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Weekly Forex Forecast 28 Nov

Fundamental analysis: Thanksgiving Day and low activity of market participants slightly slowed the growth of the US dollar at the end of the last week. Despite this, the excellent macroeconomic data coupled with a high probability of a rate hike at the December meeting by the Fed make a further strengthening of the US currency the most obvious scenario.
This week will come last in this year's data on the US labor market. Of course, it will be very important, especially before the meeting on 13-14 December, but many economists agree that rates will be risen even despite of negative data.
Therefore, despite the correction of the EUR/USD on Thursday-Friday, a further fall of this tool is the most likely scenario.

Fundamental analysis: the pound continues to be in consolidation after the words of the Prime Minister which calmed down market participants and, as a consequence, supported the pound. On the other hand, the dollar continues to strengthen and put pressure on the GBP/USD, which has led to the consolidation of the price.
Next week, the focus will be on the payrolls that can change the balance of power.
In the meantime, the fundamental outlook is neutral for this pair.

Fundamental analysis: despite the slowdown in growth of the dollar, USD/JPY pair continues to show upward trend. The main reason is the weakening of the Japanese yen due to the tightening of the labor market.
In addition, the possible increase in Fed rates, likely to be the reason for the outflow of capital from Japan and the yen will weaken even more.
While the yen forecast is disappointing.

Fundamental analysis: gold, like silver, became a “hostage” of the strong dollar. Excellent macroeconomic US data on Wednesday has hit on the XAU/USD pair even more.
Further strengthening of the dollar further increase its attractiveness for investors and raise rates in December could be the final blow for the gold.
This week, all eyes are on payrolls, but even in the case of the release of data, which will be lower than expected, further growth of the US currency is the most obvious scenario.

Important economic news on this week (UK time):
14.00 - ECB President Draghi Speaks;
13.30 – Prelim GDP q/q in the USA;
15.00 - CB Consumer Confidence in the USA;
All day – OPEC Meetings;
12.30 - ECB President Draghi Speaks;
15.00 - ISM Manufacturing PMI in the USA;
0.30 - Retail Sales m/m in Australia;
13.30 - Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate in the USA;
13.30 - Employment Change and Unemployment Rate in Canada;

Sunday, 27 Nov, 2016 / 10:28

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