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USDCAD, USDCHF And CADCHF: Technical Checks


Having bounced from four-month old ascending trend-line support, the USDCAD now confronts 1.2950-55 important resistance-area, comprising 100-day SMA and 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its May – July upside, ahead of monthly release of Canadian job details. Given the Employment change meets its upbeat forecast, chances of its pullback to 1.2900 – 1.2890 immediate rest-region becomes brighter, breaking which 50% Fibo level of 1.2850 and the mentioned TL support of 1.2830 are likely important numbers to watch. In case the pair closes below 1.2830, it can immediately plunge to 61.8% Fibo level of 1.2750 and then to the 1.2700 round figure support. Alternatively, weaker job prints can continue extending the pair's upside towards 50-day SMA level of 1.3000, breaking which 23.6% Fibo level of 1.3065 again comes into play. However, a short-term descending trend-line resistance of 1.3120 might restrict the pair's additional advances beyond 1.3065, which if broken can trigger the pair's rally towards 1.3200.


Alike USDCAD, the USDCHF also seems strong and is heading to test 100-day SMA mark of 0.9750 before targeting 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its November 2015 – May 2016 decline, near 0.9780. If the pair continue trading up beyond 0.9780, the 0.9835 and the nine-month old descending trend-line mark of 0.9870-75 become too strong to observe, which if cleared opens the door for its north-run towards 0.9950-55. On the downside, 0.9685 and the 23.6% Fibo level of 0.9650 might confine the pair's near-term downside, breaking which 0.9580 and 0.9540 can come alive on the chart. Should the pair drops below 0.9540, the 0.9500 round figure might act as intermediate halt before it could revisit May lows of 0.9443.


Even if the CADCHF failed to surpass nearly four-month old descending trend-line resistance, 50-day SMA, at 0.7500, quickly followed by an upward slanting TL mark of 0.7488, can continue restricting the pair's downside. If the pair breaks the trend-line support, it can run-down to test 0.7465 and the 0.7415 support levels ahead of printing 0.7360 and the 0.7330 figures. Meanwhile, an upside break of 0.7545 can again fuel the pair to test 0.7575 TL resistance, which if surpassed on a closing basis, enables the pair to flash 0.7635 and the 0.7670 north-side numbers. If the pair continues trading above 0.7670, the 0.7730-35 horizontal resistance could limit its further advances, failing to which chances of its rally towards 0.7800 can't be denied.

Cheers and Safe Trading,

Anil Panchal

Monday, 12 Sep, 2016 / 1:54

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