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Weekly Outlook: Dec 02 – Dec 06: RBA and BoC Rate Decisions, NFPs and OPEC Meeting

This week, we have two central banks deciding on monetary policy: the RBA and the BoC. Both of them are expected to stand pat and thus, market attention is likely to fall on the accompanying statements for signals with regards to their future course of action. On Thursday, OPEC and major non-OPEC oil producers gather to decide on oil output, while on Friday, we get employment data from both the US and Canada.

Monday is a relatively light day, with the only releases worth mentioning being the final Markit manufacturing PMIs from the Eurozone, the UK, and the US, as well as the ISM manufacturing index, all for November. As it is always the case, the final Markit prints are expected to confirm their preliminary estimates, while the ISM index is forecast to have risen, but to have remained within the contractionary territory. Specifically, it is expected to have increased to 49.2 from 48.3.

On Tuesday, during the Asian morning, we have an RBA monetary policy meeting. At its previous gathering, the Bank decided to stand pat as was widely anticipated, and reiterated that they will continue to monitor developments, including in the labour market, and that they are prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed. However, officials added a part saying that the easing in monetary policy since June is supporting employment and income growth, as well as a return of inflation to the medium-term target range. In our view, this was a signal that they are done cutting rates for now, unless something unexpected happens.

Since then, data showed that the unemployment rate for October ticked up to 5.3% from 5.2%, while the net change in employment revealed that the economy lost...

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JFD Review

Monday, 02 Dec, 2019 / 8:45

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