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Weekly forex forecast for 14 -Nov-2016

Fundamental analysis: Donald Trump's victory in the elections in the United States has made a chaos in the market, which resulted in a false falling dollar, which was replaced by the strong growth of the US currency, which has shown a real mood of market participants.
It is worth noting the change in the mood of the largest banks by merging Trump on the dollar. If earlier it was expected that his victory would weaken the US currency against the euro, pound, yen and Swiss franc, but now most of the major "players" agree that Trump can make the dollar strong again. The basis for such arguments is Trump’s offers to change fiscal policy towards the reduction of taxes, as well as the reform of corporate taxation. These changes may support the US currency even more.
Also, despite the decrease in the probability of a rate hike in December, from 70% to 56%, many economists agree that good data on the country's economy will not change and will push the Fed to raise % rates.
Now a fundamental outlook for EUR/USD is negative.
Technical analysis: we are seeing a local bearish trend after the announcement of the US election results. It is important that the price falls at high volume.
We need to highlight the new level - 1.0957 - 1.0975, where huge volume was concentrated, which pushed the price down.

Important economic news in the coming week:
11.30 - CPI y/y in Great Britain;
15.30 - Core Retail Sales m/m and Retail Sales m/m in the USA;
11.30 - Average Earnings Index 3m/y and Claimant Count Change in Great Britain;
15.30 - PPI m/m in the USA;
2.30 - Employment Change and Unemployment Rate in Australia;
11.30 - Retail Sales m/m in Great Britain;
15.30 - Building Permits, CPI m/m and Core CPI m/m in the USA;

15.30 - Core CPI m/m in Canada;

Monday, 14 Nov, 2016 / 5:16

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