- We think that EURUSD downside is quite limited as the ECB seems very reluctant to extend its quantitative easing programme
- EUR is now heading towards the next key support at 1.0822
- Pound sterling risk is still on the downside against the backdrop of discussions regarding the right - or least harmful - approach to implement the UK’s exit from the European Union
- On the downside, a strong support can be found at around 1.18
- Oil price decline may strenghten as Iraq refuses to cut production
The US dollar continued to strengthen in overnight trading as the pound sterling and the euro kept falling. The single currency was down 0.10% against the greenback as it once again tested the multi-month low at 1.0860. After breaking the strong 1.0950 support last Thursday in the wake of the ECB meeting, the single currency is now heading towards the next key support at 1.0822 (low from March 10th). If broken, the road will be wide open for further decline towards 1.07, then 1.05. However, we think that the downside is quite limited as the ECB seems very reluctant to extend its quantitative easing programme.
The pound sterling took another hit on Monday as it slid 0.20% against the greenback, down to 1.2211. Overall, the cable continued to stabilise within the 1.2250 - 1.24 range. Risk is still on the downside against the backdrop of discussions regarding the right - or least harmful - approach to implementing the UK’s exit from the European Union. On the downside, a strong support can be found at around 1.18, while on the upside, the 1.24-1.2450 will remain the main resistance.
Most commodity currencies were trading higher in Asia in spite of a drop in crude oil prices following comments from Iraq that it is unwilling to join the OPEC cut. The Brent was down 0.30% this morning, while in the US, the West Texas Intermediate, slid almost 0.50% to 50.60. Since the beginning of October, crude oil prices have been rallying strongly as investors were betting that the oil cartel would be able to limit supply in order to prop up prices. Even Saudi Arabia and Iran appeared to be ready to make concessions as they reached a pre-agreement in late September at the Algiers energy meeting. However, with Iraq’s refusal to join the common effort, it could trigger refusal from other OPEC members also.
In the equity market, Asian regional markets followed Wall Street’s lead and extended gains across the board. The Nikkei was up 0.30%, while the broader Topix index edged up 0.17%. In mainland China, the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices were up 1.23% and 0.95% respectively. Offshore, the Hang Seng was up 0.38% and the Taiex edged up 0.17%. In Europe, futures were all wearing green, suggesting a higher open.
Today traders will be watching PMIs from France, Germany and the euro zone; manufacturing PMI and several Fed members’ speech (Dudley, Bullard, Evans and Powell).