking which $1366 and the $1375 are expected north-side numbers that needs to be tackled. Given the yellow metal closes above $1375, it becomes capable enough to print $1388 mark, comprising 61.8% FE of its late-June to July surge.

US Dollar Index [I.USDX]

While the US Dollar Index's reversal from 200-day SMA dragged it to below 100-day SMA and mark the lowest level since Brexit-day, an upward slanting trend-line support of 94.10 confined the gauge's further downside on Thursday, triggering the present pullback reaction to 94.65-70 resistance. Given the index surpasses 94.70, 100-day SMA level of 95.00 and the 95.80-85 might please the greenback bulls, clearing which 50% Fibonacci Retracement of December 2015 – May 2016 decline, at 96.25, and the 200-day SMA of 96.50 can pose strong challenge to its strength. Meanwhile, 23.6% Fibo level of 93.90 and the 93.40 are expected numbers on south that can emerge if the index drops below 94.10 TL support. During its further south-run below 93.40, the 93.00 and the 92.55 can provide rest-points to the gauge's southwards trajectory towards May month lows of 91.90.

Cheers and safe trading,

Anil Panchal

Monday, 22 Aug, 2016 / 5:11

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