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USD/JPY could reach 118.00 in 3 months

USD/JPY has fallen in recent weeks as markets’ pricing of reflation has taken a breather and the USD has declined as the lack of information on Trump’s plans for the economy have weighed on investor sentiment.

However, short term, momentum for additional yen weakening is likely to level off as the short JPY trade has become crowded. Moreover, a stretched short yen positioning warrants a larger USD/JPY downside risk and higher sensitivity to investors’ risk appetite. We target the cross at 117in 1M (previously121) and 118 in 3M (119).

Longer term, we expect USD/JPY to stabilise, targeting 118 in 6- 12M, as we expect portfolio outflows out of Japan to counter the underlying appreciation pressure on JPY stemming from fundamentals.

AG Markets Review

Wednesday, 18 Jan, 2017 / 4:34

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