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Having failed to sustain a break above 1.3240-50 horizontal resistance-zone, comprising July highs and 200-day SMA mark on D1 chart, the USDCAD presently struggles between 1.3190 and the 1.3240 ahead of US Durable Goods Orders release. Looking at pair's inability to successfully clear important resistance, coupled with expected failure in Algerian talks aimed at Oil production freeze, the pair is more likely to break 1.3240 and can quickly print 1.3300 round figure mark, which also includes 61.8% FE of its August – September up-move, with 1.3275 being intermediate halt. Given the pair manage to surpass 1.3300, chances of its rally to 1.3365 and then to 1.3395 – 1.3400 can't be denied. On the downside, a dip below 1.3190 can print 1.3145 before dragging it to 1.3060 support-confluence made-up of ascending TL and 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement. In case the pair continue declining below 1.3060, the 1.3000 psychological magnet might act as a buffer before it could revisit 1.2945 and the 1.2900 support levels.


Even if the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its January – April downturn, at 1.4915, compressed EURCAD up-moves, the pair continue trading above 200-day SMA and indicates its readiness to again target the 1.4915 mark, which if broken can fuel it to the crucial 1.4990 – 1.5010 horizontal resistance-area. If the CAD weakness propels the pair beyond 1.5010, the 50% Fibo level of 1.5140 and the 1.5250 are expected north-side figures to appear on the chart. However, pair's daily close below 1.4760, 200-day SMA level, can increase the importance of 1.4710, 1.4680 and the 1.4610 supports. Should the pair drops further beneath 1.4610, it becomes vulnerable to re-test 1.4500 round figure support.


Considering the AUDCAD's successful break above 1.0085-90 horizontal mark, the pair becomes more likely to aim for December 2015 highs of 1.0170, breaking which 1.0200 and the 61.8% FE of its May – August up-move, at 1.0230, can please short-term bulls. Given the pair breaks 1.0230 on a closing basis, 1.0250-55 becomes the only hurdle to trigger its northward trajectory towards April 2014 highs of 1.0350. Alternatively, 1.0110 and the 1.0085 might act as immediate important supports to observe, which if broken can fetch the quote to 1.0040 and to the 0.9960-65 supports. In case of the pair's extended decline below 0.9960, the 0.9870-65 multiple support-zone can continue entertaining the pair bears.


Although CADJPY bounced-off from a month old descending trend-channel support, its inability to break the 76.20 resistance on H4 closing signals brighter chances of its pullback to 75.85 and then to 75.60, before dragging it to recent low of 75.40. However, mentioned channel-support, at 75.00 now, could restrict its additional downside, which if broken trigger pair's fresh south-run to 74.50, including 61.8% FE of its April – June plunge, and then to the 74.00 supports. Meanwhile, a clear break of 76.20 can fuel the pair to 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its recent downturn, at 76.55, ahead of challenging 76.75-80 resistance-confluence, including channel-resistance and a horizontal-line. Moreover, pair's break above 76.80 can increase the importance of 77.15 and the 77.50 which are gate-keepers for the 77.85 resistance mark, including 50% Fibo level.

Cheers and Safe Trading,

Anil Panchal

Wednesday, 12 Oct, 2016 / 2:30

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