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On the crucial EU Referendum day, markets punished USD, Gold and JPY as major polls favored the Bremain to rule. The same helped GBP, EUR and commodities, mainly the Crude, register an up-move during Thursday when 65 million population of UK is deciding the fate of Britain. The USDCAD, which has been compressed by the 50-day SMA since early weekdays, dropped below short-term ascending trend-line support of 1.2725, indicating an extended downside towards 1.2650, 1.2590 and the 1.2510 – 1.2500 horizontal support-area. Given the pair keep its south-run intact below 1.2500, the 1.2350 and the 1.2250-45 are likely support numbers which can be seen on the chart. Meanwhile, a daily close above 1.2725 needs to confront with 50-day SMA level of 1.2855 prior to advancing towards 1.2900 and the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of its May 2015 – January 2016 upside, near 1.2970. Should the pair manage to clear 1.2970, the 1.3050 might act as a small barrier ahead of witnessing 1.3160-70 horizontal-resistance region.


While referendum forecasts has been helping the EUR, strong Crude prices supports the CAD, resulting into a less active trading in EURCAD as compared to other EUR pairs. The EURCAD seems presently eyeing to test the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level of April – May up-move, near 1.4430, breaking which nearby upward slanting trend-line, at 1.4400 round figure, and the two-month old ascending trend-line, around 1.4350, are likely supports that the pair traders should observe. If the pair drops below 1.4350, the 1.4300 and the 1.4270 may hold the doors for its re-test to 1.4180. On the upside, 1.4550, immediate descending trend-line of 1.4570 and the 38.2% Fibo level of 1.4580, may entertain the pair's pullbacks from the current levels. Given the pair's break above 1.4580, the 1.4620 becomes a rest point before challenging a broader descending trend-line resistance of 1.4655, clearing which chances of its rally to 1.4730 and the 1.4760 can't be denied.


CADJPY's break above 82.00 propelled the pair towards confronting a short-term descending trend-line trigger at 83.10, which if broken can further extend its recent up-move towards 84.20-25 region, comprising 100-day SMA & 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its June 2015 – January 2016. Moreover, pair's additional advance beyond 84.25 enables it to print 85.40 and the 86.00 round figure mark on the chart. However, pair's inability to clear the 83.10 on a closing basis can indicate its readiness to test 81.00 and the 80.00 psychological magnet prior to revisiting the January lows around 78.90. If at all the pair drops below 78.90, the 78.10, 77.00 and the 76.00 are likely consecutive downside numbers that it needs to witness ahead of resting at 61.8% FE level of 75.00.


Even if the AUDCAD closed above 0.9610-20 horizontal resistance on Wednesday, the pair seems failing to sustain its breakout and is likely revisiting the mentioned area, breaking which 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of September – December 2015 upside, near 0.9540 can hold its further downside. Further, pair's additional decline below 0.9540, can recall 0.9500 and the 0.9430 supports. Alternatively, 50% Fibo level of 0.9660 and the 0.9700 mark, including 200-day SMA, are likely nearby resistances that it needs to clear before aiming the 0.9750 and the 38.2% Fibo point of 0.9780. Should the pair continue rising beyond 0.9780, the 0.9800 round figure mark and the descending trend-line resistance of 0.9870 become important for the pair traders to watch.

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Friday, 24 Jun, 2016 / 3:20

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